Record: 29-42, -8.50
Second pick tonight will be on the Seahawks hosting Tampa Bay.
I played Seattle several times this season, especially at home. They are at 5-8 for the season, but at home they have a 4-2 record. They lost to Arizona and Chicago and won St Louis, Jacksonville, Detroit and San Francisco. They suffer from the injury of Nate Burleson, of course, but they still have some other nice receivers behind Houshmandzadeh. Hasselbeck had a good season, too, although he was injured again.
Tampa is really bad. They have a bad offense as neither Freeman nor Johnson can do anything for the passing game both slightly over .50 in completions throwing twice as much picks as TDs. They are 6th in offensive rushing, but Cadillac William's average of 3.8 yards per rush is nothing special. It's just beacause they run more often than other teams. They are defensively 3rd against the run, but unfortunately Seattle is mainly a passing team, and their passing defense is 23rd. Their only chance would be heavy rain and strong wind in Qwest Field tonight. That won't happen, there will probably be slight rain, but that shouldn't be enough to help their defense.
I was surprised that the spread went down here, so I'll take it with 3 units at 2.04. Good Luck.
DG
12/20/2009
Free Pick: Kansas City -2.5
Record: 29-42, -8.50
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/06/2009
Free Pick: Chicago -9.5
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Arizona ML
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/05/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee ML
Record 27-40, -8.36 (1 pending)
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Free Pick: Arizona +7
Record: 27-40, -8.36
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
11/28/2009
Free Pick: Florida State +25
Record: 27-39, -5.36
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
11/15/2009
Free Picks: StLouis +14 and Detroit +17
Record: 26-39, -7.26
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
11/07/2009
Free Pick: PSU -5
Record: 26-38, -3.26
Was on vacation, so I couldn't give free picks last 2 weeks. Today I'm back with a nice play on Penn State hosting the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions were the top favorite in the Big Ten along with Ohio State. The only lost to surprisingly good Iowa. Nevertheless I see a big advantage for them here. They average more than 30 PPG, but their Defense is even better allowing less than 10 PPG. They have returning power with top QB Daryl Clark who completed 63.1% of his passes for 2158 yards and 18 TDs against 7 picks. This Offense is great as along with a great passer they also have a great RB in Evan Royster who has run for 859 yards in 8 games so far with 5 TDs and an average gain of almost 6 yards. This is a very tough offense to stop.
Of course the Buckeyes have a good defense, too, allowing about 12PPG, but three times they held opponents to zero which were cupcakes Toledo, New Mexico State and Illinois. So this stat is a bit misleading. Their Offense averages more than 30 PPG as well, but it is a bit one dimensional behind Terelle Pryor who is definitely a great QB but everything is about him. His completion% is average at 54.6 along with 1543 yards and 13 TDs vs 9 INTs. He's also their best runner with 554 yards averaging 5.0 per run. Here he gets a little help from Brandon Saine. In all, they lack help for Pryor as they lost some starters from last year.
So while PSU plays the better defense, the more balanced offense and at home this spread of -5 looks like a present which I will take with 4 units at 1.971 or -103. Good Luck.
DG
Was on vacation, so I couldn't give free picks last 2 weeks. Today I'm back with a nice play on Penn State hosting the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions were the top favorite in the Big Ten along with Ohio State. The only lost to surprisingly good Iowa. Nevertheless I see a big advantage for them here. They average more than 30 PPG, but their Defense is even better allowing less than 10 PPG. They have returning power with top QB Daryl Clark who completed 63.1% of his passes for 2158 yards and 18 TDs against 7 picks. This Offense is great as along with a great passer they also have a great RB in Evan Royster who has run for 859 yards in 8 games so far with 5 TDs and an average gain of almost 6 yards. This is a very tough offense to stop.
Of course the Buckeyes have a good defense, too, allowing about 12PPG, but three times they held opponents to zero which were cupcakes Toledo, New Mexico State and Illinois. So this stat is a bit misleading. Their Offense averages more than 30 PPG as well, but it is a bit one dimensional behind Terelle Pryor who is definitely a great QB but everything is about him. His completion% is average at 54.6 along with 1543 yards and 13 TDs vs 9 INTs. He's also their best runner with 554 yards averaging 5.0 per run. Here he gets a little help from Brandon Saine. In all, they lack help for Pryor as they lost some starters from last year.
So while PSU plays the better defense, the more balanced offense and at home this spread of -5 looks like a present which I will take with 4 units at 1.971 or -103. Good Luck.
DG
10/25/2009
Free Pick: Tampa Bay +14.5
Record: 26-37, -1.26
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/24/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee +14
Record: 25-37, -5.76
Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.
The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.
Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.
If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.
One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!
Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.
DG
Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.
The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.
Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.
If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.
One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!
Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.
DG
10/19/2009
Free Pick: LA Dodgers
Record: 25-36, -2.76
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/18/2009
Free Pick: Philadelphia-13.5
Record: 25-35, -0.76
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/17/2009
Free Pick: Illinois-3
Record: 25-34, +1.24
Hi there, today's free pick will be on the Fighting Illini playing against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Illinois faced high expectations before the season returning a lot of talent around QB Juice Williams. They couldn't hold on to it, and now stand at 1-4. They are also 0-3 in the Big10 but look at their opponents: Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, by far the three best Big10 teams from last year.
Today they face a much lesser opponent in Indiana. The Hoosiers started 3-0 in an easy non conference schedule, but since then they have gone 0-3 and are 0-2 in the Big10. They lost against good Ohio State and below average Michigan. Last week the got crushed by Virginia 7-47.
So as we know Illinois is much better than where they stand now, Indiana first has to show it has improved from last year when they had a desaster season. I will go with the experienced crew that has really been tested so far. I will play the spread of -3 at 1.96 or -104 with 2 units. Good Luck
DG
Hi there, today's free pick will be on the Fighting Illini playing against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Illinois faced high expectations before the season returning a lot of talent around QB Juice Williams. They couldn't hold on to it, and now stand at 1-4. They are also 0-3 in the Big10 but look at their opponents: Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, by far the three best Big10 teams from last year.
Today they face a much lesser opponent in Indiana. The Hoosiers started 3-0 in an easy non conference schedule, but since then they have gone 0-3 and are 0-2 in the Big10. They lost against good Ohio State and below average Michigan. Last week the got crushed by Virginia 7-47.
So as we know Illinois is much better than where they stand now, Indiana first has to show it has improved from last year when they had a desaster season. I will go with the experienced crew that has really been tested so far. I will play the spread of -3 at 1.96 or -104 with 2 units. Good Luck
DG
10/11/2009
Free Pick: Seattle-1
Record: 24-34, -0.86
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/09/2009
Free Pick: Miami(Ohio) +18.5
Record: 23-34, -4.66
Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.
Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.
Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.
So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.
Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.
Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.
So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/07/2009
Play on Minnesota
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Hi everybody,
this is a recommendation on a small play on the Minnesota Twins tonight. It's their first game of the series against the Yankees.
I know you might think I'm crazy and everyone jumps on the Yankee train, but let's face the stats first: The Yankees go with CC Sabathia(19-8, 3.37) who played a good seasonand he is also very good against the Twins at 13-8 and a 3.05 ERA. Most of that came from his time in Cleveland. If it had been all for the Yankees he would have gone 20-2 or so as he gets much more run support here in New York. Well, he is an ace and the superior ptcher against Twin Brian Duensing(5-2, 3.64) who played nice as a rookie, but has struggled in his last few outings and was put back into the bullpen in his last game. Now he starts again, and he never started against New York, but he had one relief outing where he allowed 4 ERs in 2.2 innings. Of course the Yankees like him as a lefty, especially here in New York.
So why play on Minnesota that used much of its bullpen yesterday while the Yankees are rested? That's it! Rested often means rusted. How often have you seen playoff teams letting the regular season roll out, maybe resting some key players and then having become rusty in their first few games in postseason. Maybe the Yankees have the same problem here. Their last few games were completely meaningless, and even if they don't want to lean back and rest, they do. Nobody wants to put too much effort into meaningless games. And today everyone speaks about the big favorite from New York. If you hear people talking on the streets or on TV, the Yanks have already won. Not the game, but the series. That doesn't help any team. And now we look at the Twins. They are the chanceless underdogs, they are already counted out by the media, the fans and experts, and by the oddsmakers which you can see from the ridiculous odds. If you look at the stats you see only New York. But believe me, that Detroit game yesterday geve them a push, they probably still feel the adrenalin inside them. And they are free from any pressure. That's a very important thing, many teams that achieved something they haven't achieved for a long time show that freeness from pressure.
I know this is a bit speculation and a pick mainly built on psychological aspects, but I will try this one even if the Twins could also been blown out today. I'll give 2 units on them at 4.30 or +330. Good Luck.
DG
Hi everybody,
this is a recommendation on a small play on the Minnesota Twins tonight. It's their first game of the series against the Yankees.
I know you might think I'm crazy and everyone jumps on the Yankee train, but let's face the stats first: The Yankees go with CC Sabathia(19-8, 3.37) who played a good seasonand he is also very good against the Twins at 13-8 and a 3.05 ERA. Most of that came from his time in Cleveland. If it had been all for the Yankees he would have gone 20-2 or so as he gets much more run support here in New York. Well, he is an ace and the superior ptcher against Twin Brian Duensing(5-2, 3.64) who played nice as a rookie, but has struggled in his last few outings and was put back into the bullpen in his last game. Now he starts again, and he never started against New York, but he had one relief outing where he allowed 4 ERs in 2.2 innings. Of course the Yankees like him as a lefty, especially here in New York.
So why play on Minnesota that used much of its bullpen yesterday while the Yankees are rested? That's it! Rested often means rusted. How often have you seen playoff teams letting the regular season roll out, maybe resting some key players and then having become rusty in their first few games in postseason. Maybe the Yankees have the same problem here. Their last few games were completely meaningless, and even if they don't want to lean back and rest, they do. Nobody wants to put too much effort into meaningless games. And today everyone speaks about the big favorite from New York. If you hear people talking on the streets or on TV, the Yanks have already won. Not the game, but the series. That doesn't help any team. And now we look at the Twins. They are the chanceless underdogs, they are already counted out by the media, the fans and experts, and by the oddsmakers which you can see from the ridiculous odds. If you look at the stats you see only New York. But believe me, that Detroit game yesterday geve them a push, they probably still feel the adrenalin inside them. And they are free from any pressure. That's a very important thing, many teams that achieved something they haven't achieved for a long time show that freeness from pressure.
I know this is a bit speculation and a pick mainly built on psychological aspects, but I will try this one even if the Twins could also been blown out today. I'll give 2 units on them at 4.30 or +330. Good Luck.
DG
10/06/2009
Intermission
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
10/04/2009
Play on Kansas City +9 and ML
Record: 23-31, -0.68
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
10/03/2009
Play on Northwestern ML
Record: 22-31, -6.14
Today I will play on the Northwestern Wildcats who visit the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue runs the ball well behind RB Bolden, but the passing game was too inconsitent so far. QB Joey Elliot only completed 60.1 % of his passes with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Their Defense is not very competitive, especially against the run.
Northwestern is always tough to beat and they were nice over the last seasons. QB Mike Kafka showed that he can throw this year with 72.2 % completions, 5 TDs vs 3 INTs and over 1000 yards passing. He is also a great runner but hasn't showed it so far this season. Today he can against one of the weaker run defenses of Purdue. They could miss top RB Simmons again here, so Kafka should run today. But they still have some other runners who can carry the ball over the field.
Expect a nice game from Northwestern who has a decent shot at a win here, I will take them on the Money Line at 3.73 or +273 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Northwestern Wildcats who visit the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue runs the ball well behind RB Bolden, but the passing game was too inconsitent so far. QB Joey Elliot only completed 60.1 % of his passes with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Their Defense is not very competitive, especially against the run.
Northwestern is always tough to beat and they were nice over the last seasons. QB Mike Kafka showed that he can throw this year with 72.2 % completions, 5 TDs vs 3 INTs and over 1000 yards passing. He is also a great runner but hasn't showed it so far this season. Today he can against one of the weaker run defenses of Purdue. They could miss top RB Simmons again here, so Kafka should run today. But they still have some other runners who can carry the ball over the field.
Expect a nice game from Northwestern who has a decent shot at a win here, I will take them on the Money Line at 3.73 or +273 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/02/2009
Play on Seattle
Record: 22-29, -1.14
Second pick will be on Seattle who will play against Texas.
Seattle goes with Ian Snell(7-10, 4.86) who came over from Pittsburgh and went 5-2, 4.17 ERA for Seattle since then although he changed to the better AL. He doesn't go too many innings but those 5 or six he usually goes are mostly solid, with 2 or 3 exceptions (for Seattle). His main problem remains that he walks too many, but as long as he performs like he did lately I'm still fine with it. He is also 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA against Texas. The Rangers send Brandon McCarthy(7-4, 4.47) who played well over the season but in his last few starts he was very inconsistent and Texas lost all of his last 3 starts. He is surprisingly better at home(hitting ballpark) as he went 3-3, 5.79 on the road. Against Seattle he is also bad at 1-2, 6.46.
Seattle played well lately, they swept Oakland this week and they are a good home team with a 46-32 record. Texas blew its postseason chances but they had enormous problems with scoring during September as two of their best hitters are injured. Yesterday they showed a sign of life beating the first place Angels but I don't think they have any motivation here in Seattle.
So I will put 2 units on Seattle at 1.92 or -108. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick will be on Seattle who will play against Texas.
Seattle goes with Ian Snell(7-10, 4.86) who came over from Pittsburgh and went 5-2, 4.17 ERA for Seattle since then although he changed to the better AL. He doesn't go too many innings but those 5 or six he usually goes are mostly solid, with 2 or 3 exceptions (for Seattle). His main problem remains that he walks too many, but as long as he performs like he did lately I'm still fine with it. He is also 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA against Texas. The Rangers send Brandon McCarthy(7-4, 4.47) who played well over the season but in his last few starts he was very inconsistent and Texas lost all of his last 3 starts. He is surprisingly better at home(hitting ballpark) as he went 3-3, 5.79 on the road. Against Seattle he is also bad at 1-2, 6.46.
Seattle played well lately, they swept Oakland this week and they are a good home team with a 46-32 record. Texas blew its postseason chances but they had enormous problems with scoring during September as two of their best hitters are injured. Yesterday they showed a sign of life beating the first place Angels but I don't think they have any motivation here in Seattle.
So I will put 2 units on Seattle at 1.92 or -108. Good Luck.
DG
Play on San Diego
Record: 22-29, -1.14
First pick for tonight will be on San Diego hosting the San Francisco Giants. Probably there will be a second pick tonight.
San Diego sends Kevin Correia(12-10, 3.89) who will play against his former teammates. He has ahd a nice season so far, especially in his last few starts. In September he was able to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 3.89 and his last two games were great going 7 scoreless innings last week and posting a 6-hitter in his last outing. He also plays here in the best pitcher park against one of the lesser hitting teams of the Giants. Against them he is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He will be opposed to Barry Zito(10-13, 4.10) who played a nice season but his form goes the other way than Correia's as he's risen his ERA to over 4 again. His last two games show that decline as he went 4.1 and 4 innings allowing 4 and 3 ERs. He is also below average against San Diego at 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA.
One of the main reasons for the pick is San Diego finishing strong. They went 17-9 during September behind good pitching but they also hit well mostly. Here in PETCO Park they even have a winning record at 41-37. San Francisco on the other hand blew their postseason chances in September going 13-14. They are the best home team in the NL at 52-29, but on the road they are nothing special. The Padres also had a day of rest yesterday.
Looks like good odds for San Diego at 1.80 or -125 so I will put 3 units on them. Good Luck.
DG
First pick for tonight will be on San Diego hosting the San Francisco Giants. Probably there will be a second pick tonight.
San Diego sends Kevin Correia(12-10, 3.89) who will play against his former teammates. He has ahd a nice season so far, especially in his last few starts. In September he was able to drop his ERA from 4.50 to 3.89 and his last two games were great going 7 scoreless innings last week and posting a 6-hitter in his last outing. He also plays here in the best pitcher park against one of the lesser hitting teams of the Giants. Against them he is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He will be opposed to Barry Zito(10-13, 4.10) who played a nice season but his form goes the other way than Correia's as he's risen his ERA to over 4 again. His last two games show that decline as he went 4.1 and 4 innings allowing 4 and 3 ERs. He is also below average against San Diego at 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA.
One of the main reasons for the pick is San Diego finishing strong. They went 17-9 during September behind good pitching but they also hit well mostly. Here in PETCO Park they even have a winning record at 41-37. San Francisco on the other hand blew their postseason chances in September going 13-14. They are the best home team in the NL at 52-29, but on the road they are nothing special. The Padres also had a day of rest yesterday.
Looks like good odds for San Diego at 1.80 or -125 so I will put 3 units on them. Good Luck.
DG
10/01/2009
Play on Cle/Bos over 9.5
Record: 22-28, +0.86
Today's play will be on the over between the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians. The line is at 9.5 at the moment.
The Red Sox go with Jon Lester(14-8, 3.52) who played another great season. He has won a lot of games lately, but his form seems to go downwards now. In his last two games he allowed 3 homers and first he went six innings with 3 ERs on 10 hits, last weekend he went only 2.1 innings with 5 ERs on 8 hits and 3 walks. He is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland but his ERA of 4.76 isn't good at all. Cleveland sends rookie Carlos Carrasco(0-3, 9.00) who lost 3 of his 4 starts while his team lost all four. He never allowed less than 4 ERs and only once went more than 5 innings. Not a guy you should count on.
The Indians have come back lately going 4-2 in their last 6 and they averaged 4.8 runs during their last 5 games although they were scoreless in the second game yesterday. I think they should score some runs as Boston's bullpen has had a lot of work lately. Boston with its great 52-25 home record should score tonight, too. They need their offense going shortly before playoffs against the Angels start. They lost 6 straight being swept by the Yankees and here at home against Toronto. They should also show their fans something as they lost 0-12 yesterday. They should be able to do so as they played a much better pitcher in Halladay yesterday.
I expect a high scoring affair putting 2 units on the over 9.5 at 2.00 or +100. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on the over between the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians. The line is at 9.5 at the moment.
The Red Sox go with Jon Lester(14-8, 3.52) who played another great season. He has won a lot of games lately, but his form seems to go downwards now. In his last two games he allowed 3 homers and first he went six innings with 3 ERs on 10 hits, last weekend he went only 2.1 innings with 5 ERs on 8 hits and 3 walks. He is 2-0 in 5 starts against Cleveland but his ERA of 4.76 isn't good at all. Cleveland sends rookie Carlos Carrasco(0-3, 9.00) who lost 3 of his 4 starts while his team lost all four. He never allowed less than 4 ERs and only once went more than 5 innings. Not a guy you should count on.
The Indians have come back lately going 4-2 in their last 6 and they averaged 4.8 runs during their last 5 games although they were scoreless in the second game yesterday. I think they should score some runs as Boston's bullpen has had a lot of work lately. Boston with its great 52-25 home record should score tonight, too. They need their offense going shortly before playoffs against the Angels start. They lost 6 straight being swept by the Yankees and here at home against Toronto. They should also show their fans something as they lost 0-12 yesterday. They should be able to do so as they played a much better pitcher in Halladay yesterday.
I expect a high scoring affair putting 2 units on the over 9.5 at 2.00 or +100. Good Luck.
DG
9/30/2009
Play on Cleveland
Record: 21-28, -0.02
Today I will play the first game between the Indians and the White Sox.
We see Fausto Carmona(4-12, 6.62) for Cleveland who had a terrible season and was up and down all year long. His last start against Baltimore was one of his better performances picking up a rare win. Against Chicago he is below average at 3-3 and a 5.05 ERA. The good thing is he usually pitches some innings but even if he doesn't the Indians bullpen should be rested as they didn't play yesterday and on Monday Laffey went more than 7 innings. The White Sox send Carlos Torres(1-1, 5.91) and the rookie has been better from the bullpen so far. He had a good start at the Cubs but the others were average to really bad. Today he gets another chance to start against the team he suffered 4 ERs in 3.1 innings this year. So the bonus of never being seen by the Indians doesn't work here. He averaged only 4.1 innings in his starts.
The Indians lost 15 of 16 during September but have come back winning 3 of 4 recently. They lost 6-1 on Monday so the break yesterday should be fine for them. The White Sox have had a bad stretch as well but we first have to wait if it is over since they won just that Monday game. The Indians are also slightly better at home than Chicago on the road, so at least here they should be competitive. I will put a unit on the Indians at 1.88 or -112. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play the first game between the Indians and the White Sox.
We see Fausto Carmona(4-12, 6.62) for Cleveland who had a terrible season and was up and down all year long. His last start against Baltimore was one of his better performances picking up a rare win. Against Chicago he is below average at 3-3 and a 5.05 ERA. The good thing is he usually pitches some innings but even if he doesn't the Indians bullpen should be rested as they didn't play yesterday and on Monday Laffey went more than 7 innings. The White Sox send Carlos Torres(1-1, 5.91) and the rookie has been better from the bullpen so far. He had a good start at the Cubs but the others were average to really bad. Today he gets another chance to start against the team he suffered 4 ERs in 3.1 innings this year. So the bonus of never being seen by the Indians doesn't work here. He averaged only 4.1 innings in his starts.
The Indians lost 15 of 16 during September but have come back winning 3 of 4 recently. They lost 6-1 on Monday so the break yesterday should be fine for them. The White Sox have had a bad stretch as well but we first have to wait if it is over since they won just that Monday game. The Indians are also slightly better at home than Chicago on the road, so at least here they should be competitive. I will put a unit on the Indians at 1.88 or -112. Good Luck.
DG
9/29/2009
Play on Boston RL
Record: 21-27, +1.98
Not much time today. In short: I like the Red Sox tonight who can seal their wild card spot with a win. They should do so winning easily with Clay Buchholz(7-3, 3.21) on the mound. He plays great ball right now winning 6 of his last 8 while his team won all of those 8 games. He is also 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Toronto. Ricky Romero(12-9, 4.28) who starts for the Jays started great but in his last ten Toronto lost 8 and only once he allowed less than 3 ERs rising his ERA from 3.66 to 4.28 during that span. He is also 0-3 in four starts against Boston with a 8.83 ERA.
No question for me that Boston will win this one big to celebrate the playoff spot. For sure they don't want to let the champagne become bad after they had to keep it in the fridge yesterday. A play on Boston on the run line is the choice at 1.89 or -111 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Not much time today. In short: I like the Red Sox tonight who can seal their wild card spot with a win. They should do so winning easily with Clay Buchholz(7-3, 3.21) on the mound. He plays great ball right now winning 6 of his last 8 while his team won all of those 8 games. He is also 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against Toronto. Ricky Romero(12-9, 4.28) who starts for the Jays started great but in his last ten Toronto lost 8 and only once he allowed less than 3 ERs rising his ERA from 3.66 to 4.28 during that span. He is also 0-3 in four starts against Boston with a 8.83 ERA.
No question for me that Boston will win this one big to celebrate the playoff spot. For sure they don't want to let the champagne become bad after they had to keep it in the fridge yesterday. A play on Boston on the run line is the choice at 1.89 or -111 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/28/2009
Play on Toronto
Record: 20-27, -0.49
Today I will play Toronto visiting Boston with a small play.
Of course the pitching matchup goes to Boston who give the ball to Josh Beckett(16-6, 3.78) against Scott Richmond(7-10, 5.32) who will start for Toronto. Richmond played very bad over his last few starts but he showed a little improvement in his last outing getting the win in a 7-3 win over Baltimore when he allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. Hopefully this turns his performance around and he will be better tonight. Beckett's ERA rised from 3.10 to 3.78 in his last 8 games. He's also only 3-2 in his last 10 with his team going 5-5 in those games.His last start looked good with 2 ERs in 6 innings against Kansas City, but don't forget he allowed 12 hits and a walk, so this 2 ERs seem very lucky. Both pitchers are bad against tonight's opponent. Richmond is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but this was in only 2 starts while Beckett is 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in 12 starts.
More important is the team performance as Boston was swept in New York over the weekend while Toront won 6 of its last 7. It seems as Toronto still wants to collect some more wins while the Sox could be frustrated after the series against their longtime rivals. Boston will get the wild card so there is no need for them to play on a high level in their remaining games.
Nevertheless the Red Sox are the faves here for sure but with odds of 3.47 or +247 you have to give it a shot with a unit. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play Toronto visiting Boston with a small play.
Of course the pitching matchup goes to Boston who give the ball to Josh Beckett(16-6, 3.78) against Scott Richmond(7-10, 5.32) who will start for Toronto. Richmond played very bad over his last few starts but he showed a little improvement in his last outing getting the win in a 7-3 win over Baltimore when he allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. Hopefully this turns his performance around and he will be better tonight. Beckett's ERA rised from 3.10 to 3.78 in his last 8 games. He's also only 3-2 in his last 10 with his team going 5-5 in those games.His last start looked good with 2 ERs in 6 innings against Kansas City, but don't forget he allowed 12 hits and a walk, so this 2 ERs seem very lucky. Both pitchers are bad against tonight's opponent. Richmond is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but this was in only 2 starts while Beckett is 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA in 12 starts.
More important is the team performance as Boston was swept in New York over the weekend while Toront won 6 of its last 7. It seems as Toronto still wants to collect some more wins while the Sox could be frustrated after the series against their longtime rivals. Boston will get the wild card so there is no need for them to play on a high level in their remaining games.
Nevertheless the Red Sox are the faves here for sure but with odds of 3.47 or +247 you have to give it a shot with a unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/27/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 20-26, +1.51
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears. I played on Seattle last week and I will do so again today. I'm sure they wouldn't have lost if Hasselbeck stayed healthy.
For this pick you can look at last weeks post in terms of Seattle. I think they are very good and even if Hasselbeck doesn't play, backup Seneca Wallace had a week to prepare with the team. Additionally, we see Seattle playing at home where they have been great over the last few years, much better than on the road.
If wee look at Chicago, we see them beating Pittsburgh last week. Look, most teams peak if they play the Champions and that was what Chicago did, especially on defense. We also know that usually teams cannot show peak performances two weeks in a row. They rather get flat. That counts especially for Chicago today as they additionally have a long road trip behind them.
Everything points to a Seahawks win. I will play them at 2.26 or +126 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/26/2009
Play on Troy ML
Record: 19-26, +0.31
Today's play will be on Troy on the money line. Troy is the much better team for sure. Arkansas State won its first game by 61-0 against bad Missouri Valley and were blown out themselves by Nebraska. They could contend for the Sun Belt title, but they have to win this game. This won't be easy, of course, as Troy won the last three titles. They had to replace some starters, especially on Defense, but they did a good job recruiting very good players as they always do. This defense should be very tough again, especially against the run. The running game is Arkansas State's best piece, but I don't think they can compete with the Troyan's D. Troy lost its first game which was bad for them. In week two they were blown out but expected nothing else against the National Champs Florida. Last week then they got their game going behind QB Levi Brown who was a major upgrade to the team. He passed for more than 400 yards. With the Conference opener ahead they will bring in their peak performance. They beat ASU the last two years by a combined score of 62-9.
No question Troy should win this one even if ASU had an extra week to prepare. I'll play them at 2.20 or +120 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on Troy on the money line. Troy is the much better team for sure. Arkansas State won its first game by 61-0 against bad Missouri Valley and were blown out themselves by Nebraska. They could contend for the Sun Belt title, but they have to win this game. This won't be easy, of course, as Troy won the last three titles. They had to replace some starters, especially on Defense, but they did a good job recruiting very good players as they always do. This defense should be very tough again, especially against the run. The running game is Arkansas State's best piece, but I don't think they can compete with the Troyan's D. Troy lost its first game which was bad for them. In week two they were blown out but expected nothing else against the National Champs Florida. Last week then they got their game going behind QB Levi Brown who was a major upgrade to the team. He passed for more than 400 yards. With the Conference opener ahead they will bring in their peak performance. They beat ASU the last two years by a combined score of 62-9.
No question Troy should win this one even if ASU had an extra week to prepare. I'll play them at 2.20 or +120 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/25/2009
Play on Detroit
Record: 18-25, -1.13
Second pick for tonight will be on the Detroit Tigers playing in Chicago at the White Sox.
We see Detroit with good chances for a playoff spot and the division title as they play in the worst division in the AL. The are hunted by Minnesota who play a series in Kansas City this weekend and probaly take two or three wins there. So Detroit has to show something here in Chicago. They had a 3-9 stretch but are back now with 4 wins in a row. Their offense scored well, too, in those games. The White Sox went the other direction posting an 8-4 record at the beginning of September but went 1-7 since then losing their last 4.
Last White Sox' win was on Saturday when they sent Jake Peavy(7-6, 4.05) who will start today. He will be matched up against Eddie Bonine(0-0, 5.96) who mostly came from the bullpen this year and only has had two starts so far. One of those starts was against Chicago when he allowed 3 ERs over six innings. The other start was ok, too. I don't expect a great game by him, but he should be decent. I don't expect a good game by Peavy either as he has been injured for a long time and played only one game since then. This Saturday start was a win for him, but he went only 5 innings allowing 3 ERs against a very bad Kansas City team. He said he is not at 100% and that's what you could see on Saturday. Today he will face a much better offense than the Royals'. He also came from San Diego where he pitched in the best pitcher park AND in the worse NL. Now he plays in the superior AL and hasn't got the bonus of a great pitcher park.
Looks to me like the better hitting team should win here which is the Tigers. I thought about playing the over, but I'm not successful in totals, so I'll take Detroit at nice dog odds of 2.59 or +159 with 3 units as well. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick for tonight will be on the Detroit Tigers playing in Chicago at the White Sox.
We see Detroit with good chances for a playoff spot and the division title as they play in the worst division in the AL. The are hunted by Minnesota who play a series in Kansas City this weekend and probaly take two or three wins there. So Detroit has to show something here in Chicago. They had a 3-9 stretch but are back now with 4 wins in a row. Their offense scored well, too, in those games. The White Sox went the other direction posting an 8-4 record at the beginning of September but went 1-7 since then losing their last 4.
Last White Sox' win was on Saturday when they sent Jake Peavy(7-6, 4.05) who will start today. He will be matched up against Eddie Bonine(0-0, 5.96) who mostly came from the bullpen this year and only has had two starts so far. One of those starts was against Chicago when he allowed 3 ERs over six innings. The other start was ok, too. I don't expect a great game by him, but he should be decent. I don't expect a good game by Peavy either as he has been injured for a long time and played only one game since then. This Saturday start was a win for him, but he went only 5 innings allowing 3 ERs against a very bad Kansas City team. He said he is not at 100% and that's what you could see on Saturday. Today he will face a much better offense than the Royals'. He also came from San Diego where he pitched in the best pitcher park AND in the worse NL. Now he plays in the superior AL and hasn't got the bonus of a great pitcher park.
Looks to me like the better hitting team should win here which is the Tigers. I thought about playing the over, but I'm not successful in totals, so I'll take Detroit at nice dog odds of 2.59 or +159 with 3 units as well. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Chicago Cubs
Record: 18-25, -1.13
Today's first play( a second one should follow) will be on the Chicago Cubs who play their second game in San Francisco tonight.
The Cubs go with Carlos Zambrano(8-6, 3.91) opposing Tim Lincecum(14-6, 2.47). Zambrano has played six games now since a minor injury. The first two were bad but since then he has recovered and pitched well although he struggled a bit against Milwaukee last week. He still walks way too many batters as he had 3 or 4 walks in each of his last ten starts with one exception. However his ERA is great with so many walks. His career numbers against SF are good as well at 4-1 and a 3.26 ERA. Additionally, we see his ERA almost 2 runs better on the road than at home. He also has to play for something because the Cubs probably trade him away so he surely wants to show the league his abilities. Lincecum is a Cy Young canditate but probably won't win it because he's got only 14 wins. If he wins his 2, maybe 3 remaining games, he really has a shot on it, although I believe it will go to Cardinal Chris Carpenter. Nevertheless, he has been great all over the year, and his home numbers are better than on the road, and his career numbers against Chicago are very good, too at 3-1, 2.55 ERA. However, his ERA went up a bit over his last few starts and his team went only 4-4 in his last 8. 2 or 3 times he pitched bad, but mostly it is because of lack of run support.
One big point here is the Cubs team as I think. They've played very well of late to at least finish the season with a nice winning record. The Giants go the other direction losing too many games of late, although they had good chances to advance to postseason, but for now it seems very improbable. Maybe they are also a bit frustrated because of that which gives us very nice value on the odds for the Cubs tonight.
So I will play the Cubs as dogs at 2.48 or +148 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's first play( a second one should follow) will be on the Chicago Cubs who play their second game in San Francisco tonight.
The Cubs go with Carlos Zambrano(8-6, 3.91) opposing Tim Lincecum(14-6, 2.47). Zambrano has played six games now since a minor injury. The first two were bad but since then he has recovered and pitched well although he struggled a bit against Milwaukee last week. He still walks way too many batters as he had 3 or 4 walks in each of his last ten starts with one exception. However his ERA is great with so many walks. His career numbers against SF are good as well at 4-1 and a 3.26 ERA. Additionally, we see his ERA almost 2 runs better on the road than at home. He also has to play for something because the Cubs probably trade him away so he surely wants to show the league his abilities. Lincecum is a Cy Young canditate but probably won't win it because he's got only 14 wins. If he wins his 2, maybe 3 remaining games, he really has a shot on it, although I believe it will go to Cardinal Chris Carpenter. Nevertheless, he has been great all over the year, and his home numbers are better than on the road, and his career numbers against Chicago are very good, too at 3-1, 2.55 ERA. However, his ERA went up a bit over his last few starts and his team went only 4-4 in his last 8. 2 or 3 times he pitched bad, but mostly it is because of lack of run support.
One big point here is the Cubs team as I think. They've played very well of late to at least finish the season with a nice winning record. The Giants go the other direction losing too many games of late, although they had good chances to advance to postseason, but for now it seems very improbable. Maybe they are also a bit frustrated because of that which gives us very nice value on the odds for the Cubs tonight.
So I will play the Cubs as dogs at 2.48 or +148 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/23/2009
Play on St Louis
Record: 18-24, +0.87
Today's play will be on St Louis who play in Houston tonight.
The Cardinals send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.22) tonight. After being injured he has started only 13 games this season so far. After a nice start he struggled allowing a bunch of runs, but in his last 5 games he seems to have found his going again lowering his ERA from 8.32 to 6.22 during those 5 games. Although he went just 1-1 in that span his team won 4 of those 5. His career ERA against Houston is also very good at 2.98. He will be opposed to Bud Morris(5-3, 5.07). The rookie played very well in his last 3 starts. In his lone start against St Louis he shut them down over 7 innings. But now they know him a bit better. He piches well, but allows far too many walks, almost one in every two innings.
Should work well for St Louis that came back after losing 5 of six, they now won 3 of their last 4. They are also only two games away from the NL Central title. That gives them a little extra motivation. They own a 43-31 road record which is very good and they scored 18 runs in the first two games against Houston. The Astros team on the other side is the main reason for the pick here. They lost nine in a row and seem to have packed the season in. Firing the coach hasn't worked well, too. Often a team gets a boost when there's a new coach but that wasn't the case here with interim manager Dave Clark losing both being blown out in both games. They will have a day of rest tomorrow where they can get things together for their last ten games. Today they probably want to just get the game over.
With that said the pick will be on St Louis at 1.81 or -123 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on St Louis who play in Houston tonight.
The Cardinals send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.22) tonight. After being injured he has started only 13 games this season so far. After a nice start he struggled allowing a bunch of runs, but in his last 5 games he seems to have found his going again lowering his ERA from 8.32 to 6.22 during those 5 games. Although he went just 1-1 in that span his team won 4 of those 5. His career ERA against Houston is also very good at 2.98. He will be opposed to Bud Morris(5-3, 5.07). The rookie played very well in his last 3 starts. In his lone start against St Louis he shut them down over 7 innings. But now they know him a bit better. He piches well, but allows far too many walks, almost one in every two innings.
Should work well for St Louis that came back after losing 5 of six, they now won 3 of their last 4. They are also only two games away from the NL Central title. That gives them a little extra motivation. They own a 43-31 road record which is very good and they scored 18 runs in the first two games against Houston. The Astros team on the other side is the main reason for the pick here. They lost nine in a row and seem to have packed the season in. Firing the coach hasn't worked well, too. Often a team gets a boost when there's a new coach but that wasn't the case here with interim manager Dave Clark losing both being blown out in both games. They will have a day of rest tomorrow where they can get things together for their last ten games. Today they probably want to just get the game over.
With that said the pick will be on St Louis at 1.81 or -123 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/22/2009
Play on Colorado RL
Record: 18-23, +2.87
Today I recommend a play on Colorado on the run line hosting the San Diego Padres.
Colorado goes with Jorge De La Rosa(15-9, 4.17) opposing San Diego's Edward Mujica(3-4, 3.36) whose ERA looks better than De La Rosa's, but remember Dan Diego plays its games in the best pitcher park in the league while Colorado has the best hitter park. Mujica also isn't used to start games, he's only had two so far this season. Prior to that he came from the bullpen. In those two starts he dedn't reach the 5 inning mark though he pitched well but again both were in PETCO Park. De La Rosa is 7-2 in his last 10 and in his last four he never allowed more than one run. He walks too many but on the other hand he doesn't allow hits. He's winless against San Diego but that should change tonight as eleven days ago he played them and allowed only a run thrugh seven innings but didn't get the win because his teammates began to score later.
San Diego played well of late, but their last two series were against cupcakes Arizona and Pittsburgh. I can't believe they will even win this one. Colorado had a bad stretch in series at San Diego and San Francisco but came back recently winning 3 of their last 4. Of course they have to defend their Wild Card spot and if they want to keep it they have to win such matchups where the better team send the much better pitcher.
Looks like a big win by more than a run, so I will play on Colorado RL at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I recommend a play on Colorado on the run line hosting the San Diego Padres.
Colorado goes with Jorge De La Rosa(15-9, 4.17) opposing San Diego's Edward Mujica(3-4, 3.36) whose ERA looks better than De La Rosa's, but remember Dan Diego plays its games in the best pitcher park in the league while Colorado has the best hitter park. Mujica also isn't used to start games, he's only had two so far this season. Prior to that he came from the bullpen. In those two starts he dedn't reach the 5 inning mark though he pitched well but again both were in PETCO Park. De La Rosa is 7-2 in his last 10 and in his last four he never allowed more than one run. He walks too many but on the other hand he doesn't allow hits. He's winless against San Diego but that should change tonight as eleven days ago he played them and allowed only a run thrugh seven innings but didn't get the win because his teammates began to score later.
San Diego played well of late, but their last two series were against cupcakes Arizona and Pittsburgh. I can't believe they will even win this one. Colorado had a bad stretch in series at San Diego and San Francisco but came back recently winning 3 of their last 4. Of course they have to defend their Wild Card spot and if they want to keep it they have to win such matchups where the better team send the much better pitcher.
Looks like a big win by more than a run, so I will play on Colorado RL at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/21/2009
Play on San Francisco
Record: 17-23, +1.81
Today we see the Giants visiting Arizona.
Arizona sends Doug Davis(7-13, 4.01) who has had a nice season so far, but in his last few starts he struggled a bit as his ERA rised up. His numbers against SF aren't good at 4-7, 4.46 ERA. He will oppose lefty Barry Zito(10-12, 3.94) who is great posting one of the best ERAs in the league during the last two months. With Zito in such a great form I even don't care about his average numbers against Arizona.
We also see San Francisco playing for something while the D'backs don't. And even if the Giants' chances are far from great they can still make the playoffs with a great run. This can be done best with a start against a team that has packed it in for the season as Arizona seemingly did. As this play is not very strong to me I will only put a unit on that one at 2.06 or +106. Good Luck.
DG
Today we see the Giants visiting Arizona.
Arizona sends Doug Davis(7-13, 4.01) who has had a nice season so far, but in his last few starts he struggled a bit as his ERA rised up. His numbers against SF aren't good at 4-7, 4.46 ERA. He will oppose lefty Barry Zito(10-12, 3.94) who is great posting one of the best ERAs in the league during the last two months. With Zito in such a great form I even don't care about his average numbers against Arizona.
We also see San Francisco playing for something while the D'backs don't. And even if the Giants' chances are far from great they can still make the playoffs with a great run. This can be done best with a start against a team that has packed it in for the season as Arizona seemingly did. As this play is not very strong to me I will only put a unit on that one at 2.06 or +106. Good Luck.
DG
9/20/2009
Play on Seattle ML
Record: 16-22, +1.87
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I recommend a play on the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers. Bith teams won last week in impressive ways.
We saw the Seahawks winning 28-0 against St Louis that did look bad, but Seattle is still a very good team though they went 4-12 last season. Hasselbeck who missed most of last season because of injuries seems to be the key here. As he threw two early INTs, he went on to 25-26 for 279 yards and 3 TDs(and the 2 picks) in the end. He got great protection from his line and great help by RB Julius Jones who ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. The receiving corps with Carlson, Burleson and Houshmandzadeh looked good, too. If they can add Deion Branch today, this is a very dangerous crew. The defense that allowed most passing yards last season looked improved, too. Of course, after one game it is difficult to say if that's for real but I'll take it as it is.
The 49ers impressed with a win at Arizona, 20-16. They played nice defense then and held the passing game of the Cards to just 288 yards although they were without Steve Breaston. Their offense, however didn't impress me at all. Shaun Hill did a good job preventing mistakes. Average QB play is what San Francisco looked for after bad performances by Alex Smtih the last seasons. Hill went 18-31 for 209 yards along with a TD and no INT. That IS average. The running play didn't work as well as Frank Gore had a bad game despite his TD in the end. His longest run was for 6 yards on 22 attempts. He finished with only 30 yards. And don't forget Arizona's defense isn't one of the feared in the league.
So as Seattle really impressed me, and I'm sure they will play a nice role this season as before last season they won four straight division titles and had a SuperBowl appearance. One bad season doesn't make a team bad. San Francisco won on defense, but if you look deeper it wasn't that much impressive to beat Arizona. The Cardinals went only 8-8 last year in this weak division, then got a run in postseason and almost won the SuperBowl. No wonder, this team had to go downwards. You often see bad teams playing over their heads the right time. This season they should fall back on earth. San Francisco on the other hand was very motivated playing the reigning NFC Champions. Especially their defense showed up. This week you shouldn't expect them to repeat this. Play on Seattle ML at 1.98 or -102 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/19/2009
Play on Washington+19.5
Record: 16-23, +1.87
Today's play will be on Washington plus the points against USC.
Washington won last week, so they have one more win than at the end of last season. After this desastrous 0-12 season they seem well improved this year. Their defense is nice but they mostly profit from junior QB Jake Locker who is a very good passer(5TDs vs 1 INT) and a great runner. He ran for 51 vs LSU and 18 vs Idaho where he didn't need to run a lot as it was a pretty easy win for the Huskies. After covering easily against highly favored LSU in a 23-31 loss, they won against Idaho by 42-23. It was their first win after 15 losses, so they should have lost this heavy load. Today they are big underdogs again, but still at home as in the first two games. Nice chance to show up again.
USC have won both games so far. They blew away San Diego State 56-3 but trailed 0-3 after the first quarter. Second game was a huge win against Ohio State which was an important win for their hopes of an National Title game. They were very lucky, however, scoring the winning TD with 1:05 left in the fourth. They didn't cover that one, but they don't care. Freshman QB Barkley who got the starting job did well in that last drive, but overall he put up only average numbers with 1 TD and 1 INT in those two games.
Some nice aspects made me play that game: wen see Washington having played at home all the time while USC had to travel far last week and now goes on to play its second road game in a row. Their last game was a very big one and they won so this could be a letdown spot for them. Then we saw them playing a highly emotional game last week that strengthens the letdown spot. And we have a revenge situation here as Washington was badly blown out and held scoreless last year at USC.
Very nice facts for a cover by the home team. I'll play them by the spread of +19.5 at 1.98 or -102 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's play will be on Washington plus the points against USC.
Washington won last week, so they have one more win than at the end of last season. After this desastrous 0-12 season they seem well improved this year. Their defense is nice but they mostly profit from junior QB Jake Locker who is a very good passer(5TDs vs 1 INT) and a great runner. He ran for 51 vs LSU and 18 vs Idaho where he didn't need to run a lot as it was a pretty easy win for the Huskies. After covering easily against highly favored LSU in a 23-31 loss, they won against Idaho by 42-23. It was their first win after 15 losses, so they should have lost this heavy load. Today they are big underdogs again, but still at home as in the first two games. Nice chance to show up again.
USC have won both games so far. They blew away San Diego State 56-3 but trailed 0-3 after the first quarter. Second game was a huge win against Ohio State which was an important win for their hopes of an National Title game. They were very lucky, however, scoring the winning TD with 1:05 left in the fourth. They didn't cover that one, but they don't care. Freshman QB Barkley who got the starting job did well in that last drive, but overall he put up only average numbers with 1 TD and 1 INT in those two games.
Some nice aspects made me play that game: wen see Washington having played at home all the time while USC had to travel far last week and now goes on to play its second road game in a row. Their last game was a very big one and they won so this could be a letdown spot for them. Then we saw them playing a highly emotional game last week that strengthens the letdown spot. And we have a revenge situation here as Washington was badly blown out and held scoreless last year at USC.
Very nice facts for a cover by the home team. I'll play them by the spread of +19.5 at 1.98 or -102 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/18/2009
Play on Toronto
Record: 16-22, +2.87
For tonight I found only one game worth playing which is on the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters in James Shields(9-11, 4.03) who couldn't repeat last season numbers when he was one of the main reasons of the Rays' run to the World Series. However his ERA is not that much worse than last year, but the whole team is too inconsistent. Shield had a good ERA of 3.42 in mid season, gut has lowered it since then, especially in hs last few starts. In his last outing in Boston he was ok (3ERs in 6 innings), but still got the loss there. During his last 10, however, he was far too inconsistent to play him here. Toronto will send Scott Richmond(6-9, 5.03) to the mound who is actually worse than Shields, in his last four starts he allowed 5 or 6 runs in each one of them. But look at his opponents: in his last six he played against the Yankees, the Angels, Boston, Texas, Minnesota and Detroit which are all contenders for playoff spots or better. So he has really been tested during that span.
Tonight he will play against a Rays team that quit playing since their postseason dreams have gone. They lost 11 in a row and then went 2-2 at Baltimore, by far the worst team in the AL East. Toronto's season is over, too, they will post a losing record, but they still want to prove something as it seems. They split each of their last 4 series though they played tough competition, all playoff contenders: Yankees(twice), Minnesota and Detroit. One last point here: if you compare home/road play, you will find a big edge for Tampa Bay, but they play on turf which gives them an advantage against almost all teams. The only other teams playing on turf are Minnesota and -yes- Toronto. So part of that records come from turf play which is egalized here. That also translates on Richmond who is a run better at home(on turf). Should be good for him, too.
All this makes me play Toronto at nice dog odds of 2.67 or +167 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
For tonight I found only one game worth playing which is on the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters in James Shields(9-11, 4.03) who couldn't repeat last season numbers when he was one of the main reasons of the Rays' run to the World Series. However his ERA is not that much worse than last year, but the whole team is too inconsistent. Shield had a good ERA of 3.42 in mid season, gut has lowered it since then, especially in hs last few starts. In his last outing in Boston he was ok (3ERs in 6 innings), but still got the loss there. During his last 10, however, he was far too inconsistent to play him here. Toronto will send Scott Richmond(6-9, 5.03) to the mound who is actually worse than Shields, in his last four starts he allowed 5 or 6 runs in each one of them. But look at his opponents: in his last six he played against the Yankees, the Angels, Boston, Texas, Minnesota and Detroit which are all contenders for playoff spots or better. So he has really been tested during that span.
Tonight he will play against a Rays team that quit playing since their postseason dreams have gone. They lost 11 in a row and then went 2-2 at Baltimore, by far the worst team in the AL East. Toronto's season is over, too, they will post a losing record, but they still want to prove something as it seems. They split each of their last 4 series though they played tough competition, all playoff contenders: Yankees(twice), Minnesota and Detroit. One last point here: if you compare home/road play, you will find a big edge for Tampa Bay, but they play on turf which gives them an advantage against almost all teams. The only other teams playing on turf are Minnesota and -yes- Toronto. So part of that records come from turf play which is egalized here. That also translates on Richmond who is a run better at home(on turf). Should be good for him, too.
All this makes me play Toronto at nice dog odds of 2.67 or +167 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/17/2009
Play on Kansas City
Record: 15-22, +0.91
Today we get Greinke as a dog which is always worth a play. KC's season is a mess while Detroit fights for first place in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.19) opposes Edwin Jackson(12-6, 3.22) who has good numbers, too, but if you look at his last few starts he struggled worsening his ERA from 2.62 at the beginning of August to 3.22 now. Only once he allowed 2 ERs since then, in his other outings it was more. In his last one against Kansas he pitched six innings and collected 3 ERs on 9 hits and two walks which fits into his career stats vs KC. 3 runs along with one or two against the bullpen should be enough for KC to win this one. Greinke always has to pitch great to get wins, but he does so constantly. In his last three he combined for 24 innings with only one ER, 13 hits and 3 walks. Great numbers for him.
With that said Kansas City should be the play tonight at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today we get Greinke as a dog which is always worth a play. KC's season is a mess while Detroit fights for first place in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.19) opposes Edwin Jackson(12-6, 3.22) who has good numbers, too, but if you look at his last few starts he struggled worsening his ERA from 2.62 at the beginning of August to 3.22 now. Only once he allowed 2 ERs since then, in his other outings it was more. In his last one against Kansas he pitched six innings and collected 3 ERs on 9 hits and two walks which fits into his career stats vs KC. 3 runs along with one or two against the bullpen should be enough for KC to win this one. Greinke always has to pitch great to get wins, but he does so constantly. In his last three he combined for 24 innings with only one ER, 13 hits and 3 walks. Great numbers for him.
With that said Kansas City should be the play tonight at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/16/2009
Play on Oakland/Texas over 10
Record: 15-21, +1.91
Difficult board tonight. Oddsmakers made some good numbers for tonight as I think. Only possible pick tonight is on the over in the Oakland/Texas game in my eyes.
We saw two blowout wins by Oakland in the first two games of this series. Oakland's offense really hit well. Texas on the other hand badly needs wins to keep hopes for the postseason alive. They didn't show the last two days. But I believe they will come back tonight scoring a lot of runs. They scored only one in the first two games, but that's not Texas. They can hit and they will do so tonight.
They will face Oakland's Trevor Cahill(8-12, 4.74) who had some nice outings in August but his numbers went down steadily in his two September starts where he combined for 8 innings allowing 6ERs, 11 hits and 4 walks. He's okay against Texas at 1-1, 4.15 ERA, but those two games were in Oakland which is a great pitcher park as today he has to play in hitter park in Arlington. Texas goes with Dustin Nippert(5-2, 3.95) who has nice numbers but his status as a starter is always in doubt, probably because he doesn't eat many innings. Sometimes he is a starter, sometimes a reliever. On September 12th against Seattle he came from bullpen and allowed 2ERs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. He pitched 20.1 innings against Oakland allowing only 5 ERs,but again we see those numbers coming from games in Oakland where he pitched 14 innings with 1 ER. Surprisingly he is better at home this year, but I wouldn't count on that tonight against the rising Oakland offense. Both bullpens had to work a lot yesterday which will be good for the pick, too.
Looks like a high scoring affair tonight, but as I'm not very successful in picking totals, I will play the over 10 at 2.14 or +114 with only a unit. Good Luck.
DG
Difficult board tonight. Oddsmakers made some good numbers for tonight as I think. Only possible pick tonight is on the over in the Oakland/Texas game in my eyes.
We saw two blowout wins by Oakland in the first two games of this series. Oakland's offense really hit well. Texas on the other hand badly needs wins to keep hopes for the postseason alive. They didn't show the last two days. But I believe they will come back tonight scoring a lot of runs. They scored only one in the first two games, but that's not Texas. They can hit and they will do so tonight.
They will face Oakland's Trevor Cahill(8-12, 4.74) who had some nice outings in August but his numbers went down steadily in his two September starts where he combined for 8 innings allowing 6ERs, 11 hits and 4 walks. He's okay against Texas at 1-1, 4.15 ERA, but those two games were in Oakland which is a great pitcher park as today he has to play in hitter park in Arlington. Texas goes with Dustin Nippert(5-2, 3.95) who has nice numbers but his status as a starter is always in doubt, probably because he doesn't eat many innings. Sometimes he is a starter, sometimes a reliever. On September 12th against Seattle he came from bullpen and allowed 2ERs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. He pitched 20.1 innings against Oakland allowing only 5 ERs,but again we see those numbers coming from games in Oakland where he pitched 14 innings with 1 ER. Surprisingly he is better at home this year, but I wouldn't count on that tonight against the rising Oakland offense. Both bullpens had to work a lot yesterday which will be good for the pick, too.
Looks like a high scoring affair tonight, but as I'm not very successful in picking totals, I will play the over 10 at 2.14 or +114 with only a unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/15/2009
Play on San Francisco
Record: 13-21, -3.85
Second pick tonight will be on the Giants hosting Colorado. This is a nice matchup as San Francisco won the series opener yesterday and should be eager to cut down Colorado's lead for the wild card spot. We also see the Giants as one of the best home teams in the league at 47-25. Here, they are also 6-1 for the season against the Rockies. After struggling lately(lost 7 of their last 11) the Giants came back with two wins in a row where they scored really well, so the offense seems to be on a roll. On the other side we see Colorado going the opposite direction. They won 10 of 11 but lost their last three by a combined score of 6-19. So their offense seems to have taken a break right now. Their road record isn't bad at 37-36, but nothing special.
The Giants go with Barry Zito(9-12, 3.99) who has played a nice season so far. In his last few starts his numbers went down a bit but today he plays Colorado against whom he is 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA in his career. He even more liked them this year allowing only one ER in 21 innings. Colorado sends its ace Ubaldo Jimenez(13-10, 3.32) who played great, too, but his last start against Cincinnati was only average. Similar story as with Zito. The final point that convinced me playing SF here was that Jimenez had a sore hamstring. As this is a leg injury it may not affect him too much, but it is/was still an injury. And it made him to stay out two days ago which should have been his regular start, so even if the injury doesn't affect him at all he may still be a bit out of rhythm as his last start was 8 days before instead of six.
With all this said I would have expected even odds and as we see San Francisco as a dog with odds of 2.32 or +132 I will play them with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick tonight will be on the Giants hosting Colorado. This is a nice matchup as San Francisco won the series opener yesterday and should be eager to cut down Colorado's lead for the wild card spot. We also see the Giants as one of the best home teams in the league at 47-25. Here, they are also 6-1 for the season against the Rockies. After struggling lately(lost 7 of their last 11) the Giants came back with two wins in a row where they scored really well, so the offense seems to be on a roll. On the other side we see Colorado going the opposite direction. They won 10 of 11 but lost their last three by a combined score of 6-19. So their offense seems to have taken a break right now. Their road record isn't bad at 37-36, but nothing special.
The Giants go with Barry Zito(9-12, 3.99) who has played a nice season so far. In his last few starts his numbers went down a bit but today he plays Colorado against whom he is 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA in his career. He even more liked them this year allowing only one ER in 21 innings. Colorado sends its ace Ubaldo Jimenez(13-10, 3.32) who played great, too, but his last start against Cincinnati was only average. Similar story as with Zito. The final point that convinced me playing SF here was that Jimenez had a sore hamstring. As this is a leg injury it may not affect him too much, but it is/was still an injury. And it made him to stay out two days ago which should have been his regular start, so even if the injury doesn't affect him at all he may still be a bit out of rhythm as his last start was 8 days before instead of six.
With all this said I would have expected even odds and as we see San Francisco as a dog with odds of 2.32 or +132 I will play them with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Toronto RL
Record: 13-21, -3.85
First game tonight will be on Toronto visiting the Yankees. Toronto lost 20 of 28 during August and the beginning of September, but since then they have gone a nice 6-5. In their last five they averaged almost 5 runs which is pretty nice and should be more than enough today. New York is at top of the league and they will very probably have the best record heading into postseason giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They had a nice run winning 12 of 14, but they split their last four. Looks like it's time to sit back and peak when playoffs start. There's no value in winning 110 games and then lose in the first round.
Of course they still need some wins to secure first place, but today they face Roy Halladay(14-9, 3.03) who shuts them down frequently. He is 17-6 against them with a 2.83 ERA and also pitched seven complete games against them(5 in his last 9). His ERA went up a bit in his last ten starts, but don't forget the teams he pitched during those 10: Yankees twice, Red Sox twice and Tampa Bay even three times, all of them with potent offenses. He even had 4 complete games in that span. Don't expect too many Yankees runs. His opponent will be Sergio Mitre(3-2, 7.02) who has a winning record despite this ERA. The reasons are: the Yankees offense that gives him a lot of run support, and the fact that he sometimes pitches well, but the he sucks the next game. One of the teams he really doesn't like is Toronto. On September 6th he played the and allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks in just 4.1 innings. He played 3 of hs nine games this season against Toronto and the other two were better(how could they be worse!), but still far from good. And for the run support: the Yankees averaged 8.11 runs in Mitre's starts, that's why he is still 3-2. But no question: New York can't do that to Halladay.
With all those facts I believe Toronto will win by more than only one run, not only because of Mitre but the Yankee defense creates some errors at times, too. They usually egalize this by great hitting, but not today. Toronto on the run line at 2.56 or +156 with 2 units is the choice. Good Luck.
DG
First game tonight will be on Toronto visiting the Yankees. Toronto lost 20 of 28 during August and the beginning of September, but since then they have gone a nice 6-5. In their last five they averaged almost 5 runs which is pretty nice and should be more than enough today. New York is at top of the league and they will very probably have the best record heading into postseason giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They had a nice run winning 12 of 14, but they split their last four. Looks like it's time to sit back and peak when playoffs start. There's no value in winning 110 games and then lose in the first round.
Of course they still need some wins to secure first place, but today they face Roy Halladay(14-9, 3.03) who shuts them down frequently. He is 17-6 against them with a 2.83 ERA and also pitched seven complete games against them(5 in his last 9). His ERA went up a bit in his last ten starts, but don't forget the teams he pitched during those 10: Yankees twice, Red Sox twice and Tampa Bay even three times, all of them with potent offenses. He even had 4 complete games in that span. Don't expect too many Yankees runs. His opponent will be Sergio Mitre(3-2, 7.02) who has a winning record despite this ERA. The reasons are: the Yankees offense that gives him a lot of run support, and the fact that he sometimes pitches well, but the he sucks the next game. One of the teams he really doesn't like is Toronto. On September 6th he played the and allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks in just 4.1 innings. He played 3 of hs nine games this season against Toronto and the other two were better(how could they be worse!), but still far from good. And for the run support: the Yankees averaged 8.11 runs in Mitre's starts, that's why he is still 3-2. But no question: New York can't do that to Halladay.
With all those facts I believe Toronto will win by more than only one run, not only because of Mitre but the Yankee defense creates some errors at times, too. They usually egalize this by great hitting, but not today. Toronto on the run line at 2.56 or +156 with 2 units is the choice. Good Luck.
DG
9/14/2009
Play on Texas RL
Record: 12-20, -2.67
Second one for tonight will be on the Rangers hosting Oakland. This pick is even stronger than the first one so the stake will be a unit higher.
We see Texas going with Scott Feldman(16-4, 3.46) who's played a big season so far. His ERA at home is 1.1 higher than his overall ERA but that shouldn't be a problem as Rangers ballpark is one of the best hitters parks in the league. Feldman is also in great form as he won his last four games allowing only a run in more than 26 innings of work. He should be very motivated to keep this run going as he still has a shot to achieve the most wins among all MLB pitchers. He's also very good against Oakland at 3-2 and a 3.73 ERA. The Texas team played a great season as well and will be very motivated here, too. They do need wins, especially at home against bad teams like Oakland, because despite this great season they are trailing the Angels by six and the Red Sox by 4(wild card spot). We have a similar situation as with the Dodgers game as they have a weak opponent in the A's while LA play the Yankees tonight and then goes on for the series at Boston, so Texas can cut down their leads if they win 2 of the 3 at the very least against Oakland. They also have two series against the Angels later this month so chances are good for them.
Oakland sends Brett Tomko(4-3, 4.47) who came from the Yankees some weeks ago and started five games for the A's. His performance for the A's was pretty well with a 3.90 ERA. But this will be the first time he plays in a hitter park and if you look at his career stats against the Rangers you see him going 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA. So if you worry about Feldman's home ERA(of 4.56), look at Tomko's numbers in Rangers ballpark where he allows more than a run per inning. The A's have nothing to play for at 64-78 with ten wins behind third place Seattle. Teams that have nothing to play for don't win much on the road. Sometimes they play good at home in front of their fans, but they don't care much about road games.
Look for Texas to win this one big and take the 1.93 or -107 on the run line with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second one for tonight will be on the Rangers hosting Oakland. This pick is even stronger than the first one so the stake will be a unit higher.
We see Texas going with Scott Feldman(16-4, 3.46) who's played a big season so far. His ERA at home is 1.1 higher than his overall ERA but that shouldn't be a problem as Rangers ballpark is one of the best hitters parks in the league. Feldman is also in great form as he won his last four games allowing only a run in more than 26 innings of work. He should be very motivated to keep this run going as he still has a shot to achieve the most wins among all MLB pitchers. He's also very good against Oakland at 3-2 and a 3.73 ERA. The Texas team played a great season as well and will be very motivated here, too. They do need wins, especially at home against bad teams like Oakland, because despite this great season they are trailing the Angels by six and the Red Sox by 4(wild card spot). We have a similar situation as with the Dodgers game as they have a weak opponent in the A's while LA play the Yankees tonight and then goes on for the series at Boston, so Texas can cut down their leads if they win 2 of the 3 at the very least against Oakland. They also have two series against the Angels later this month so chances are good for them.
Oakland sends Brett Tomko(4-3, 4.47) who came from the Yankees some weeks ago and started five games for the A's. His performance for the A's was pretty well with a 3.90 ERA. But this will be the first time he plays in a hitter park and if you look at his career stats against the Rangers you see him going 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA. So if you worry about Feldman's home ERA(of 4.56), look at Tomko's numbers in Rangers ballpark where he allows more than a run per inning. The A's have nothing to play for at 64-78 with ten wins behind third place Seattle. Teams that have nothing to play for don't win much on the road. Sometimes they play good at home in front of their fans, but they don't care much about road games.
Look for Texas to win this one big and take the 1.93 or -107 on the run line with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on LA Dodgers RL
Record: 12-20, -2.67
Toaday's first play will be on the Dodgers who host the Pirates.
Pittsburgh will go with Daniel McCutchen(0-1, 4.85) opposing Dodger Jon Garland(9-11, 4.23) who came over from Arizona. Garland has had two starts with LA so far which both were well, ironically both were against his former team. For the Dodgers he is 1-0, 3.46 in those two games. Playing here in this big park should improve his numbers. His numbers against Pittsburgh are below average but he's had only 2 games (1 start) against them. McCutchen started his MLB career two weeks ago and had two average outings against Cincinnati and the Cubs.
Tonight, however, McCutchen has to play one of the best offenses in the NL, and LA has been tested lately against San Francisco who own one of the best pitching staffs in the league. They should have no problems to score some runs against the rookie. Plus, LA should be motivated here. They played contending San Francisco over the weekend which could point to a letdown situation, but actually it shouldn't be one as they lost yesterday and in this series against the Pirates they could make a big step towards the division title or the playoffs respectively as their biggest rivals Rockies and Giants play each other the next few days. So this is a big chance for them to get away from them. Pittsburgh's season is over as they will have a losing season and their only goal is to avoid the 100 losses mark. I wrote they will collect some road wins in their last few games, but now it seems they are just looking for some home wins to not lose 100 in the end. They will have some shots at home with remaining series against the Padres and the Reds. They also got a rare road win yesterday, so two in a row seems improbable with their road record of 19-52.
All that makes me play the much better team here in a good situation to win by two or more. I will play the run line at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Toaday's first play will be on the Dodgers who host the Pirates.
Pittsburgh will go with Daniel McCutchen(0-1, 4.85) opposing Dodger Jon Garland(9-11, 4.23) who came over from Arizona. Garland has had two starts with LA so far which both were well, ironically both were against his former team. For the Dodgers he is 1-0, 3.46 in those two games. Playing here in this big park should improve his numbers. His numbers against Pittsburgh are below average but he's had only 2 games (1 start) against them. McCutchen started his MLB career two weeks ago and had two average outings against Cincinnati and the Cubs.
Tonight, however, McCutchen has to play one of the best offenses in the NL, and LA has been tested lately against San Francisco who own one of the best pitching staffs in the league. They should have no problems to score some runs against the rookie. Plus, LA should be motivated here. They played contending San Francisco over the weekend which could point to a letdown situation, but actually it shouldn't be one as they lost yesterday and in this series against the Pirates they could make a big step towards the division title or the playoffs respectively as their biggest rivals Rockies and Giants play each other the next few days. So this is a big chance for them to get away from them. Pittsburgh's season is over as they will have a losing season and their only goal is to avoid the 100 losses mark. I wrote they will collect some road wins in their last few games, but now it seems they are just looking for some home wins to not lose 100 in the end. They will have some shots at home with remaining series against the Padres and the Reds. They also got a rare road win yesterday, so two in a row seems improbable with their road record of 19-52.
All that makes me play the much better team here in a good situation to win by two or more. I will play the run line at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/13/2009
Play on Green Bay -4.5
Record: 11-19, -3.52 (one pending)
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Kansas City +13
Record: 11-19, -3.52
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/12/2009
Play on Wake Forest -3
Record: 10-19, -8.27
Nice bet today on Wake Forest hosting Stanford.
Wake Forest lost its opener last week against Baylor. Wake is at home today while Stanford has a long road travel behind them. Stanford mostly works with its running game with RB Toby Gerhart who rushed for 121 yards last week in a 39-13 win at Washington State. This shouldn't be a big problem for Wake as they own a very good Defense where most of the line is back from last year. New Stanford QB Luck probably has to do some work which should be a problem for the young guy.
Wake Forest, losing by 3 to Baylor, has a versatile Offense using different RBs behind top QB Riley Skinner who should be the key here. He had decent numbers last week but threw 3 interceptions which shouldn't be the case today as he is usually not at all prone to throw INTs which you can see from his last years' stats. He's also behind an experinced O-Line, so be sure he will improve this week.
The -3 spread is a joke as I think they will win by double digits, so I will play them here at 1.95 or -105 with 5 units(highest possible stake). Good Luck.
DG
Nice bet today on Wake Forest hosting Stanford.
Wake Forest lost its opener last week against Baylor. Wake is at home today while Stanford has a long road travel behind them. Stanford mostly works with its running game with RB Toby Gerhart who rushed for 121 yards last week in a 39-13 win at Washington State. This shouldn't be a big problem for Wake as they own a very good Defense where most of the line is back from last year. New Stanford QB Luck probably has to do some work which should be a problem for the young guy.
Wake Forest, losing by 3 to Baylor, has a versatile Offense using different RBs behind top QB Riley Skinner who should be the key here. He had decent numbers last week but threw 3 interceptions which shouldn't be the case today as he is usually not at all prone to throw INTs which you can see from his last years' stats. He's also behind an experinced O-Line, so be sure he will improve this week.
The -3 spread is a joke as I think they will win by double digits, so I will play them here at 1.95 or -105 with 5 units(highest possible stake). Good Luck.
DG
9/11/2009
Play on Cleveland and Chicago WS
Record: 10-17, -3.27
Today I will play on the Cleveland Indians. They play against the Royals who recently achieved e series sweep against the Tigers.
The Royals send Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.22) who is probably this years' best pitcher. Despite his great ERA he owns a 13-8 record and it gets even worse if you look at his team starts. The Royals unbelievably lost 9 of Greinke's last 12 team starts and 13 of his last 18. Of course this comes from very poor offensive play as Greinke gets very few run support. It almost seems he has to pitch a shutout complete game to gain a win. His career numbers against the Indians are ok at 6-8, but a nice 3.62 ERA. On the home side we see Justin Masterson(4-7, 4.40) who came over from Boston. Though his numbers are average, he seems to feel comfortable at home in Cleveland where he has allowed only 10 hits (but 10 walks, too) in 15.1 innings and only one ER since his arrival.
So we have the pitching edge going to the Royals, but Masterson has good stuff and if he doesn't walk too many players he should be able to shut down this bad KC offense. The Indians lost their last three here at home against Texas, but of course the Rangers are way better than KC, especially on the hitting side. Cleveland also lost its last game 10-0 which creates a good spot here, because losing at home by double digits and scoring not a single run makes players angry. They had a day rest to get together and should now be eager to show their fans a much improved performance. Kansas won 4 in a row, but all at home. Now they have to play on the road which is a new situation. Maybe scoring one or two runs against Greinke will be enough for Cleveland, or they score against the KC bullpen who hopefully gets some innings. I will take them as dogs on a nice 2.28 or +128 with 2 units.
Second one will be on the White Sox who play on the road versus the Angels. Both teams own a nice winning stretch here.
The Sox send Gavin Floyd(11-9, 3.84) who did well of late going 6 or more innings in his last five games while putting up good numbers. He's good against LA with 1-2 and a 3.38 ERA while that win came 5 weeks ago when he held them to two runs(one earned) in 8 innings and a 6-2 Sox win. LA will go with Joe Saunders(12-7, 4.97) who actually owns the better record but his ERA of almost five is way too much. He started well into the season, but since the end of June his ERA went down from 3.66 to 4.97. His last three starts were ok, but he played Detroit, Seattle and Kansas City. His last game looked ok with only 2 ERs over 5.1 innings but he allowed 10 hits and a walks against the bad Kansas offense. His career stats vs Chicago at 2-2 and a 3.98 ERA are ok, but nothing special.
As said, both teams have nice winning stretches of late as Chicago won 6 of its last 8 and LA 6 of its last 7. The Angels did it by very good pitching, but they averaged only 3 runs over their last 9 games which probably won't be enough tonight. The Sox alternately won and lost in their last five games and while baseball is a game of streaks, I expect another win here. I will play the Sox as dogs at 2.24 or +124 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Cleveland Indians. They play against the Royals who recently achieved e series sweep against the Tigers.
The Royals send Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.22) who is probably this years' best pitcher. Despite his great ERA he owns a 13-8 record and it gets even worse if you look at his team starts. The Royals unbelievably lost 9 of Greinke's last 12 team starts and 13 of his last 18. Of course this comes from very poor offensive play as Greinke gets very few run support. It almost seems he has to pitch a shutout complete game to gain a win. His career numbers against the Indians are ok at 6-8, but a nice 3.62 ERA. On the home side we see Justin Masterson(4-7, 4.40) who came over from Boston. Though his numbers are average, he seems to feel comfortable at home in Cleveland where he has allowed only 10 hits (but 10 walks, too) in 15.1 innings and only one ER since his arrival.
So we have the pitching edge going to the Royals, but Masterson has good stuff and if he doesn't walk too many players he should be able to shut down this bad KC offense. The Indians lost their last three here at home against Texas, but of course the Rangers are way better than KC, especially on the hitting side. Cleveland also lost its last game 10-0 which creates a good spot here, because losing at home by double digits and scoring not a single run makes players angry. They had a day rest to get together and should now be eager to show their fans a much improved performance. Kansas won 4 in a row, but all at home. Now they have to play on the road which is a new situation. Maybe scoring one or two runs against Greinke will be enough for Cleveland, or they score against the KC bullpen who hopefully gets some innings. I will take them as dogs on a nice 2.28 or +128 with 2 units.
Second one will be on the White Sox who play on the road versus the Angels. Both teams own a nice winning stretch here.
The Sox send Gavin Floyd(11-9, 3.84) who did well of late going 6 or more innings in his last five games while putting up good numbers. He's good against LA with 1-2 and a 3.38 ERA while that win came 5 weeks ago when he held them to two runs(one earned) in 8 innings and a 6-2 Sox win. LA will go with Joe Saunders(12-7, 4.97) who actually owns the better record but his ERA of almost five is way too much. He started well into the season, but since the end of June his ERA went down from 3.66 to 4.97. His last three starts were ok, but he played Detroit, Seattle and Kansas City. His last game looked ok with only 2 ERs over 5.1 innings but he allowed 10 hits and a walks against the bad Kansas offense. His career stats vs Chicago at 2-2 and a 3.98 ERA are ok, but nothing special.
As said, both teams have nice winning stretches of late as Chicago won 6 of its last 8 and LA 6 of its last 7. The Angels did it by very good pitching, but they averaged only 3 runs over their last 9 games which probably won't be enough tonight. The Sox alternately won and lost in their last five games and while baseball is a game of streaks, I expect another win here. I will play the Sox as dogs at 2.24 or +124 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/10/2009
Play on Houston RL
Record: 10-16. -2.27
Today I recommend a play on Houston on the run line. We see Roy Oswalt(8-5, 3.77) going for Houston. He had two bad games about three weeks ago but since then he seems to be back on track. His WHIP numbers steadily improved the last three games in which he play against top teams like St Louis, Philadelphia and the Cubs who have also become better recently. Only his numbers agains the Braves are pretty bad at 0-2 and a 6.18 ERA in 6 starts, but actually he hasn't played them for a very long time except the one inning this season where he allowed a walk and had two Ks and then was stopped because of a rain delay.
His opponent will be Derek Lowe(13-9, 4.36) who started very good into the season but has moved on an average level since mid June. He went up and down all season and as his last few starts were ok, he has just played the Phillies as a good team.
I don't expect Lowe to allow too many runs as his career ERA vs the Astros is good at 3.10, but I don't expect the Braves to score many as well. They seem to be out of sync as they went 1-6 lately and their wild card chances are pretty small. They aren't too many games back, but there are other contenders in between and they can't expect all of them to struggle. Houston is out of the race, too, but they managed to play well in their last few games, and I expect them to keep on playing well, at least as long as they are at home. And posting a winning record is manageable for them if they keep winning their home games.
So I don't expect many runs and the better pitcher on the home side. Why play the run line and not the under you may ask. It's just because of the first two games in this series. The first won was won by Atlanta by 2-1, the second one went to Houston by the same result. Now, Houston is not a great pitcher park and as only a combined six runs have been scored in those two games I am carious to take the under(remember there is still a bullpen). And both of those games were won by a run so chances that this will happen again are rather small. That's why I take Houston on the run line at 2.86 or +186 with 1 units. Good Luck
DG
Today I recommend a play on Houston on the run line. We see Roy Oswalt(8-5, 3.77) going for Houston. He had two bad games about three weeks ago but since then he seems to be back on track. His WHIP numbers steadily improved the last three games in which he play against top teams like St Louis, Philadelphia and the Cubs who have also become better recently. Only his numbers agains the Braves are pretty bad at 0-2 and a 6.18 ERA in 6 starts, but actually he hasn't played them for a very long time except the one inning this season where he allowed a walk and had two Ks and then was stopped because of a rain delay.
His opponent will be Derek Lowe(13-9, 4.36) who started very good into the season but has moved on an average level since mid June. He went up and down all season and as his last few starts were ok, he has just played the Phillies as a good team.
I don't expect Lowe to allow too many runs as his career ERA vs the Astros is good at 3.10, but I don't expect the Braves to score many as well. They seem to be out of sync as they went 1-6 lately and their wild card chances are pretty small. They aren't too many games back, but there are other contenders in between and they can't expect all of them to struggle. Houston is out of the race, too, but they managed to play well in their last few games, and I expect them to keep on playing well, at least as long as they are at home. And posting a winning record is manageable for them if they keep winning their home games.
So I don't expect many runs and the better pitcher on the home side. Why play the run line and not the under you may ask. It's just because of the first two games in this series. The first won was won by Atlanta by 2-1, the second one went to Houston by the same result. Now, Houston is not a great pitcher park and as only a combined six runs have been scored in those two games I am carious to take the under(remember there is still a bullpen). And both of those games were won by a run so chances that this will happen again are rather small. That's why I take Houston on the run line at 2.86 or +186 with 1 units. Good Luck
DG
9/08/2009
Play on St. Louis and Phi/Was Under9
Record: 8-16, -4.78
Today I recommend a play on St. Louis. They play their second game at Milwaukee after they won 3-0 yesterday with their ace Chris Carpenter. They will send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.63) to the hill with his great 2.65 ERA since he is a Cardinal what he is for just two games so far. For Boston he was bad this season with 2-5 and 8.32 ERA but this is another league now. For pitchers it is much easier to play in the NL because the AL is the superior league and there is the DH which isn't the case here. He opposes Manny Parra(10-10, 6.47) who is on a 6-2 run but that mostly came from great run support. In that stretch he allowed 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6 and 2 runs and only once made more than six innings. In his last outing he got the win against that same Cardinals team and Smoltz. But don't worry, Smoltz didn't really pitch bad. He allowed 4 ERs, but that came on only 6 hits and no walk in 6 innings, so this was a bit of bad luck. 3 of those 4 runs came in the 6th so today his coach should know when to take him off the field. Parra had 2 ERs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6.1 innings which isn't really better than Smoltz' performance. Parra's WHIP of 1.84 speaks for itself. Even if Smoltz will last only 5 or 6 innings St Louis still has a rested bullpen as Carpenter pitched a complete game yesterday.
Of course we also see one of the top teams in the league against a team that had high hopes in midseason but blew away its playoff chances during the last few weeks. I expect St Louis to keep on winning and a frustrated Brewer crew that probably already gave up its postseason dreams.
I play on St Louis at 1.82 or -121 with 2 units.
Second play is the under at the Philadelphia/ Washington matchup. Here we have Philly Pedro Martinez(3-0, 3.52) who is back on track since he is in Philadelphia. After he needed his first two or three games he seems to be fully back now and even those games weren't bad as the Phillies won all of his 5 starts. He's also 5-3, 2.74 against Washington in his career. For the Nationals we see John Lannan(8-10, 4.09) who wasn't good lately but I believe this game against the World Champions he will be motivated to show his abilities as the season for the Nationals has long been over. Of course his career stats vs the Phillies aren't good at 0-5 and a 5.89 ERA, but that mostly came on games in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. At home he is 5-1, 2.62 for the season and this is why I think he will be good tonight. Another addition is that the game will be played in pitcher friendly National Stadium.
The Phillies have a strong offense but look at their scoring lately: they haven't scored more than 4 runs since August 24. I don't believe that they explode tonight in a pitcher park against one of Washington's best pitchers, especially at home.
I play the under 9 at 1.87 or -115 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
Today I recommend a play on St. Louis. They play their second game at Milwaukee after they won 3-0 yesterday with their ace Chris Carpenter. They will send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.63) to the hill with his great 2.65 ERA since he is a Cardinal what he is for just two games so far. For Boston he was bad this season with 2-5 and 8.32 ERA but this is another league now. For pitchers it is much easier to play in the NL because the AL is the superior league and there is the DH which isn't the case here. He opposes Manny Parra(10-10, 6.47) who is on a 6-2 run but that mostly came from great run support. In that stretch he allowed 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6 and 2 runs and only once made more than six innings. In his last outing he got the win against that same Cardinals team and Smoltz. But don't worry, Smoltz didn't really pitch bad. He allowed 4 ERs, but that came on only 6 hits and no walk in 6 innings, so this was a bit of bad luck. 3 of those 4 runs came in the 6th so today his coach should know when to take him off the field. Parra had 2 ERs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6.1 innings which isn't really better than Smoltz' performance. Parra's WHIP of 1.84 speaks for itself. Even if Smoltz will last only 5 or 6 innings St Louis still has a rested bullpen as Carpenter pitched a complete game yesterday.
Of course we also see one of the top teams in the league against a team that had high hopes in midseason but blew away its playoff chances during the last few weeks. I expect St Louis to keep on winning and a frustrated Brewer crew that probably already gave up its postseason dreams.
I play on St Louis at 1.82 or -121 with 2 units.
Second play is the under at the Philadelphia/ Washington matchup. Here we have Philly Pedro Martinez(3-0, 3.52) who is back on track since he is in Philadelphia. After he needed his first two or three games he seems to be fully back now and even those games weren't bad as the Phillies won all of his 5 starts. He's also 5-3, 2.74 against Washington in his career. For the Nationals we see John Lannan(8-10, 4.09) who wasn't good lately but I believe this game against the World Champions he will be motivated to show his abilities as the season for the Nationals has long been over. Of course his career stats vs the Phillies aren't good at 0-5 and a 5.89 ERA, but that mostly came on games in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. At home he is 5-1, 2.62 for the season and this is why I think he will be good tonight. Another addition is that the game will be played in pitcher friendly National Stadium.
The Phillies have a strong offense but look at their scoring lately: they haven't scored more than 4 runs since August 24. I don't believe that they explode tonight in a pitcher park against one of Washington's best pitchers, especially at home.
I play the under 9 at 1.87 or -115 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
9/07/2009
Play on Tampa Bay
Record: 8-15, -2.78
Bad Football weekend. Today I'll go back to the MLB with a small play on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game against the Yankees.
The Rays go with Matt Garza(7-9, 4.01) opposing Yankees ace CC Sabathia(16-7, 3.48). Sabathia played very well of late as he is 8-1 in his last ten starts, but remember who the opponents were! He didn't play many good teams during that stretch. OK, There was Boston twice(both of them he won), the Tigers(also a win) and tonight's opponent Tampa Bay(which was the loss in those 10 games). The rest was offensively average or below average teams. In his career he played very good against the Rays at 7-2 and a 2.95 ERA. His last start, however, he lost as mentioned. Garza did play average over his last few starts, but I think it is a bit misleading as his WHIP was still good in that span though he suffered some runs. If we look at his opponents, we see great hitting teams in his last seven starts with Boston twice, the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and the Blue Jays who hit well at times, too. He is also able to eat some innings as he averages way over six per game. He is only 1-3 vs the Yanks, but his ERA of 3.80 is still pretty well.
The Yankees won seven in a row, but recently lost 2 of their last 3 which could be a sign that the winning stretch is over. The Rays on the other side have had a bad losing streak of late, but there were many close losses and they usually weren't blown out. One big aspect to me is yesterday's loss against the Tigers when they led 3-1 but suffered 4 runs in the ninth inning. They should be angry and fired up tonight, especially in the first game. They also badly need wins if they want to get a shot at the wild card spot which isn't lost yet but as said they really need a winning streak. This streak should start today against a Yankee team that owns a comfortable lead in the AL East. Possibly they lay back a bit now to get back on fire when playoffs start.
So we have the pitching edge for New York, but in my eyes it is not that big as odds suggest. And as a team the Rays should win and are in a good position to do so as they are probably fired up against a Yankee team that can sit back and relax a bit. So I will play the Rays here with 2 units at 2.80 or +180.
Good Luck
Bad Football weekend. Today I'll go back to the MLB with a small play on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game against the Yankees.
The Rays go with Matt Garza(7-9, 4.01) opposing Yankees ace CC Sabathia(16-7, 3.48). Sabathia played very well of late as he is 8-1 in his last ten starts, but remember who the opponents were! He didn't play many good teams during that stretch. OK, There was Boston twice(both of them he won), the Tigers(also a win) and tonight's opponent Tampa Bay(which was the loss in those 10 games). The rest was offensively average or below average teams. In his career he played very good against the Rays at 7-2 and a 2.95 ERA. His last start, however, he lost as mentioned. Garza did play average over his last few starts, but I think it is a bit misleading as his WHIP was still good in that span though he suffered some runs. If we look at his opponents, we see great hitting teams in his last seven starts with Boston twice, the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and the Blue Jays who hit well at times, too. He is also able to eat some innings as he averages way over six per game. He is only 1-3 vs the Yanks, but his ERA of 3.80 is still pretty well.
The Yankees won seven in a row, but recently lost 2 of their last 3 which could be a sign that the winning stretch is over. The Rays on the other side have had a bad losing streak of late, but there were many close losses and they usually weren't blown out. One big aspect to me is yesterday's loss against the Tigers when they led 3-1 but suffered 4 runs in the ninth inning. They should be angry and fired up tonight, especially in the first game. They also badly need wins if they want to get a shot at the wild card spot which isn't lost yet but as said they really need a winning streak. This streak should start today against a Yankee team that owns a comfortable lead in the AL East. Possibly they lay back a bit now to get back on fire when playoffs start.
So we have the pitching edge for New York, but in my eyes it is not that big as odds suggest. And as a team the Rays should win and are in a good position to do so as they are probably fired up against a Yankee team that can sit back and relax a bit. So I will play the Rays here with 2 units at 2.80 or +180.
Good Luck
8/30/2009
Play on Buffalo-3 and Akron/PSU over 59
Record: 8-13, +1.22
First play will be on Buffalo. I will again go against Detroit here. They needed a win and actually got two, both at home. But in both games they only won by a point, in their road game they were outplayed badly and they should be outplayed here again on the road.
I will bet on Buffalo -3 at 1.86 or -116 with 2 units.
Second one will be the over on the Akron/Penn State matchup. PSU returns all its important players on the Offense, they should be able to score a lot of points. However they lost all of their good backfield on Defense and while Akron is a good passing team they should score some points as well. I believe this one sails way over the line. No doubt Penn State should win easily, but this should be a shootout game.
So I will play the over 59 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units as well.
8/28/2009
Play on Arizona -3.5 and Pittsburgh
Record: 8-11, +5.22
Today I really like Arizona minus the points. They haven't won a game yet while Green Bay won both of its games in preseason. Arizona lost last week at home, so they should be very motivated to rehab in front of their fans. They didn't score a lot so far, too, with 10 points in week 1 and only 6 last week. Time to come up big tonight.
Green Bay won both games jumping out to an early lead in both games. Time for them to relax a bit, and it will be their first road game as both other contests were at home. So this should be a completely different game which Arizona should leave as the winner.
I will play the spread of -3.5 on Arizona with 2 units at 1.99 or -101.
Other pick is on the Pirates who visit Milwaukee. I really don't know why the Brewers are favored so much. Ok, Milwaukee got swept in its last home series vs Cincinnati and now badly needs a win over visiting Pittsburgh that played at home yesterday but didn't need to make a very long trip here. As said Milwaukee is in bad form losing 8 of their last 11 and Pittsburgh won 7 of its last 9. Edge goes to Pirates.
Another point is the pitching duel. Zach Duke(10-11, 3.38) has very good numbers although he posts a losing record. That's because he often didn't get much run support. On the other side we have Brewer Manny Parra(8-10, 6.54) with bad numbers despite an acceptable 8-10 record. He's the opposite of Duke. He won 4 of his last six despite terrible performances, but he got much run support. That ended in his last two starts where he pitched bad again and lost both of them.
So we have the much better pitcher going for Pittsburgh and the Pirates also in better form which should mean runs for Duke. The only reason for those crazy odds is -as far as I can see- the Pirates playing on the road where they are 18-43 this season. But this record looks really bad and shouldn't go down much more, I would rather say they will be close to .50 for the rest of the season.
I will play on Pittsburgh here at 2.36 or +136 with 2 units.
Good Luck
Today I really like Arizona minus the points. They haven't won a game yet while Green Bay won both of its games in preseason. Arizona lost last week at home, so they should be very motivated to rehab in front of their fans. They didn't score a lot so far, too, with 10 points in week 1 and only 6 last week. Time to come up big tonight.
Green Bay won both games jumping out to an early lead in both games. Time for them to relax a bit, and it will be their first road game as both other contests were at home. So this should be a completely different game which Arizona should leave as the winner.
I will play the spread of -3.5 on Arizona with 2 units at 1.99 or -101.
Other pick is on the Pirates who visit Milwaukee. I really don't know why the Brewers are favored so much. Ok, Milwaukee got swept in its last home series vs Cincinnati and now badly needs a win over visiting Pittsburgh that played at home yesterday but didn't need to make a very long trip here. As said Milwaukee is in bad form losing 8 of their last 11 and Pittsburgh won 7 of its last 9. Edge goes to Pirates.
Another point is the pitching duel. Zach Duke(10-11, 3.38) has very good numbers although he posts a losing record. That's because he often didn't get much run support. On the other side we have Brewer Manny Parra(8-10, 6.54) with bad numbers despite an acceptable 8-10 record. He's the opposite of Duke. He won 4 of his last six despite terrible performances, but he got much run support. That ended in his last two starts where he pitched bad again and lost both of them.
So we have the much better pitcher going for Pittsburgh and the Pirates also in better form which should mean runs for Duke. The only reason for those crazy odds is -as far as I can see- the Pirates playing on the road where they are 18-43 this season. But this record looks really bad and shouldn't go down much more, I would rather say they will be close to .50 for the rest of the season.
I will play on Pittsburgh here at 2.36 or +136 with 2 units.
Good Luck
8/25/2009
Play on Pittsburgh
Record: 7-11, +0.27
Ridiculous odds here. We have Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh tonight as the pitching matchup will be Joe Blanton(8-6, 3.86) vs. Ross Ohlendorf(11-8, 4.15) which is a very even matchup. Blanton allowed 3 runs only three times in his last 10 starts (never more than 3) while Ohlendorf allowed 3 runs two times and five runs once. Both have similar ERAs and WHIPs. Blanton is great in two starts against Pittsburgh while Ohlendorf was ok in his lone start vs Philadelphia. So we have a pretty even pitching duel and have to search for other factors.
We see both teams hot, especially Philadelphia on its 11-2 run while Pittsburgh won 5 of its last 6. Philadelphia's last day of rest was on 17th while Pittsburgh plays its third home series in a row with a day rest between each series. So the Pirates should be more rested.
If we weigh up all the factors mentioned here, we have a pretty even matchup, maybe with a very little advantage for the Phillies, but with odds of 2.65 or +165 for Pittsburgh I have to play on them with 3 units.
Good Luck
Ridiculous odds here. We have Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh tonight as the pitching matchup will be Joe Blanton(8-6, 3.86) vs. Ross Ohlendorf(11-8, 4.15) which is a very even matchup. Blanton allowed 3 runs only three times in his last 10 starts (never more than 3) while Ohlendorf allowed 3 runs two times and five runs once. Both have similar ERAs and WHIPs. Blanton is great in two starts against Pittsburgh while Ohlendorf was ok in his lone start vs Philadelphia. So we have a pretty even pitching duel and have to search for other factors.
We see both teams hot, especially Philadelphia on its 11-2 run while Pittsburgh won 5 of its last 6. Philadelphia's last day of rest was on 17th while Pittsburgh plays its third home series in a row with a day rest between each series. So the Pirates should be more rested.
If we weigh up all the factors mentioned here, we have a pretty even matchup, maybe with a very little advantage for the Phillies, but with odds of 2.65 or +165 for Pittsburgh I have to play on them with 3 units.
Good Luck
8/22/2009
Play on Cleveland -3.5, Washington -3.5 and Texas
Record: 5-10, -4.27
Still angry about Toronto yesterday. Today we have a perfect scenario in Cleveland that lost 0-17 last week against Green Bay and should be highly motivated to turn things around today. They play against last year 0-16 Detroit. I don't care much about the lineups in preseason games as starters don't play very much. Matt Stafford gets the starting QB job for the Lions tonight, he should be motivated, too as he's battling for the starting job. But the Lions team is too bad as a whole. Last week I wanted to take them as they should have shown something after this cruel season. They did as they won by one but didn't cover the spread. So they have their win for now but didn't show major improvement.
As the Browns are the much more motivated team they should win this one easily and I put 4 units on the spread at -3.5 with odds of 1.90 or -111.
Second one will be on Washington that lost even bigger by 0-23 at Buffalo. They also have to prove something tonight and what better opponent could they have to prove their abilities as the reigning champs Steelers. The Steelers themselves won last week in a small rematch of last SuperBowl matchup against Arizona by 20-10. Time to relax a bit now for them and the Redskins should have no problems winning this one.
I'll give them a shot with 3 units at the -3.5 spread and odds of 1.98 or -102.
Last one will be Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Texas Rangers. Both teams fight for the wild card spot right now and the Rays won yesterdays series opener. Today they go with Matt Garza(7-8, 3.73) who did well over the season but had some suspect outings lately. His ERA is still solid but his WHIP decreased over the last few games. Also, his last start against the Rangers was really bad. Texas sends Tommy Hunter(6-2, 2.64) who also had two lesser starts lately but is still great for the season. His lone start against the Rays was on July 3rd and pitched great then.
So, with Tampa in better form and at home where they are 41-20 they should be the faves here, but surely not that high as Texas owns a good offense, too, and at least an equal pitcher. With odds of 2.63 or +163 I have to go with them by 2 units.
Good Luck
Still angry about Toronto yesterday. Today we have a perfect scenario in Cleveland that lost 0-17 last week against Green Bay and should be highly motivated to turn things around today. They play against last year 0-16 Detroit. I don't care much about the lineups in preseason games as starters don't play very much. Matt Stafford gets the starting QB job for the Lions tonight, he should be motivated, too as he's battling for the starting job. But the Lions team is too bad as a whole. Last week I wanted to take them as they should have shown something after this cruel season. They did as they won by one but didn't cover the spread. So they have their win for now but didn't show major improvement.
As the Browns are the much more motivated team they should win this one easily and I put 4 units on the spread at -3.5 with odds of 1.90 or -111.
Second one will be on Washington that lost even bigger by 0-23 at Buffalo. They also have to prove something tonight and what better opponent could they have to prove their abilities as the reigning champs Steelers. The Steelers themselves won last week in a small rematch of last SuperBowl matchup against Arizona by 20-10. Time to relax a bit now for them and the Redskins should have no problems winning this one.
I'll give them a shot with 3 units at the -3.5 spread and odds of 1.98 or -102.
Last one will be Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Texas Rangers. Both teams fight for the wild card spot right now and the Rays won yesterdays series opener. Today they go with Matt Garza(7-8, 3.73) who did well over the season but had some suspect outings lately. His ERA is still solid but his WHIP decreased over the last few games. Also, his last start against the Rangers was really bad. Texas sends Tommy Hunter(6-2, 2.64) who also had two lesser starts lately but is still great for the season. His lone start against the Rays was on July 3rd and pitched great then.
So, with Tampa in better form and at home where they are 41-20 they should be the faves here, but surely not that high as Texas owns a good offense, too, and at least an equal pitcher. With odds of 2.63 or +163 I have to go with them by 2 units.
Good Luck
8/21/2009
Play on Toronto RL and Oakland
Record: 5-8, -0.27
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
8/20/2009
Play on Indianapolis ML
Record: 4-8, -1.80
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
8/17/2009
Play on Atlanta RL and Texas RL
record: 2-8, -10.82
Game yesterday postponed. Today we have two nice bets. First one will be on Atlanta that sends Tommy Hanson(7-2, 3.05) who did very well this season. In 12 starts he allowed more than 2 runs only four times and didn't reach the 6th inning three times at 5, 5.1 and 5.2 innings, so this is a solid performance for the rookie. Also in his last three he got better from game to game which doesn't give us hints that he could have any kind of problems right now.
The D'backs will go with Max Scherzer(7-6, 3.94) who has nice numbers over the whole season but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.18 and a WHIP of 1.69. He could be a bit out of form although his last outing against the Mets was a good one. This season he could hold the Braves scoreless in six innings in Atlanta but was crushed at home with 8 ERs in 3.2 innings.
Atlanta was 1-2 in the series against the Phillies which means they are 4.5 games behind them now, but they are still close to the Wild Card spot so they have to get back on track today. Prior to the Phillies series they were on a 7-1 run and now facing a much worse team than yesterday they should be able to do so. The D'backs played well last week posting some nice wins against the Dodgers and Mets but they didn't score too many runs and are still far away from playoff chances. They also come a long way from Phoenix to Atlanta for only a game postponed on May 17th to go on to Philadelphia tomorrow.
I don't believe Arizona will be competitive here so the Braves who need the win more are my choice on the run line at 2.37 or +137. I will play it with 2 units.
Second pick is on the Texas Rangers who host the Twins. On the mound we will see Tommy Hunter(5-2, 2.26) opposing Francisco Liriano(5-11, 5.39). I really like Liriano as a pitcher, but although he had a good game last week and a nice one a few weeks ago here in Texas he still isn't good over the season as he is too inconsistent and allows a bit too many walks. As said he was good in his last start but it was against a bad Royals team and today it will be much more difficult for him. Ranger Hunter had a bad year in 08 when he had 20 ERs in just 11 innings but this year he is great so far allowing more than 2 ERs only twice with 3 and 4. His WHIP of 1.13 tells the same story. He's a bit better on the road but doesn't matter as Rangers ballpark is not easy for pitchers.
We also see Texas in good form as they are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the Wild Card spot for the moment thanks to winning their last two against Boston. Minnesota on the other hand lost both home series against two of the three worst AL Teams Kansas City and Cleveland and now they have to go to one of the top AL Teams. Not a good sign for them. They also come a long way to Texas and while they played at 70 degrees F yesterday, today they have to play in up to 20 degrees warmer weather which isn't a good thing for them too as the Rangers played here yesterday and could rest waiting for them and are used to play with these temperatures.
All good signs to post a big win so I'll take them on the run line too at 2.57 or +157 with 4 units as this is an especially strong play for me.
Good Luck
Game yesterday postponed. Today we have two nice bets. First one will be on Atlanta that sends Tommy Hanson(7-2, 3.05) who did very well this season. In 12 starts he allowed more than 2 runs only four times and didn't reach the 6th inning three times at 5, 5.1 and 5.2 innings, so this is a solid performance for the rookie. Also in his last three he got better from game to game which doesn't give us hints that he could have any kind of problems right now.
The D'backs will go with Max Scherzer(7-6, 3.94) who has nice numbers over the whole season but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.18 and a WHIP of 1.69. He could be a bit out of form although his last outing against the Mets was a good one. This season he could hold the Braves scoreless in six innings in Atlanta but was crushed at home with 8 ERs in 3.2 innings.
Atlanta was 1-2 in the series against the Phillies which means they are 4.5 games behind them now, but they are still close to the Wild Card spot so they have to get back on track today. Prior to the Phillies series they were on a 7-1 run and now facing a much worse team than yesterday they should be able to do so. The D'backs played well last week posting some nice wins against the Dodgers and Mets but they didn't score too many runs and are still far away from playoff chances. They also come a long way from Phoenix to Atlanta for only a game postponed on May 17th to go on to Philadelphia tomorrow.
I don't believe Arizona will be competitive here so the Braves who need the win more are my choice on the run line at 2.37 or +137. I will play it with 2 units.
Second pick is on the Texas Rangers who host the Twins. On the mound we will see Tommy Hunter(5-2, 2.26) opposing Francisco Liriano(5-11, 5.39). I really like Liriano as a pitcher, but although he had a good game last week and a nice one a few weeks ago here in Texas he still isn't good over the season as he is too inconsistent and allows a bit too many walks. As said he was good in his last start but it was against a bad Royals team and today it will be much more difficult for him. Ranger Hunter had a bad year in 08 when he had 20 ERs in just 11 innings but this year he is great so far allowing more than 2 ERs only twice with 3 and 4. His WHIP of 1.13 tells the same story. He's a bit better on the road but doesn't matter as Rangers ballpark is not easy for pitchers.
We also see Texas in good form as they are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the Wild Card spot for the moment thanks to winning their last two against Boston. Minnesota on the other hand lost both home series against two of the three worst AL Teams Kansas City and Cleveland and now they have to go to one of the top AL Teams. Not a good sign for them. They also come a long way to Texas and while they played at 70 degrees F yesterday, today they have to play in up to 20 degrees warmer weather which isn't a good thing for them too as the Rangers played here yesterday and could rest waiting for them and are used to play with these temperatures.
All good signs to post a big win so I'll take them on the run line too at 2.57 or +157 with 4 units as this is an especially strong play for me.
Good Luck
8/16/2009
Play on Pittsburgh
Record: 2-8, -10.82
First pick today will be on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs won the first two games of the series and send Rich Harden(7-7, 4.30) today. He will have to mess with Ross Ohlendorf(10-8, 4.30). Both pitchers did well in their last few games. Both are also 1-0 in head to head situation and both prefer night games. We see Ohlendorf pitching a run better at home and Harden two runs better on the road. The Cubs bullpen seems to feel comfortable and the Pirates pen got a little rest yesterday when Zach Duke went more than seven innings. So the pitching matchup is pretty even.
The crazy odds come from the Pirates latest slump when they lost their last four with a combined 4-38 runs. But they were competitive when they got good pitching which they should get by Ohlendorf. Their cruel 18-43 road record is not going to last for the season. Look for them to get a bit better on the road and a bit worse at home, hopefully starting tonight.
So the Cubs are faves for sure but I'll put 2 units on these crazy 3.45 or +245 on the Pirates.
Good Luck
First pick today will be on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs won the first two games of the series and send Rich Harden(7-7, 4.30) today. He will have to mess with Ross Ohlendorf(10-8, 4.30). Both pitchers did well in their last few games. Both are also 1-0 in head to head situation and both prefer night games. We see Ohlendorf pitching a run better at home and Harden two runs better on the road. The Cubs bullpen seems to feel comfortable and the Pirates pen got a little rest yesterday when Zach Duke went more than seven innings. So the pitching matchup is pretty even.
The crazy odds come from the Pirates latest slump when they lost their last four with a combined 4-38 runs. But they were competitive when they got good pitching which they should get by Ohlendorf. Their cruel 18-43 road record is not going to last for the season. Look for them to get a bit better on the road and a bit worse at home, hopefully starting tonight.
So the Cubs are faves for sure but I'll put 2 units on these crazy 3.45 or +245 on the Pirates.
Good Luck
Abonnieren
Posts (Atom)