Record: 33-44, -0.10
Today’s free pick will be on the Giants beating Atlanta by more than 3.
Atlanta played a great regular season last year, but when it came to the playoffs they stumbled against Super Bowl Champs Green Bay. This year they did a good job as well posting a 10-6 record which is better than the Giants‘.
They have some nice weapons in RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White on offense. They put up the score at times but if you look closer at it, you can see they struggled against better teams. The only good teams they beat was Detroit and maybe Tennessee.
The Giants only had a 9-7 record qualifying for postseason play as the worst of then remaining NFC teams. Several weeks ago, nobody (including me) would have bet a cent on the Giants making the playoffs. Since then, however they played very focused and concentrated which reminds me of their Super Bowl run in 2007.
They are very balanced on offense and defense. With Eli Manning they have a very smart playmaker who even showed late game comeback abilities, especially lately. With Jacobs there’s also a good RB as well as a nice receiving staff – among them deep threat Cruz on whom the Falcons defense has to have two or four eyes.
On defense they have a tough line which can put a lot of pressure on Turner. The secondary behind Rolle is also very smart.
In all, the Giants have the home field advantage against a Falcons team that usually plays on turf. The Giants mediocre record shouldn’t scare you as they lost to some bad teams but won or played tough against the good teams as Green Bay when they lost 35-38, the same result they lost to the Patriots in 2007. I don’t believe in such things but when I see them playing a Super Bowl run as in 2007 wouldn’t surprise me that much. Giants –3 is the pick with 3 units at 2.07 or +107.
DG
Posts mit dem Label nfl werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label nfl werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
1/23/2011
Free Play: Pittsburgh -4
Record: 31-44, -8.12
This is a late pick as I see Green Bay having the big lead in Chicago.
I saw the Jets playing two emotional games against the Colts with revenge on their minds for the Conference Championship loss last year, while last week they had revenge on their minds as well playing at the Pats where they were blown out badly during the season. Probably, they are a bit exhausted which could show later in the game. They don't have the revenge factor here as they beat Pittsburgh at the same place as tonight. So this time it should be the Steelers to take revenge. They had an off week and played their rivals Baltimore last week. In the beginning they looked a bit rusty but later in that game they came back to turn the game around.
Another thing is the Packers seemingly to win in Chicago. It is very improbable that two no 6 seeded teams march on through the playoffs to the SuperBowl winning all games on the road. So if Green Bay wins and covers its spread I will take Pittsburgh at -4 and odds of 1.962 or -104 with 4 units. If the Bears turn the game around I will go down to 2 units. Good Luck
DG
This is a late pick as I see Green Bay having the big lead in Chicago.
I saw the Jets playing two emotional games against the Colts with revenge on their minds for the Conference Championship loss last year, while last week they had revenge on their minds as well playing at the Pats where they were blown out badly during the season. Probably, they are a bit exhausted which could show later in the game. They don't have the revenge factor here as they beat Pittsburgh at the same place as tonight. So this time it should be the Steelers to take revenge. They had an off week and played their rivals Baltimore last week. In the beginning they looked a bit rusty but later in that game they came back to turn the game around.
Another thing is the Packers seemingly to win in Chicago. It is very improbable that two no 6 seeded teams march on through the playoffs to the SuperBowl winning all games on the road. So if Green Bay wins and covers its spread I will take Pittsburgh at -4 and odds of 1.962 or -104 with 4 units. If the Bears turn the game around I will go down to 2 units. Good Luck
DG
1/08/2011
Free Pick: New York Jets ML
Record: 30-44, -9.27
As the first underdog pulled the upset I actually don’t wanna put a play on the second underdog as well. But as I’m pretty convinced of the second one I will put a small play on them.
I had the Jets a year ago as they took a 17-3 lead but were worn down by the potent Colts offense. This year the Jets are even better in my eyes as their offense is not that one dimensional as last year. Their defense is still very strong while the Colts had big problems during the regular season. They had to fight for each and every single game, especially lately. Maybe that shows today later in the game. The only reason they won their division was the great play by Manning.
The one thing that moves me to pick the Jets again is the revenge situation. It seems that they are very hungry and motivated for that game. I will put a unit on the Jets at 2.15 or +115.
Good Luck.
DG
As the first underdog pulled the upset I actually don’t wanna put a play on the second underdog as well. But as I’m pretty convinced of the second one I will put a small play on them.
I had the Jets a year ago as they took a 17-3 lead but were worn down by the potent Colts offense. This year the Jets are even better in my eyes as their offense is not that one dimensional as last year. Their defense is still very strong while the Colts had big problems during the regular season. They had to fight for each and every single game, especially lately. Maybe that shows today later in the game. The only reason they won their division was the great play by Manning.
The one thing that moves me to pick the Jets again is the revenge situation. It seems that they are very hungry and motivated for that game. I will put a unit on the Jets at 2.15 or +115.
Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks ML
Record: 29-44, -13.50
After a long break I am back posting the first wild card game.
I'll back the Seahawks here on the money line. As you know they are the first team ever to get to the play offs despite posting a losing record. They haven't done anything special this year while the Saints did a good job as the reigning champs. I cannot give you any convincing stats that will point to Seattle as the winning team but it is always dangerous to play against such teams. It is a pick based on psychological opportunities as I call them. I remember a few years ago when I cashed with the Giants when they went to the Super Bowl. They were the dogs in each post season contest but developed a winner mentality.
The same effect could play a part today as nobody believes in Seattle. They are a play off team that gets 10 points at home! So if they lose it is no desaster, they've got nothing to lose. In contrary, they have the chance to kick out the reigning champs. I'm sure they will fight for their lives and maybe the Saints underestimate the challenge they will be facing. The weather will be cold and possibly wet which won't be negative for Seattle although I believe NO will be ready for that.
To sum it up, I think odds are way too high on Seattle and often we found the case that defending champs were kicked out because everyone puts in everything against them. Maybe the Saints are cool enough to beat them, but if they do so it will be a blowout so the spread doesn't look attractive to me, while a shot with a unit on the Seahawks at 5.23 or +423 is worth tonight.
Stay tuned as there may be a second pick tonight. Tomorrow it's too difficult to call a winner, but the Jets/Colts matchup might be a good opportunity.
After a long break I am back posting the first wild card game.
I'll back the Seahawks here on the money line. As you know they are the first team ever to get to the play offs despite posting a losing record. They haven't done anything special this year while the Saints did a good job as the reigning champs. I cannot give you any convincing stats that will point to Seattle as the winning team but it is always dangerous to play against such teams. It is a pick based on psychological opportunities as I call them. I remember a few years ago when I cashed with the Giants when they went to the Super Bowl. They were the dogs in each post season contest but developed a winner mentality.
The same effect could play a part today as nobody believes in Seattle. They are a play off team that gets 10 points at home! So if they lose it is no desaster, they've got nothing to lose. In contrary, they have the chance to kick out the reigning champs. I'm sure they will fight for their lives and maybe the Saints underestimate the challenge they will be facing. The weather will be cold and possibly wet which won't be negative for Seattle although I believe NO will be ready for that.
To sum it up, I think odds are way too high on Seattle and often we found the case that defending champs were kicked out because everyone puts in everything against them. Maybe the Saints are cool enough to beat them, but if they do so it will be a blowout so the spread doesn't look attractive to me, while a shot with a unit on the Seahawks at 5.23 or +423 is worth tonight.
Stay tuned as there may be a second pick tonight. Tomorrow it's too difficult to call a winner, but the Jets/Colts matchup might be a good opportunity.
1/24/2010
Free Pick: New York Jets ML
Record: 29-43, -11.50
Today's free pick will be on the New York Jets to win outright.
I read some analyses for that game and everywhere I saw people saying the Colts can't lose this one. Some said the Jets won't have the luck of two blown Field Goals again as was the case in San Diego. That may be true but the Chargers have still one of the best if offenses in the league, along with the Saints and Cards. So holding that offense to 17 points is very good and it's no coincidence that the Jets' defense is No 1 in the NFL. Others said there has never been a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. That's true as well, but some time it will happen, so why not now. Two years ago Eli Manning was close to a rookie and played pretty much like Sanchez now not throwing bombs and avoiding mistakes.
The Jets own the best defense and the best running game which will be a plus against Indy's bad run defense which kept Baltimore to less than 100 yards but an average of 4.6. This was because Baltimore fell behind early by two TDs and they had to throw. So it wasn't really good run defense by the Colts. This will be the key here for New York, not falling too far behind early. If Sanchez has to make big plays they'll fail, but the longer it is close the better are the Jets' chances. And Manning's targets aren't very playoff proven apart from Reggie Wayne who should be covered by Revis and Manning better not throw into his direction.
Nice value for the dog here which I will play at 4.11 or +311 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on the New York Jets to win outright.
I read some analyses for that game and everywhere I saw people saying the Colts can't lose this one. Some said the Jets won't have the luck of two blown Field Goals again as was the case in San Diego. That may be true but the Chargers have still one of the best if offenses in the league, along with the Saints and Cards. So holding that offense to 17 points is very good and it's no coincidence that the Jets' defense is No 1 in the NFL. Others said there has never been a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. That's true as well, but some time it will happen, so why not now. Two years ago Eli Manning was close to a rookie and played pretty much like Sanchez now not throwing bombs and avoiding mistakes.
The Jets own the best defense and the best running game which will be a plus against Indy's bad run defense which kept Baltimore to less than 100 yards but an average of 4.6. This was because Baltimore fell behind early by two TDs and they had to throw. So it wasn't really good run defense by the Colts. This will be the key here for New York, not falling too far behind early. If Sanchez has to make big plays they'll fail, but the longer it is close the better are the Jets' chances. And Manning's targets aren't very playoff proven apart from Reggie Wayne who should be covered by Revis and Manning better not throw into his direction.
Nice value for the dog here which I will play at 4.11 or +311 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/20/2009
Free Pick: Seattle -7
Record: 29-42, -8.50
Second pick tonight will be on the Seahawks hosting Tampa Bay.
I played Seattle several times this season, especially at home. They are at 5-8 for the season, but at home they have a 4-2 record. They lost to Arizona and Chicago and won St Louis, Jacksonville, Detroit and San Francisco. They suffer from the injury of Nate Burleson, of course, but they still have some other nice receivers behind Houshmandzadeh. Hasselbeck had a good season, too, although he was injured again.
Tampa is really bad. They have a bad offense as neither Freeman nor Johnson can do anything for the passing game both slightly over .50 in completions throwing twice as much picks as TDs. They are 6th in offensive rushing, but Cadillac William's average of 3.8 yards per rush is nothing special. It's just beacause they run more often than other teams. They are defensively 3rd against the run, but unfortunately Seattle is mainly a passing team, and their passing defense is 23rd. Their only chance would be heavy rain and strong wind in Qwest Field tonight. That won't happen, there will probably be slight rain, but that shouldn't be enough to help their defense.
I was surprised that the spread went down here, so I'll take it with 3 units at 2.04. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick tonight will be on the Seahawks hosting Tampa Bay.
I played Seattle several times this season, especially at home. They are at 5-8 for the season, but at home they have a 4-2 record. They lost to Arizona and Chicago and won St Louis, Jacksonville, Detroit and San Francisco. They suffer from the injury of Nate Burleson, of course, but they still have some other nice receivers behind Houshmandzadeh. Hasselbeck had a good season, too, although he was injured again.
Tampa is really bad. They have a bad offense as neither Freeman nor Johnson can do anything for the passing game both slightly over .50 in completions throwing twice as much picks as TDs. They are 6th in offensive rushing, but Cadillac William's average of 3.8 yards per rush is nothing special. It's just beacause they run more often than other teams. They are defensively 3rd against the run, but unfortunately Seattle is mainly a passing team, and their passing defense is 23rd. Their only chance would be heavy rain and strong wind in Qwest Field tonight. That won't happen, there will probably be slight rain, but that shouldn't be enough to help their defense.
I was surprised that the spread went down here, so I'll take it with 3 units at 2.04. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Kansas City -2.5
Record: 29-42, -8.50
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/06/2009
Free Pick: Chicago -9.5
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Arizona ML
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/05/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee ML
Record 27-40, -8.36 (1 pending)
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
11/15/2009
Free Picks: StLouis +14 and Detroit +17
Record: 26-39, -7.26
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
10/25/2009
Free Pick: Tampa Bay +14.5
Record: 26-37, -1.26
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/18/2009
Free Pick: Philadelphia-13.5
Record: 25-35, -0.76
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/11/2009
Free Pick: Seattle-1
Record: 24-34, -0.86
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/06/2009
Intermission
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
10/04/2009
Play on Kansas City +9 and ML
Record: 23-31, -0.68
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
9/27/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 20-26, +1.51
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/20/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 16-22, +1.87
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/13/2009
Play on Green Bay -4.5
Record: 11-19, -3.52 (one pending)
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Kansas City +13
Record: 11-19, -3.52
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Abonnieren
Posts (Atom)