Record: 25-37, -5.76
Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.
The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.
Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.
If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.
One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!
Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.
DG
10/24/2009
10/19/2009
Free Pick: LA Dodgers
Record: 25-36, -2.76
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/18/2009
Free Pick: Philadelphia-13.5
Record: 25-35, -0.76
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
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