Record: 22-31, -6.14
Today I will play on the Northwestern Wildcats who visit the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue runs the ball well behind RB Bolden, but the passing game was too inconsitent so far. QB Joey Elliot only completed 60.1 % of his passes with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Their Defense is not very competitive, especially against the run.
Northwestern is always tough to beat and they were nice over the last seasons. QB Mike Kafka showed that he can throw this year with 72.2 % completions, 5 TDs vs 3 INTs and over 1000 yards passing. He is also a great runner but hasn't showed it so far this season. Today he can against one of the weaker run defenses of Purdue. They could miss top RB Simmons again here, so Kafka should run today. But they still have some other runners who can carry the ball over the field.
Expect a nice game from Northwestern who has a decent shot at a win here, I will take them on the Money Line at 3.73 or +273 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/03/2009
10/02/2009
Play on Seattle
Record: 22-29, -1.14
Second pick will be on Seattle who will play against Texas.
Seattle goes with Ian Snell(7-10, 4.86) who came over from Pittsburgh and went 5-2, 4.17 ERA for Seattle since then although he changed to the better AL. He doesn't go too many innings but those 5 or six he usually goes are mostly solid, with 2 or 3 exceptions (for Seattle). His main problem remains that he walks too many, but as long as he performs like he did lately I'm still fine with it. He is also 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA against Texas. The Rangers send Brandon McCarthy(7-4, 4.47) who played well over the season but in his last few starts he was very inconsistent and Texas lost all of his last 3 starts. He is surprisingly better at home(hitting ballpark) as he went 3-3, 5.79 on the road. Against Seattle he is also bad at 1-2, 6.46.
Seattle played well lately, they swept Oakland this week and they are a good home team with a 46-32 record. Texas blew its postseason chances but they had enormous problems with scoring during September as two of their best hitters are injured. Yesterday they showed a sign of life beating the first place Angels but I don't think they have any motivation here in Seattle.
So I will put 2 units on Seattle at 1.92 or -108. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick will be on Seattle who will play against Texas.
Seattle goes with Ian Snell(7-10, 4.86) who came over from Pittsburgh and went 5-2, 4.17 ERA for Seattle since then although he changed to the better AL. He doesn't go too many innings but those 5 or six he usually goes are mostly solid, with 2 or 3 exceptions (for Seattle). His main problem remains that he walks too many, but as long as he performs like he did lately I'm still fine with it. He is also 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA against Texas. The Rangers send Brandon McCarthy(7-4, 4.47) who played well over the season but in his last few starts he was very inconsistent and Texas lost all of his last 3 starts. He is surprisingly better at home(hitting ballpark) as he went 3-3, 5.79 on the road. Against Seattle he is also bad at 1-2, 6.46.
Seattle played well lately, they swept Oakland this week and they are a good home team with a 46-32 record. Texas blew its postseason chances but they had enormous problems with scoring during September as two of their best hitters are injured. Yesterday they showed a sign of life beating the first place Angels but I don't think they have any motivation here in Seattle.
So I will put 2 units on Seattle at 1.92 or -108. Good Luck.
DG
Play on San Diego
Record: 22-29, -1.14
First pick for tonight will be on San Diego hosting the San Francisco Giants. Probably there will be a second pick tonight.
San Diego sends Kevin Correia(12-10, 3.89) who will play against his former teammates. He has ahd a nice season so far, especially in his last few starts. In September he was able to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 3.89 and his last two games were great going 7 scoreless innings last week and posting a 6-hitter in his last outing. He also plays here in the best pitcher park against one of the lesser hitting teams of the Giants. Against them he is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He will be opposed to Barry Zito(10-13, 4.10) who played a nice season but his form goes the other way than Correia's as he's risen his ERA to over 4 again. His last two games show that decline as he went 4.1 and 4 innings allowing 4 and 3 ERs. He is also below average against San Diego at 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA.
One of the main reasons for the pick is San Diego finishing strong. They went 17-9 during September behind good pitching but they also hit well mostly. Here in PETCO Park they even have a winning record at 41-37. San Francisco on the other hand blew their postseason chances in September going 13-14. They are the best home team in the NL at 52-29, but on the road they are nothing special. The Padres also had a day of rest yesterday.
Looks like good odds for San Diego at 1.80 or -125 so I will put 3 units on them. Good Luck.
DG
First pick for tonight will be on San Diego hosting the San Francisco Giants. Probably there will be a second pick tonight.
San Diego sends Kevin Correia(12-10, 3.89) who will play against his former teammates. He has ahd a nice season so far, especially in his last few starts. In September he was able to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 3.89 and his last two games were great going 7 scoreless innings last week and posting a 6-hitter in his last outing. He also plays here in the best pitcher park against one of the lesser hitting teams of the Giants. Against them he is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He will be opposed to Barry Zito(10-13, 4.10) who played a nice season but his form goes the other way than Correia's as he's risen his ERA to over 4 again. His last two games show that decline as he went 4.1 and 4 innings allowing 4 and 3 ERs. He is also below average against San Diego at 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA.
One of the main reasons for the pick is San Diego finishing strong. They went 17-9 during September behind good pitching but they also hit well mostly. Here in PETCO Park they even have a winning record at 41-37. San Francisco on the other hand blew their postseason chances in September going 13-14. They are the best home team in the NL at 52-29, but on the road they are nothing special. The Padres also had a day of rest yesterday.
Looks like good odds for San Diego at 1.80 or -125 so I will put 3 units on them. Good Luck.
DG
10/01/2009
Play on Cle/Bos over 9.5
Record: 22-28, +0.86
Today's play will be on the over between the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians. The line is at 9.5 at the moment.
The Red Sox go with Jon Lester(14-8, 3.52) who played another great season. He has won a lot of games lately, but his form seems to go downwards now. In his last two games he allowed 3 homers and first he went six innings with 3 ERs on 10 hits, last weekend he went only 2.1 innings with 5 ERs on 8 hits and 3 walks. He is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland but his ERA of 4.76 isn't good at all. Cleveland sends rookie Carlos Carrasco(0-3, 9.00) who lost 3 of his 4 starts while his team lost all four. He never allowed less than 4 ERs and only once went more than 5 innings. Not a guy you should count on.
The Indians have come back lately going 4-2 in their last 6 and they averaged 4.8 runs during their last 5 games although they were scoreless in the second game yesterday. I think they should score some runs as Boston's bullpen has had a lot of work lately. Boston with its great 52-25 home record should score tonight, too. They need their offense going shortly before playoffs against the Angels start. They lost 6 straight being swept by the Yankees and here at home against Toronto. They should also show their fans something as they lost 0-12 yesterday. They should be able to do so as they played a much better pitcher in Halladay yesterday.
I expect a high scoring affair putting 2 units on the over 9.5 at 2.00 or +100. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on the over between the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians. The line is at 9.5 at the moment.
The Red Sox go with Jon Lester(14-8, 3.52) who played another great season. He has won a lot of games lately, but his form seems to go downwards now. In his last two games he allowed 3 homers and first he went six innings with 3 ERs on 10 hits, last weekend he went only 2.1 innings with 5 ERs on 8 hits and 3 walks. He is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland but his ERA of 4.76 isn't good at all. Cleveland sends rookie Carlos Carrasco(0-3, 9.00) who lost 3 of his 4 starts while his team lost all four. He never allowed less than 4 ERs and only once went more than 5 innings. Not a guy you should count on.
The Indians have come back lately going 4-2 in their last 6 and they averaged 4.8 runs during their last 5 games although they were scoreless in the second game yesterday. I think they should score some runs as Boston's bullpen has had a lot of work lately. Boston with its great 52-25 home record should score tonight, too. They need their offense going shortly before playoffs against the Angels start. They lost 6 straight being swept by the Yankees and here at home against Toronto. They should also show their fans something as they lost 0-12 yesterday. They should be able to do so as they played a much better pitcher in Halladay yesterday.
I expect a high scoring affair putting 2 units on the over 9.5 at 2.00 or +100. Good Luck.
DG
9/30/2009
Play on Cleveland
Record: 21-28, -0.02
Today I will play the first game between the Indians and the White Sox.
We see Fausto Carmona(4-12, 6.62) for Cleveland who had a terrible season and was up and down all year long. His last start against Baltimore was one of his better performances picking up a rare win. Against Chicago he is below average at 3-3 and a 5.05 ERA. The good thing is he usually pitches some innings but even if he doesn't the Indians bullpen should be rested as they didn't play yesterday and on Monday Laffey went more than 7 innings. The White Sox send Carlos Torres(1-1, 5.91) and the rookie has been better from the bullpen so far. He had a good start at the Cubs but the others were average to really bad. Today he gets another chance to start against the team he suffered 4 ERs in 3.1 innings this year. So the bonus of never being seen by the Indians doesn't work here. He averaged only 4.1 innings in his starts.
The Indians lost 15 of 16 during September but have come back winning 3 of 4 recently. They lost 6-1 on Monday so the break yesterday should be fine for them. The White Sox have had a bad stretch as well but we first have to wait if it is over since they won just that Monday game. The Indians are also slightly better at home than Chicago on the road, so at least here they should be competitive. I will put a unit on the Indians at 1.88 or -112. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play the first game between the Indians and the White Sox.
We see Fausto Carmona(4-12, 6.62) for Cleveland who had a terrible season and was up and down all year long. His last start against Baltimore was one of his better performances picking up a rare win. Against Chicago he is below average at 3-3 and a 5.05 ERA. The good thing is he usually pitches some innings but even if he doesn't the Indians bullpen should be rested as they didn't play yesterday and on Monday Laffey went more than 7 innings. The White Sox send Carlos Torres(1-1, 5.91) and the rookie has been better from the bullpen so far. He had a good start at the Cubs but the others were average to really bad. Today he gets another chance to start against the team he suffered 4 ERs in 3.1 innings this year. So the bonus of never being seen by the Indians doesn't work here. He averaged only 4.1 innings in his starts.
The Indians lost 15 of 16 during September but have come back winning 3 of 4 recently. They lost 6-1 on Monday so the break yesterday should be fine for them. The White Sox have had a bad stretch as well but we first have to wait if it is over since they won just that Monday game. The Indians are also slightly better at home than Chicago on the road, so at least here they should be competitive. I will put a unit on the Indians at 1.88 or -112. Good Luck.
DG
9/29/2009
Play on Boston RL
Record: 21-27, +1.98
Not much time today. In short: I like the Red Sox tonight who can seal their wild card spot with a win. They should do so winning easily with Clay Buchholz(7-3, 3.21) on the mound. He plays great ball right now winning 6 of his last 8 while his team won all of those 8 games. He is also 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Toronto. Ricky Romero(12-9, 4.28) who starts for the Jays started great but in his last ten Toronto lost 8 and only once he allowed less than 3 ERs rising his ERA from 3.66 to 4.28 during that span. He is also 0-3 in four starts against Boston with a 8.83 ERA.
No question for me that Boston will win this one big to celebrate the playoff spot. For sure they don't want to let the champagne become bad after they had to keep it in the fridge yesterday. A play on Boston on the run line is the choice at 1.89 or -111 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Not much time today. In short: I like the Red Sox tonight who can seal their wild card spot with a win. They should do so winning easily with Clay Buchholz(7-3, 3.21) on the mound. He plays great ball right now winning 6 of his last 8 while his team won all of those 8 games. He is also 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Toronto. Ricky Romero(12-9, 4.28) who starts for the Jays started great but in his last ten Toronto lost 8 and only once he allowed less than 3 ERs rising his ERA from 3.66 to 4.28 during that span. He is also 0-3 in four starts against Boston with a 8.83 ERA.
No question for me that Boston will win this one big to celebrate the playoff spot. For sure they don't want to let the champagne become bad after they had to keep it in the fridge yesterday. A play on Boston on the run line is the choice at 1.89 or -111 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/28/2009
Play on Toronto
Record: 20-27, -0.49
Today I will play Toronto visiting Boston with a small play.
Of course the pitching matchup goes to Boston who give the ball to Josh Beckett(16-6, 3.78) against Scott Richmond(7-10, 5.32) who will start for Toronto. Richmond played very bad over his last few starts but he showed a little improvement in his last outing getting the win in a 7-3 win over Baltimore when he allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. Hopefully this turns his performance around and he will be better tonight. Beckett's ERA rised from 3.10 to 3.78 in his last 8 games. He's also only 3-2 in his last 10 with his team going 5-5 in those games.His last start looked good with 2 ERs in 6 innings against Kansas City, but don't forget he allowed 12 hits and a walk, so this 2 ERs seem very lucky. Both pitchers are bad against tonight's opponent. Richmond is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but this was in only 2 starts while Beckett is 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in 12 starts.
More important is the team performance as Boston was swept in New York over the weekend while Toront won 6 of its last 7. It seems as Toronto still wants to collect some more wins while the Sox could be frustrated after the series against their longtime rivals. Boston will get the wild card so there is no need for them to play on a high level in their remaining games.
Nevertheless the Red Sox are the faves here for sure but with odds of 3.47 or +247 you have to give it a shot with a unit. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play Toronto visiting Boston with a small play.
Of course the pitching matchup goes to Boston who give the ball to Josh Beckett(16-6, 3.78) against Scott Richmond(7-10, 5.32) who will start for Toronto. Richmond played very bad over his last few starts but he showed a little improvement in his last outing getting the win in a 7-3 win over Baltimore when he allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. Hopefully this turns his performance around and he will be better tonight. Beckett's ERA rised from 3.10 to 3.78 in his last 8 games. He's also only 3-2 in his last 10 with his team going 5-5 in those games.His last start looked good with 2 ERs in 6 innings against Kansas City, but don't forget he allowed 12 hits and a walk, so this 2 ERs seem very lucky. Both pitchers are bad against tonight's opponent. Richmond is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but this was in only 2 starts while Beckett is 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in 12 starts.
More important is the team performance as Boston was swept in New York over the weekend while Toront won 6 of its last 7. It seems as Toronto still wants to collect some more wins while the Sox could be frustrated after the series against their longtime rivals. Boston will get the wild card so there is no need for them to play on a high level in their remaining games.
Nevertheless the Red Sox are the faves here for sure but with odds of 3.47 or +247 you have to give it a shot with a unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/27/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 20-26, +1.51
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
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