Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks ML

Record: 29-44, -13.50

After a long break I am back posting the first wild card game.

I'll back the Seahawks here on the money line. As you know they are the first team ever to get to the play offs despite posting a losing record. They haven't done anything special this year while the Saints did a good job as the reigning champs. I cannot give you any convincing stats that will point to Seattle as the winning team but it is always dangerous to play against such teams. It is a pick based on psychological opportunities as I call them. I remember a few years ago when I cashed with the Giants when they went to the Super Bowl. They were the dogs in each post season contest but developed a winner mentality.

The same effect could play a part today as nobody believes in Seattle. They are a play off team that gets 10 points at home! So if they lose it is no desaster, they've got nothing to lose. In contrary, they have the chance to kick out the reigning champs. I'm sure they will fight for their lives and maybe the Saints underestimate the challenge they will be facing. The weather will be cold and possibly wet which won't be negative for Seattle although I believe NO will be ready for that.

To sum it up, I think odds are way too high on Seattle and often we found the case that defending champs were kicked out because everyone puts in everything against them. Maybe the Saints are cool enough to beat them, but if they do so it will be a blowout so the spread doesn't look attractive to me, while a shot with a unit on the Seahawks at 5.23 or +423 is worth tonight.

Stay tuned as there may be a second pick tonight. Tomorrow it's too difficult to call a winner, but the Jets/Colts matchup might be a good opportunity.