Record: 19-26, +0.31
Today's play will be on Troy on the money line. Troy is the much better team for sure. Arkansas State won its first game by 61-0 against bad Missouri Valley and were blown out themselves by Nebraska. They could contend for the Sun Belt title, but they have to win this game. This won't be easy, of course, as Troy won the last three titles. They had to replace some starters, especially on Defense, but they did a good job recruiting very good players as they always do. This defense should be very tough again, especially against the run. The running game is Arkansas State's best piece, but I don't think they can compete with the Troyan's D. Troy lost its first game which was bad for them. In week two they were blown out but expected nothing else against the National Champs Florida. Last week then they got their game going behind QB Levi Brown who was a major upgrade to the team. He passed for more than 400 yards. With the Conference opener ahead they will bring in their peak performance. They beat ASU the last two years by a combined score of 62-9.
No question Troy should win this one even if ASU had an extra week to prepare. I'll play them at 2.20 or +120 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/26/2009
9/25/2009
Play on Detroit
Record: 18-25, -1.13
Second pick for tonight will be on the Detroit Tigers playing in Chicago at the White Sox.
We see Detroit with good chances for a playoff spot and the division title as they play in the worst division in the AL. The are hunted by Minnesota who play a series in Kansas City this weekend and probaly take two or three wins there. So Detroit has to show something here in Chicago. They had a 3-9 stretch but are back now with 4 wins in a row. Their offense scored well, too, in those games. The White Sox went the other direction posting an 8-4 record at the beginning of September but went 1-7 since then losing their last 4.
Last White Sox' win was on Saturday when they sent Jake Peavy(7-6, 4.05) who will start today. He will be matched up against Eddie Bonine(0-0, 5.96) who mostly came from the bullpen this year and only has had two starts so far. One of those starts was against Chicago when he allowed 3 ERs over six innings. The other start was ok, too. I don't expect a great game by him, but he should be decent. I don't expect a good game by Peavy either as he has been injured for a long time and played only one game since then. This Saturday start was a win for him, but he went only 5 innings allowing 3 ERs against a very bad Kansas City team. He said he is not at 100% and that's what you could see on Saturday. Today he will face a much better offense than the Royals'. He also came from San Diego where he pitched in the best pitcher park AND in the worse NL. Now he plays in the superior AL and hasn't got the bonus of a great pitcher park.
Looks to me like the better hitting team should win here which is the Tigers. I thought about playing the over, but I'm not successful in totals, so I'll take Detroit at nice dog odds of 2.59 or +159 with 3 units as well. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick for tonight will be on the Detroit Tigers playing in Chicago at the White Sox.
We see Detroit with good chances for a playoff spot and the division title as they play in the worst division in the AL. The are hunted by Minnesota who play a series in Kansas City this weekend and probaly take two or three wins there. So Detroit has to show something here in Chicago. They had a 3-9 stretch but are back now with 4 wins in a row. Their offense scored well, too, in those games. The White Sox went the other direction posting an 8-4 record at the beginning of September but went 1-7 since then losing their last 4.
Last White Sox' win was on Saturday when they sent Jake Peavy(7-6, 4.05) who will start today. He will be matched up against Eddie Bonine(0-0, 5.96) who mostly came from the bullpen this year and only has had two starts so far. One of those starts was against Chicago when he allowed 3 ERs over six innings. The other start was ok, too. I don't expect a great game by him, but he should be decent. I don't expect a good game by Peavy either as he has been injured for a long time and played only one game since then. This Saturday start was a win for him, but he went only 5 innings allowing 3 ERs against a very bad Kansas City team. He said he is not at 100% and that's what you could see on Saturday. Today he will face a much better offense than the Royals'. He also came from San Diego where he pitched in the best pitcher park AND in the worse NL. Now he plays in the superior AL and hasn't got the bonus of a great pitcher park.
Looks to me like the better hitting team should win here which is the Tigers. I thought about playing the over, but I'm not successful in totals, so I'll take Detroit at nice dog odds of 2.59 or +159 with 3 units as well. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Chicago Cubs
Record: 18-25, -1.13
Today's first play( a second one should follow) will be on the Chicago Cubs who play their second game in San Francisco tonight.
The Cubs go with Carlos Zambrano(8-6, 3.91) opposing Tim Lincecum(14-6, 2.47). Zambrano has played six games now since a minor injury. The first two were bad but since then he has recovered and pitched well although he struggled a bit against Milwaukee last week. He still walks way too many batters as he had 3 or 4 walks in each of his last ten starts with one exception. However his ERA is great with so many walks. His career numbers against SF are good as well at 4-1 and a 3.26 ERA. Additionally, we see his ERA almost 2 runs better on the road than at home. He also has to play for something because the Cubs probably trade him away so he surely wants to show the league his abilities. Lincecum is a Cy Young canditate but probably won't win it because he's got only 14 wins. If he wins his 2, maybe 3 remaining games, he really has a shot on it, although I believe it will go to Cardinal Chris Carpenter. Nevertheless, he has been great all over the year, and his home numbers are better than on the road, and his career numbers against Chicago are very good, too at 3-1, 2.55 ERA. However, his ERA went up a bit over his last few starts and his team went only 4-4 in his last 8. 2 or 3 times he pitched bad, but mostly it is because of lack of run support.
One big point here is the Cubs team as I think. They've played very well of late to at least finish the season with a nice winning record. The Giants go the other direction losing too many games of late, although they had good chances to advance to postseason, but for now it seems very improbable. Maybe they are also a bit frustrated because of that which gives us very nice value on the odds for the Cubs tonight.
So I will play the Cubs as dogs at 2.48 or +148 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's first play( a second one should follow) will be on the Chicago Cubs who play their second game in San Francisco tonight.
The Cubs go with Carlos Zambrano(8-6, 3.91) opposing Tim Lincecum(14-6, 2.47). Zambrano has played six games now since a minor injury. The first two were bad but since then he has recovered and pitched well although he struggled a bit against Milwaukee last week. He still walks way too many batters as he had 3 or 4 walks in each of his last ten starts with one exception. However his ERA is great with so many walks. His career numbers against SF are good as well at 4-1 and a 3.26 ERA. Additionally, we see his ERA almost 2 runs better on the road than at home. He also has to play for something because the Cubs probably trade him away so he surely wants to show the league his abilities. Lincecum is a Cy Young canditate but probably won't win it because he's got only 14 wins. If he wins his 2, maybe 3 remaining games, he really has a shot on it, although I believe it will go to Cardinal Chris Carpenter. Nevertheless, he has been great all over the year, and his home numbers are better than on the road, and his career numbers against Chicago are very good, too at 3-1, 2.55 ERA. However, his ERA went up a bit over his last few starts and his team went only 4-4 in his last 8. 2 or 3 times he pitched bad, but mostly it is because of lack of run support.
One big point here is the Cubs team as I think. They've played very well of late to at least finish the season with a nice winning record. The Giants go the other direction losing too many games of late, although they had good chances to advance to postseason, but for now it seems very improbable. Maybe they are also a bit frustrated because of that which gives us very nice value on the odds for the Cubs tonight.
So I will play the Cubs as dogs at 2.48 or +148 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/23/2009
Play on St Louis
Record: 18-24, +0.87
Today's play will be on St Louis who play in Houston tonight.
The Cardinals send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.22) tonight. After being injured he has started only 13 games this season so far. After a nice start he struggled allowing a bunch of runs, but in his last 5 games he seems to have found his going again lowering his ERA from 8.32 to 6.22 during those 5 games. Although he went just 1-1 in that span his team won 4 of those 5. His career ERA against Houston is also very good at 2.98. He will be opposed to Bud Morris(5-3, 5.07). The rookie played very well in his last 3 starts. In his lone start against St Louis he shut them down over 7 innings. But now they know him a bit better. He piches well, but allows far too many walks, almost one in every two innings.
Should work well for St Louis that came back after losing 5 of six, they now won 3 of their last 4. They are also only two games away from the NL Central title. That gives them a little extra motivation. They own a 43-31 road record which is very good and they scored 18 runs in the first two games against Houston. The Astros team on the other side is the main reason for the pick here. They lost nine in a row and seem to have packed the season in. Firing the coach hasn't worked well, too. Often a team gets a boost when there's a new coach but that wasn't the case here with interim manager Dave Clark losing both being blown out in both games. They will have a day of rest tomorrow where they can get things together for their last ten games. Today they probably want to just get the game over.
With that said the pick will be on St Louis at 1.81 or -123 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on St Louis who play in Houston tonight.
The Cardinals send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.22) tonight. After being injured he has started only 13 games this season so far. After a nice start he struggled allowing a bunch of runs, but in his last 5 games he seems to have found his going again lowering his ERA from 8.32 to 6.22 during those 5 games. Although he went just 1-1 in that span his team won 4 of those 5. His career ERA against Houston is also very good at 2.98. He will be opposed to Bud Morris(5-3, 5.07). The rookie played very well in his last 3 starts. In his lone start against St Louis he shut them down over 7 innings. But now they know him a bit better. He piches well, but allows far too many walks, almost one in every two innings.
Should work well for St Louis that came back after losing 5 of six, they now won 3 of their last 4. They are also only two games away from the NL Central title. That gives them a little extra motivation. They own a 43-31 road record which is very good and they scored 18 runs in the first two games against Houston. The Astros team on the other side is the main reason for the pick here. They lost nine in a row and seem to have packed the season in. Firing the coach hasn't worked well, too. Often a team gets a boost when there's a new coach but that wasn't the case here with interim manager Dave Clark losing both being blown out in both games. They will have a day of rest tomorrow where they can get things together for their last ten games. Today they probably want to just get the game over.
With that said the pick will be on St Louis at 1.81 or -123 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/22/2009
Play on Colorado RL
Record: 18-23, +2.87
Today I recommend a play on Colorado on the run line hosting the San Diego Padres.
Colorado goes with Jorge De La Rosa(15-9, 4.17) opposing San Diego's Edward Mujica(3-4, 3.36) whose ERA looks better than De La Rosa's, but remember Dan Diego plays its games in the best pitcher park in the league while Colorado has the best hitter park. Mujica also isn't used to start games, he's only had two so far this season. Prior to that he came from the bullpen. In those two starts he dedn't reach the 5 inning mark though he pitched well but again both were in PETCO Park. De La Rosa is 7-2 in his last 10 and in his last four he never allowed more than one run. He walks too many but on the other hand he doesn't allow hits. He's winless against San Diego but that should change tonight as eleven days ago he played them and allowed only a run thrugh seven innings but didn't get the win because his teammates began to score later.
San Diego played well of late, but their last two series were against cupcakes Arizona and Pittsburgh. I can't believe they will even win this one. Colorado had a bad stretch in series at San Diego and San Francisco but came back recently winning 3 of their last 4. Of course they have to defend their Wild Card spot and if they want to keep it they have to win such matchups where the better team send the much better pitcher.
Looks like a big win by more than a run, so I will play on Colorado RL at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I recommend a play on Colorado on the run line hosting the San Diego Padres.
Colorado goes with Jorge De La Rosa(15-9, 4.17) opposing San Diego's Edward Mujica(3-4, 3.36) whose ERA looks better than De La Rosa's, but remember Dan Diego plays its games in the best pitcher park in the league while Colorado has the best hitter park. Mujica also isn't used to start games, he's only had two so far this season. Prior to that he came from the bullpen. In those two starts he dedn't reach the 5 inning mark though he pitched well but again both were in PETCO Park. De La Rosa is 7-2 in his last 10 and in his last four he never allowed more than one run. He walks too many but on the other hand he doesn't allow hits. He's winless against San Diego but that should change tonight as eleven days ago he played them and allowed only a run thrugh seven innings but didn't get the win because his teammates began to score later.
San Diego played well of late, but their last two series were against cupcakes Arizona and Pittsburgh. I can't believe they will even win this one. Colorado had a bad stretch in series at San Diego and San Francisco but came back recently winning 3 of their last 4. Of course they have to defend their Wild Card spot and if they want to keep it they have to win such matchups where the better team send the much better pitcher.
Looks like a big win by more than a run, so I will play on Colorado RL at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/21/2009
Play on San Francisco
Record: 17-23, +1.81
Today we see the Giants visiting Arizona.
Arizona sends Doug Davis(7-13, 4.01) who has had a nice season so far, but in his last few starts he struggled a bit as his ERA rised up. His numbers against SF aren't good at 4-7, 4.46 ERA. He will oppose lefty Barry Zito(10-12, 3.94) who is great posting one of the best ERAs in the league during the last two months. With Zito in such a great form I even don't care about his average numbers against Arizona.
We also see San Francisco playing for something while the D'backs don't. And even if the Giants' chances are far from great they can still make the playoffs with a great run. This can be done best with a start against a team that has packed it in for the season as Arizona seemingly did. As this play is not very strong to me I will only put a unit on that one at 2.06 or +106. Good Luck.
DG
Today we see the Giants visiting Arizona.
Arizona sends Doug Davis(7-13, 4.01) who has had a nice season so far, but in his last few starts he struggled a bit as his ERA rised up. His numbers against SF aren't good at 4-7, 4.46 ERA. He will oppose lefty Barry Zito(10-12, 3.94) who is great posting one of the best ERAs in the league during the last two months. With Zito in such a great form I even don't care about his average numbers against Arizona.
We also see San Francisco playing for something while the D'backs don't. And even if the Giants' chances are far from great they can still make the playoffs with a great run. This can be done best with a start against a team that has packed it in for the season as Arizona seemingly did. As this play is not very strong to me I will only put a unit on that one at 2.06 or +106. Good Luck.
DG
9/20/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 16-22, +1.87
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
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