Record 27-40, -8.36 (1 pending)
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
12/05/2009
Free Pick: Arizona +7
Record: 27-40, -8.36
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
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