Record: 5-10, -4.27
Still angry about Toronto yesterday. Today we have a perfect scenario in Cleveland that lost 0-17 last week against Green Bay and should be highly motivated to turn things around today. They play against last year 0-16 Detroit. I don't care much about the lineups in preseason games as starters don't play very much. Matt Stafford gets the starting QB job for the Lions tonight, he should be motivated, too as he's battling for the starting job. But the Lions team is too bad as a whole. Last week I wanted to take them as they should have shown something after this cruel season. They did as they won by one but didn't cover the spread. So they have their win for now but didn't show major improvement.
As the Browns are the much more motivated team they should win this one easily and I put 4 units on the spread at -3.5 with odds of 1.90 or -111.
Second one will be on Washington that lost even bigger by 0-23 at Buffalo. They also have to prove something tonight and what better opponent could they have to prove their abilities as the reigning champs Steelers. The Steelers themselves won last week in a small rematch of last SuperBowl matchup against Arizona by 20-10. Time to relax a bit now for them and the Redskins should have no problems winning this one.
I'll give them a shot with 3 units at the -3.5 spread and odds of 1.98 or -102.
Last one will be Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Texas Rangers. Both teams fight for the wild card spot right now and the Rays won yesterdays series opener. Today they go with Matt Garza(7-8, 3.73) who did well over the season but had some suspect outings lately. His ERA is still solid but his WHIP decreased over the last few games. Also, his last start against the Rangers was really bad. Texas sends Tommy Hunter(6-2, 2.64) who also had two lesser starts lately but is still great for the season. His lone start against the Rays was on July 3rd and pitched great then.
So, with Tampa in better form and at home where they are 41-20 they should be the faves here, but surely not that high as Texas owns a good offense, too, and at least an equal pitcher. With odds of 2.63 or +163 I have to go with them by 2 units.
Good Luck
8/21/2009
Play on Toronto RL and Oakland
Record: 5-8, -0.27
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
8/20/2009
Play on Indianapolis ML
Record: 4-8, -1.80
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
8/17/2009
Play on Atlanta RL and Texas RL
record: 2-8, -10.82
Game yesterday postponed. Today we have two nice bets. First one will be on Atlanta that sends Tommy Hanson(7-2, 3.05) who did very well this season. In 12 starts he allowed more than 2 runs only four times and didn't reach the 6th inning three times at 5, 5.1 and 5.2 innings, so this is a solid performance for the rookie. Also in his last three he got better from game to game which doesn't give us hints that he could have any kind of problems right now.
The D'backs will go with Max Scherzer(7-6, 3.94) who has nice numbers over the whole season but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.18 and a WHIP of 1.69. He could be a bit out of form although his last outing against the Mets was a good one. This season he could hold the Braves scoreless in six innings in Atlanta but was crushed at home with 8 ERs in 3.2 innings.
Atlanta was 1-2 in the series against the Phillies which means they are 4.5 games behind them now, but they are still close to the Wild Card spot so they have to get back on track today. Prior to the Phillies series they were on a 7-1 run and now facing a much worse team than yesterday they should be able to do so. The D'backs played well last week posting some nice wins against the Dodgers and Mets but they didn't score too many runs and are still far away from playoff chances. They also come a long way from Phoenix to Atlanta for only a game postponed on May 17th to go on to Philadelphia tomorrow.
I don't believe Arizona will be competitive here so the Braves who need the win more are my choice on the run line at 2.37 or +137. I will play it with 2 units.
Second pick is on the Texas Rangers who host the Twins. On the mound we will see Tommy Hunter(5-2, 2.26) opposing Francisco Liriano(5-11, 5.39). I really like Liriano as a pitcher, but although he had a good game last week and a nice one a few weeks ago here in Texas he still isn't good over the season as he is too inconsistent and allows a bit too many walks. As said he was good in his last start but it was against a bad Royals team and today it will be much more difficult for him. Ranger Hunter had a bad year in 08 when he had 20 ERs in just 11 innings but this year he is great so far allowing more than 2 ERs only twice with 3 and 4. His WHIP of 1.13 tells the same story. He's a bit better on the road but doesn't matter as Rangers ballpark is not easy for pitchers.
We also see Texas in good form as they are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the Wild Card spot for the moment thanks to winning their last two against Boston. Minnesota on the other hand lost both home series against two of the three worst AL Teams Kansas City and Cleveland and now they have to go to one of the top AL Teams. Not a good sign for them. They also come a long way to Texas and while they played at 70 degrees F yesterday, today they have to play in up to 20 degrees warmer weather which isn't a good thing for them too as the Rangers played here yesterday and could rest waiting for them and are used to play with these temperatures.
All good signs to post a big win so I'll take them on the run line too at 2.57 or +157 with 4 units as this is an especially strong play for me.
Good Luck
Game yesterday postponed. Today we have two nice bets. First one will be on Atlanta that sends Tommy Hanson(7-2, 3.05) who did very well this season. In 12 starts he allowed more than 2 runs only four times and didn't reach the 6th inning three times at 5, 5.1 and 5.2 innings, so this is a solid performance for the rookie. Also in his last three he got better from game to game which doesn't give us hints that he could have any kind of problems right now.
The D'backs will go with Max Scherzer(7-6, 3.94) who has nice numbers over the whole season but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.18 and a WHIP of 1.69. He could be a bit out of form although his last outing against the Mets was a good one. This season he could hold the Braves scoreless in six innings in Atlanta but was crushed at home with 8 ERs in 3.2 innings.
Atlanta was 1-2 in the series against the Phillies which means they are 4.5 games behind them now, but they are still close to the Wild Card spot so they have to get back on track today. Prior to the Phillies series they were on a 7-1 run and now facing a much worse team than yesterday they should be able to do so. The D'backs played well last week posting some nice wins against the Dodgers and Mets but they didn't score too many runs and are still far away from playoff chances. They also come a long way from Phoenix to Atlanta for only a game postponed on May 17th to go on to Philadelphia tomorrow.
I don't believe Arizona will be competitive here so the Braves who need the win more are my choice on the run line at 2.37 or +137. I will play it with 2 units.
Second pick is on the Texas Rangers who host the Twins. On the mound we will see Tommy Hunter(5-2, 2.26) opposing Francisco Liriano(5-11, 5.39). I really like Liriano as a pitcher, but although he had a good game last week and a nice one a few weeks ago here in Texas he still isn't good over the season as he is too inconsistent and allows a bit too many walks. As said he was good in his last start but it was against a bad Royals team and today it will be much more difficult for him. Ranger Hunter had a bad year in 08 when he had 20 ERs in just 11 innings but this year he is great so far allowing more than 2 ERs only twice with 3 and 4. His WHIP of 1.13 tells the same story. He's a bit better on the road but doesn't matter as Rangers ballpark is not easy for pitchers.
We also see Texas in good form as they are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the Wild Card spot for the moment thanks to winning their last two against Boston. Minnesota on the other hand lost both home series against two of the three worst AL Teams Kansas City and Cleveland and now they have to go to one of the top AL Teams. Not a good sign for them. They also come a long way to Texas and while they played at 70 degrees F yesterday, today they have to play in up to 20 degrees warmer weather which isn't a good thing for them too as the Rangers played here yesterday and could rest waiting for them and are used to play with these temperatures.
All good signs to post a big win so I'll take them on the run line too at 2.57 or +157 with 4 units as this is an especially strong play for me.
Good Luck
8/16/2009
Play on Pittsburgh
Record: 2-8, -10.82
First pick today will be on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs won the first two games of the series and send Rich Harden(7-7, 4.30) today. He will have to mess with Ross Ohlendorf(10-8, 4.30). Both pitchers did well in their last few games. Both are also 1-0 in head to head situation and both prefer night games. We see Ohlendorf pitching a run better at home and Harden two runs better on the road. The Cubs bullpen seems to feel comfortable and the Pirates pen got a little rest yesterday when Zach Duke went more than seven innings. So the pitching matchup is pretty even.
The crazy odds come from the Pirates latest slump when they lost their last four with a combined 4-38 runs. But they were competitive when they got good pitching which they should get by Ohlendorf. Their cruel 18-43 road record is not going to last for the season. Look for them to get a bit better on the road and a bit worse at home, hopefully starting tonight.
So the Cubs are faves for sure but I'll put 2 units on these crazy 3.45 or +245 on the Pirates.
Good Luck
First pick today will be on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs won the first two games of the series and send Rich Harden(7-7, 4.30) today. He will have to mess with Ross Ohlendorf(10-8, 4.30). Both pitchers did well in their last few games. Both are also 1-0 in head to head situation and both prefer night games. We see Ohlendorf pitching a run better at home and Harden two runs better on the road. The Cubs bullpen seems to feel comfortable and the Pirates pen got a little rest yesterday when Zach Duke went more than seven innings. So the pitching matchup is pretty even.
The crazy odds come from the Pirates latest slump when they lost their last four with a combined 4-38 runs. But they were competitive when they got good pitching which they should get by Ohlendorf. Their cruel 18-43 road record is not going to last for the season. Look for them to get a bit better on the road and a bit worse at home, hopefully starting tonight.
So the Cubs are faves for sure but I'll put 2 units on these crazy 3.45 or +245 on the Pirates.
Good Luck
Abonnieren
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