Record: 33-44, -0.10
Today’s free pick will be on the Giants beating Atlanta by more than 3.
Atlanta played a great regular season last year, but when it came to the playoffs they stumbled against Super Bowl Champs Green Bay. This year they did a good job as well posting a 10-6 record which is better than the Giants‘.
They have some nice weapons in RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White on offense. They put up the score at times but if you look closer at it, you can see they struggled against better teams. The only good teams they beat was Detroit and maybe Tennessee.
The Giants only had a 9-7 record qualifying for postseason play as the worst of then remaining NFC teams. Several weeks ago, nobody (including me) would have bet a cent on the Giants making the playoffs. Since then, however they played very focused and concentrated which reminds me of their Super Bowl run in 2007.
They are very balanced on offense and defense. With Eli Manning they have a very smart playmaker who even showed late game comeback abilities, especially lately. With Jacobs there’s also a good RB as well as a nice receiving staff – among them deep threat Cruz on whom the Falcons defense has to have two or four eyes.
On defense they have a tough line which can put a lot of pressure on Turner. The secondary behind Rolle is also very smart.
In all, the Giants have the home field advantage against a Falcons team that usually plays on turf. The Giants mediocre record shouldn’t scare you as they lost to some bad teams but won or played tough against the good teams as Green Bay when they lost 35-38, the same result they lost to the Patriots in 2007. I don’t believe in such things but when I see them playing a Super Bowl run as in 2007 wouldn’t surprise me that much. Giants –3 is the pick with 3 units at 2.07 or +107.
DG
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1/24/2010
Free Pick: New York Jets ML
Record: 29-43, -11.50
Today's free pick will be on the New York Jets to win outright.
I read some analyses for that game and everywhere I saw people saying the Colts can't lose this one. Some said the Jets won't have the luck of two blown Field Goals again as was the case in San Diego. That may be true but the Chargers have still one of the best if offenses in the league, along with the Saints and Cards. So holding that offense to 17 points is very good and it's no coincidence that the Jets' defense is No 1 in the NFL. Others said there has never been a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. That's true as well, but some time it will happen, so why not now. Two years ago Eli Manning was close to a rookie and played pretty much like Sanchez now not throwing bombs and avoiding mistakes.
The Jets own the best defense and the best running game which will be a plus against Indy's bad run defense which kept Baltimore to less than 100 yards but an average of 4.6. This was because Baltimore fell behind early by two TDs and they had to throw. So it wasn't really good run defense by the Colts. This will be the key here for New York, not falling too far behind early. If Sanchez has to make big plays they'll fail, but the longer it is close the better are the Jets' chances. And Manning's targets aren't very playoff proven apart from Reggie Wayne who should be covered by Revis and Manning better not throw into his direction.
Nice value for the dog here which I will play at 4.11 or +311 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on the New York Jets to win outright.
I read some analyses for that game and everywhere I saw people saying the Colts can't lose this one. Some said the Jets won't have the luck of two blown Field Goals again as was the case in San Diego. That may be true but the Chargers have still one of the best if offenses in the league, along with the Saints and Cards. So holding that offense to 17 points is very good and it's no coincidence that the Jets' defense is No 1 in the NFL. Others said there has never been a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. That's true as well, but some time it will happen, so why not now. Two years ago Eli Manning was close to a rookie and played pretty much like Sanchez now not throwing bombs and avoiding mistakes.
The Jets own the best defense and the best running game which will be a plus against Indy's bad run defense which kept Baltimore to less than 100 yards but an average of 4.6. This was because Baltimore fell behind early by two TDs and they had to throw. So it wasn't really good run defense by the Colts. This will be the key here for New York, not falling too far behind early. If Sanchez has to make big plays they'll fail, but the longer it is close the better are the Jets' chances. And Manning's targets aren't very playoff proven apart from Reggie Wayne who should be covered by Revis and Manning better not throw into his direction.
Nice value for the dog here which I will play at 4.11 or +311 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/20/2009
Free Pick: Kansas City -2.5
Record: 29-42, -8.50
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on Kansas City minus the points against Cleveland.
Kansas ist 3-10, Cleveland 2-11, so two very bad teams mess here. Browns QB Brady Quinn has improved during the season, but last week he went a disastrous 6 for 19 for 90 yards, at least not throwing a pick. Despite this performance Cleveland was able to beat the champs from Pittsburgh because of a great defensive effort including 8 sacks on Big Ben. This was their finale, putting all into that game and post a surprising win. Teams after such efforts usually get flattened the next game. I expect the same here.
Kansas City had 2 home games which they both lost. Today it's their third home game in a row and I'm sure they want to win at least this one against a beatable opponent. Last week the lost 10-16 to Buffalo which they could have easily beaten if Cassel hadn't thrown 4 INTs with no TD and if their kicking game would have done better. I expect them to play much more concentrated today and win this one easily.
I will play on Kansas City -2.5 at 1.893 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/06/2009
Free Pick: Chicago -9.5
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Arizona ML
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/05/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee ML
Record 27-40, -8.36 (1 pending)
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Free Pick: Arizona +7
Record: 27-40, -8.36
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
11/28/2009
Free Pick: Florida State +25
Record: 27-39, -5.36
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
11/15/2009
Free Picks: StLouis +14 and Detroit +17
Record: 26-39, -7.26
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.
First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.
DG
11/07/2009
Free Pick: PSU -5
Record: 26-38, -3.26
Was on vacation, so I couldn't give free picks last 2 weeks. Today I'm back with a nice play on Penn State hosting the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions were the top favorite in the Big Ten along with Ohio State. The only lost to surprisingly good Iowa. Nevertheless I see a big advantage for them here. They average more than 30 PPG, but their Defense is even better allowing less than 10 PPG. They have returning power with top QB Daryl Clark who completed 63.1% of his passes for 2158 yards and 18 TDs against 7 picks. This Offense is great as along with a great passer they also have a great RB in Evan Royster who has run for 859 yards in 8 games so far with 5 TDs and an average gain of almost 6 yards. This is a very tough offense to stop.
Of course the Buckeyes have a good defense, too, allowing about 12PPG, but three times they held opponents to zero which were cupcakes Toledo, New Mexico State and Illinois. So this stat is a bit misleading. Their Offense averages more than 30 PPG as well, but it is a bit one dimensional behind Terelle Pryor who is definitely a great QB but everything is about him. His completion% is average at 54.6 along with 1543 yards and 13 TDs vs 9 INTs. He's also their best runner with 554 yards averaging 5.0 per run. Here he gets a little help from Brandon Saine. In all, they lack help for Pryor as they lost some starters from last year.
So while PSU plays the better defense, the more balanced offense and at home this spread of -5 looks like a present which I will take with 4 units at 1.971 or -103. Good Luck.
DG
Was on vacation, so I couldn't give free picks last 2 weeks. Today I'm back with a nice play on Penn State hosting the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions were the top favorite in the Big Ten along with Ohio State. The only lost to surprisingly good Iowa. Nevertheless I see a big advantage for them here. They average more than 30 PPG, but their Defense is even better allowing less than 10 PPG. They have returning power with top QB Daryl Clark who completed 63.1% of his passes for 2158 yards and 18 TDs against 7 picks. This Offense is great as along with a great passer they also have a great RB in Evan Royster who has run for 859 yards in 8 games so far with 5 TDs and an average gain of almost 6 yards. This is a very tough offense to stop.
Of course the Buckeyes have a good defense, too, allowing about 12PPG, but three times they held opponents to zero which were cupcakes Toledo, New Mexico State and Illinois. So this stat is a bit misleading. Their Offense averages more than 30 PPG as well, but it is a bit one dimensional behind Terelle Pryor who is definitely a great QB but everything is about him. His completion% is average at 54.6 along with 1543 yards and 13 TDs vs 9 INTs. He's also their best runner with 554 yards averaging 5.0 per run. Here he gets a little help from Brandon Saine. In all, they lack help for Pryor as they lost some starters from last year.
So while PSU plays the better defense, the more balanced offense and at home this spread of -5 looks like a present which I will take with 4 units at 1.971 or -103. Good Luck.
DG
10/25/2009
Free Pick: Tampa Bay +14.5
Record: 26-37, -1.26
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick today will be a play on Tampa Bay plus the points.
I cannot give you much reasoning as the Patroits blew away the Titans last week 59-0. They are the much better team with the more talented players. But I do believe, Tampa covers the spread, because since they started Josh Johnson at QB their offense should be better. His numbers are pretty similar to Leftwich's, but he can run the ball which gives the Bucs another dimension on offense.
The Patroits have some problems as Brady and Moss both have shoulder problems. They are probable, so they will definitely play but it could affect them. This high spread is mainly due to New England's performance from last week, they shouldn't be able to repeat that.
This is a game played in London and a road game for both. As Tampa lost everything, New England's only 2 road games so far have both been losses. So don't expect them to win by more than 2 TDs.
We get a perfect spread of 14.5 which means we'll win if New England still wins by two TDs. I will play them on the spread of +14.5 at 1.94 or -106 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/24/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee +14
Record: 25-37, -5.76
Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.
The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.
Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.
If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.
One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!
Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.
DG
Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.
The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.
Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.
If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.
One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!
Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.
DG
10/19/2009
Free Pick: LA Dodgers
Record: 25-36, -2.76
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Crazy game yesterday. Today I will play the Dodgers at Philadelphia.
The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf(11-7, 3.23) who had a good season. In his first playoff appearance he allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings but that was a home game. On the road he has been better all season. His numbers against the Phillies are average at 1-1, 4.42, but he only started 3 times against them. The Phillies send Joe Blanton(12-8, 4.05) whose numbers look well, but at the end of the season he struggled playing very inconsistent. That's why he came from the bullpen in the postseason so far. He allowed 2 runs in 3.2 innings through 2 outings. He is good against LA with 1-0, 2.88, however.
Blanton should be out of sync having played inconsitent at the end of the season, then coming from bullpen and now starting again. I would say LA has the better starter today as well as the better bullpen. So far Philly won by the better starting pitching with Hamels and Lee but today they probably don't have that edge. The Dodgers should be very motivated and concentrated as they were badly blown out yesterday in an 11-0 loss. This is probably their last chance because being down 1-3 should be too much.
With that said I think this series should be more intersting as the ALCS where the Yankees lead 1-0 in game 3 again at the moment, so I'll take the Dodgers at 2.08 or +108 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/18/2009
Free Pick: Philadelphia-13.5
Record: 25-35, -0.76
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick is on Philadelphia that visits the Raiders.
Oakland is really struggling scoring only 49 points in their first 5 games, and 33 of them were in the first two of them. I like McFadden at RB but he is still injured which takes an offensive weapon from them. The defense can't stop anybody as well allowing 130 points so far. Their lone win came against Kansas City which plays their level.
The Eagles on the other hand score at will. They are 3rd in total offense though their running game isn't very good. Their defense is also 4th though they allowed 48 to the Saints in week 2. McNabb is "probable", so he will play and with all those weapons I can't see Oakland being able to compete here.
Should be a blowout win by the Eagles as I take them on the spread at -13.5 at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/17/2009
Free Pick: Illinois-3
Record: 25-34, +1.24
Hi there, today's free pick will be on the Fighting Illini playing against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Illinois faced high expectations before the season returning a lot of talent around QB Juice Williams. They couldn't hold on to it, and now stand at 1-4. They are also 0-3 in the Big10 but look at their opponents: Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, by far the three best Big10 teams from last year.
Today they face a much lesser opponent in Indiana. The Hoosiers started 3-0 in an easy non conference schedule, but since then they have gone 0-3 and are 0-2 in the Big10. They lost against good Ohio State and below average Michigan. Last week the got crushed by Virginia 7-47.
So as we know Illinois is much better than where they stand now, Indiana first has to show it has improved from last year when they had a desaster season. I will go with the experienced crew that has really been tested so far. I will play the spread of -3 at 1.96 or -104 with 2 units. Good Luck
DG
Hi there, today's free pick will be on the Fighting Illini playing against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Illinois faced high expectations before the season returning a lot of talent around QB Juice Williams. They couldn't hold on to it, and now stand at 1-4. They are also 0-3 in the Big10 but look at their opponents: Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, by far the three best Big10 teams from last year.
Today they face a much lesser opponent in Indiana. The Hoosiers started 3-0 in an easy non conference schedule, but since then they have gone 0-3 and are 0-2 in the Big10. They lost against good Ohio State and below average Michigan. Last week the got crushed by Virginia 7-47.
So as we know Illinois is much better than where they stand now, Indiana first has to show it has improved from last year when they had a desaster season. I will go with the experienced crew that has really been tested so far. I will play the spread of -3 at 1.96 or -104 with 2 units. Good Luck
DG
10/11/2009
Free Pick: Seattle-1
Record: 24-34, -0.86
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
My free pick for today is a play on Seattle. I know I recommended them two times this season, but I'm not a Seahawks fan (I like the Eagles).
Today Seattle will badly need to win, all week long they talked about that game that could turn the season around and get back on track. They seem to be very focused on that one. And, Hasselbeck should be back from his injury. Although Seneca Wallace replaced him well, many Seattle players prefer Hasselbeck because he's also an emotional leader. Seattle lost 3 straight, but with Hasselbeck back and here at home where they are usually especially strong, they are my team today.
Jacksonville won both of its last two and is at 2-2 now. But the long trip to Seattle is another heavy point for my analysis. You may be surprised that the Jaguars are much better passing than rushing this year, and it may be dangerous as the Seahawks are good against the rush but bad against the pass.
Nevertheless I think they should take the lead early and then strengthen their secondary. I'm sure Seattle will find the right balance to stop the Jacksonville offense.
I will give them a shot at the spread of -1 at 2.05 or +105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/09/2009
Free Pick: Miami(Ohio) +18.5
Record: 23-34, -4.66
Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.
Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.
Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.
So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.
Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.
Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.
So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.
DG
10/06/2009
Intermission
Record: 23-33, -2.66
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
Not good so far. The next few days and weeks we will have fewer picks because we have football only at the weekends and baseball with limited games as postseason starts. Basketball will start in late october, then you will get nearly a pick per day again. I don't know anything abaout NHL so I will leave it out. Summary so far:
If you followed my baseball picks only you would have bet 82 unit and gone 15-26 with a loss of 10.95.
If you followed my NFL picks you'd have bet 26 units for 4-6 and minus 4.06 units.
If you followed my College Football picks you'd have gone 4-1 betting 13 units for a profit of 12.35.
So college football was a good plus while baseball was really bad. NFL will go to the plus side, I'm sure with that.
Stay tuned. Yours,
Doctor Gonzo
10/04/2009
Play on Kansas City +9 and ML
Record: 23-31, -0.68
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
Today I will play on Kansas City hosting the New York Giants. The Chiefs get a lot of points here. They are the worse team for sure and the Giants are rock solid in their offensive play, but several things make me play on Kansas here.
One, we have the Giants winning all their 3 games straight up and ATS while Kansas lost all three SU and ATS. That streak shouldn't go on for both teams. Kansas ain't that bad, they were competitive nearly all the time.
Second, Kansas played very good opposition the first 3 weeks. In Baltimore they should have covered, I had them at +13.5 and was very angry on the last second TD which wasn't necessary. Well they haven't covered so this play gets much stronger.
Third, the Giants play their third straight road game. They traveled to Dallas, to Tampa and now they go to Kansas City. Very tough schedule if you ask me and I wouldn't be surprised if they give away this one or if they would be happy to get away with a 3 point win or so.
I will play 2 units on the +9 spread on KC at 1.87 or -115 and additionally a unit on the ML at 4.25 or +325. Good Luck.
DG
(edit: changed the odds, original ones were wrong)
10/03/2009
Play on Northwestern ML
Record: 22-31, -6.14
Today I will play on the Northwestern Wildcats who visit the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue runs the ball well behind RB Bolden, but the passing game was too inconsitent so far. QB Joey Elliot only completed 60.1 % of his passes with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Their Defense is not very competitive, especially against the run.
Northwestern is always tough to beat and they were nice over the last seasons. QB Mike Kafka showed that he can throw this year with 72.2 % completions, 5 TDs vs 3 INTs and over 1000 yards passing. He is also a great runner but hasn't showed it so far this season. Today he can against one of the weaker run defenses of Purdue. They could miss top RB Simmons again here, so Kafka should run today. But they still have some other runners who can carry the ball over the field.
Expect a nice game from Northwestern who has a decent shot at a win here, I will take them on the Money Line at 3.73 or +273 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Northwestern Wildcats who visit the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue runs the ball well behind RB Bolden, but the passing game was too inconsitent so far. QB Joey Elliot only completed 60.1 % of his passes with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Their Defense is not very competitive, especially against the run.
Northwestern is always tough to beat and they were nice over the last seasons. QB Mike Kafka showed that he can throw this year with 72.2 % completions, 5 TDs vs 3 INTs and over 1000 yards passing. He is also a great runner but hasn't showed it so far this season. Today he can against one of the weaker run defenses of Purdue. They could miss top RB Simmons again here, so Kafka should run today. But they still have some other runners who can carry the ball over the field.
Expect a nice game from Northwestern who has a decent shot at a win here, I will take them on the Money Line at 3.73 or +273 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
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