Record: 23-34, -4.66
Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.
Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.
Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.
So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/09/2009
10/07/2009
Play on Minnesota
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Hi everybody,
this is a recommendation on a small play on the Minnesota Twins tonight. It's their first game of the series against the Yankees.
I know you might think I'm crazy and everyone jumps on the Yankee train, but let's face the stats first: The Yankees go with CC Sabathia(19-8, 3.37) who played a good seasonand he is also very good against the Twins at 13-8 and a 3.05 ERA. Most of that came from his time in Cleveland. If it had been all for the Yankees he would have gone 20-2 or so as he gets much more run support here in New York. Well, he is an ace and the superior ptcher against Twin Brian Duensing(5-2, 3.64) who played nice as a rookie, but has struggled in his last few outings and was put back into the bullpen in his last game. Now he starts again, and he never started against New York, but he had one relief outing where he allowed 4 ERs in 2.2 innings. Of course the Yankees like him as a lefty, especially here in New York.
So why play on Minnesota that used much of its bullpen yesterday while the Yankees are rested? That's it! Rested often means rusted. How often have you seen playoff teams letting the regular season roll out, maybe resting some key players and then having become rusty in their first few games in postseason. Maybe the Yankees have the same problem here. Their last few games were completely meaningless, and even if they don't want to lean back and rest, they do. Nobody wants to put too much effort into meaningless games. And today everyone speaks about the big favorite from New York. If you hear people talking on the streets or on TV, the Yanks have already won. Not the game, but the series. That doesn't help any team. And now we look at the Twins. They are the chanceless underdogs, they are already counted out by the media, the fans and experts, and by the oddsmakers which you can see from the ridiculous odds. If you look at the stats you see only New York. But believe me, that Detroit game yesterday geve them a push, they probably still feel the adrenalin inside them. And they are free from any pressure. That's a very important thing, many teams that achieved something they haven't achieved for a long time show that freeness from pressure.
I know this is a bit speculation and a pick mainly built on psychological aspects, but I will try this one even if the Twins could also been blown out today. I'll give 2 units on them at 4.30 or +330. Good Luck.
DG
Hi everybody,
this is a recommendation on a small play on the Minnesota Twins tonight. It's their first game of the series against the Yankees.
I know you might think I'm crazy and everyone jumps on the Yankee train, but let's face the stats first: The Yankees go with CC Sabathia(19-8, 3.37) who played a good seasonand he is also very good against the Twins at 13-8 and a 3.05 ERA. Most of that came from his time in Cleveland. If it had been all for the Yankees he would have gone 20-2 or so as he gets much more run support here in New York. Well, he is an ace and the superior ptcher against Twin Brian Duensing(5-2, 3.64) who played nice as a rookie, but has struggled in his last few outings and was put back into the bullpen in his last game. Now he starts again, and he never started against New York, but he had one relief outing where he allowed 4 ERs in 2.2 innings. Of course the Yankees like him as a lefty, especially here in New York.
So why play on Minnesota that used much of its bullpen yesterday while the Yankees are rested? That's it! Rested often means rusted. How often have you seen playoff teams letting the regular season roll out, maybe resting some key players and then having become rusty in their first few games in postseason. Maybe the Yankees have the same problem here. Their last few games were completely meaningless, and even if they don't want to lean back and rest, they do. Nobody wants to put too much effort into meaningless games. And today everyone speaks about the big favorite from New York. If you hear people talking on the streets or on TV, the Yanks have already won. Not the game, but the series. That doesn't help any team. And now we look at the Twins. They are the chanceless underdogs, they are already counted out by the media, the fans and experts, and by the oddsmakers which you can see from the ridiculous odds. If you look at the stats you see only New York. But believe me, that Detroit game yesterday geve them a push, they probably still feel the adrenalin inside them. And they are free from any pressure. That's a very important thing, many teams that achieved something they haven't achieved for a long time show that freeness from pressure.
I know this is a bit speculation and a pick mainly built on psychological aspects, but I will try this one even if the Twins could also been blown out today. I'll give 2 units on them at 4.30 or +330. Good Luck.
DG
10/06/2009
Intermission
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
10/04/2009
Play on Kansas City +9 and ML
Record: 23-31, -0.68
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
Abonnieren
Posts (Atom)