Record: 16-23, +1.87
Today's play will be on Washington plus the points against USC.
Washington won last week, so they have one more win than at the end of last season. After this desastrous 0-12 season they seem well improved this year. Their defense is nice but they mostly profit from junior QB Jake Locker who is a very good passer(5TDs vs 1 INT) and a great runner. He ran for 51 vs LSU and 18 vs Idaho where he didn't need to run a lot as it was a pretty easy win for the Huskies. After covering easily against highly favored LSU in a 23-31 loss, they won against Idaho by 42-23. It was their first win after 15 losses, so they should have lost this heavy load. Today they are big underdogs again, but still at home as in the first two games. Nice chance to show up again.
USC have won both games so far. They blew away San Diego State 56-3 but trailed 0-3 after the first quarter. Second game was a huge win against Ohio State which was an important win for their hopes of an National Title game. They were very lucky, however, scoring the winning TD with 1:05 left in the fourth. They didn't cover that one, but they don't care. Freshman QB Barkley who got the starting job did well in that last drive, but overall he put up only average numbers with 1 TD and 1 INT in those two games.
Some nice aspects made me play that game: wen see Washington having played at home all the time while USC had to travel far last week and now goes on to play its second road game in a row. Their last game was a very big one and they won so this could be a letdown spot for them. Then we saw them playing a highly emotional game last week that strengthens the letdown spot. And we have a revenge situation here as Washington was badly blown out and held scoreless last year at USC.
Very nice facts for a cover by the home team. I'll play them by the spread of +19.5 at 1.98 or -102 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/19/2009
9/18/2009
Play on Toronto
Record: 16-22, +2.87
For tonight I found only one game worth playing which is on the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters in James Shields(9-11, 4.03) who couldn't repeat last season numbers when he was one of the main reasons of the Rays' run to the World Series. However his ERA is not that much worse than last year, but the whole team is too inconsistent. Shield had a good ERA of 3.42 in mid season, gut has lowered it since then, especially in hs last few starts. In his last outing in Boston he was ok (3ERs in 6 innings), but still got the loss there. During his last 10, however, he was far too inconsistent to play him here. Toronto will send Scott Richmond(6-9, 5.03) to the mound who is actually worse than Shields, in his last four starts he allowed 5 or 6 runs in each one of them. But look at his opponents: in his last six he played against the Yankees, the Angels, Boston, Texas, Minnesota and Detroit which are all contenders for playoff spots or better. So he has really been tested during that span.
Tonight he will play against a Rays team that quit playing since their postseason dreams have gone. They lost 11 in a row and then went 2-2 at Baltimore, by far the worst team in the AL East. Toronto's season is over, too, they will post a losing record, but they still want to prove something as it seems. They split each of their last 4 series though they played tough competition, all playoff contenders: Yankees(twice), Minnesota and Detroit. One last point here: if you compare home/road play, you will find a big edge for Tampa Bay, but they play on turf which gives them an advantage against almost all teams. The only other teams playing on turf are Minnesota and -yes- Toronto. So part of that records come from turf play which is egalized here. That also translates on Richmond who is a run better at home(on turf). Should be good for him, too.
All this makes me play Toronto at nice dog odds of 2.67 or +167 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
For tonight I found only one game worth playing which is on the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters in James Shields(9-11, 4.03) who couldn't repeat last season numbers when he was one of the main reasons of the Rays' run to the World Series. However his ERA is not that much worse than last year, but the whole team is too inconsistent. Shield had a good ERA of 3.42 in mid season, gut has lowered it since then, especially in hs last few starts. In his last outing in Boston he was ok (3ERs in 6 innings), but still got the loss there. During his last 10, however, he was far too inconsistent to play him here. Toronto will send Scott Richmond(6-9, 5.03) to the mound who is actually worse than Shields, in his last four starts he allowed 5 or 6 runs in each one of them. But look at his opponents: in his last six he played against the Yankees, the Angels, Boston, Texas, Minnesota and Detroit which are all contenders for playoff spots or better. So he has really been tested during that span.
Tonight he will play against a Rays team that quit playing since their postseason dreams have gone. They lost 11 in a row and then went 2-2 at Baltimore, by far the worst team in the AL East. Toronto's season is over, too, they will post a losing record, but they still want to prove something as it seems. They split each of their last 4 series though they played tough competition, all playoff contenders: Yankees(twice), Minnesota and Detroit. One last point here: if you compare home/road play, you will find a big edge for Tampa Bay, but they play on turf which gives them an advantage against almost all teams. The only other teams playing on turf are Minnesota and -yes- Toronto. So part of that records come from turf play which is egalized here. That also translates on Richmond who is a run better at home(on turf). Should be good for him, too.
All this makes me play Toronto at nice dog odds of 2.67 or +167 with 1 unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/17/2009
Play on Kansas City
Record: 15-22, +0.91
Today we get Greinke as a dog which is always worth a play. KC's season is a mess while Detroit fights for first place in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.19) opposes Edwin Jackson(12-6, 3.22) who has good numbers, too, but if you look at his last few starts he struggled worsening his ERA from 2.62 at the beginning of August to 3.22 now. Only once he allowed 2 ERs since then, in his other outings it was more. In his last one against Kansas he pitched six innings and collected 3 ERs on 9 hits and two walks which fits into his career stats vs KC. 3 runs along with one or two against the bullpen should be enough for KC to win this one. Greinke always has to pitch great to get wins, but he does so constantly. In his last three he combined for 24 innings with only one ER, 13 hits and 3 walks. Great numbers for him.
With that said Kansas City should be the play tonight at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today we get Greinke as a dog which is always worth a play. KC's season is a mess while Detroit fights for first place in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.19) opposes Edwin Jackson(12-6, 3.22) who has good numbers, too, but if you look at his last few starts he struggled worsening his ERA from 2.62 at the beginning of August to 3.22 now. Only once he allowed 2 ERs since then, in his other outings it was more. In his last one against Kansas he pitched six innings and collected 3 ERs on 9 hits and two walks which fits into his career stats vs KC. 3 runs along with one or two against the bullpen should be enough for KC to win this one. Greinke always has to pitch great to get wins, but he does so constantly. In his last three he combined for 24 innings with only one ER, 13 hits and 3 walks. Great numbers for him.
With that said Kansas City should be the play tonight at 1.98 or -102 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/16/2009
Play on Oakland/Texas over 10
Record: 15-21, +1.91
Difficult board tonight. Oddsmakers made some good numbers for tonight as I think. Only possible pick tonight is on the over in the Oakland/Texas game in my eyes.
We saw two blowout wins by Oakland in the first two games of this series. Oakland's offense really hit well. Texas on the other hand badly needs wins to keep hopes for the postseason alive. They didn't show the last two days. But I believe they will come back tonight scoring a lot of runs. They scored only one in the first two games, but that's not Texas. They can hit and they will do so tonight.
They will face Oakland's Trevor Cahill(8-12, 4.74) who had some nice outings in August but his numbers went down steadily in his two September starts where he combined for 8 innings allowing 6ERs, 11 hits and 4 walks. He's okay against Texas at 1-1, 4.15 ERA, but those two games were in Oakland which is a great pitcher park as today he has to play in hitter park in Arlington. Texas goes with Dustin Nippert(5-2, 3.95) who has nice numbers but his status as a starter is always in doubt, probably because he doesn't eat many innings. Sometimes he is a starter, sometimes a reliever. On September 12th against Seattle he came from bullpen and allowed 2ERs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. He pitched 20.1 innings against Oakland allowing only 5 ERs,but again we see those numbers coming from games in Oakland where he pitched 14 innings with 1 ER. Surprisingly he is better at home this year, but I wouldn't count on that tonight against the rising Oakland offense. Both bullpens had to work a lot yesterday which will be good for the pick, too.
Looks like a high scoring affair tonight, but as I'm not very successful in picking totals, I will play the over 10 at 2.14 or +114 with only a unit. Good Luck.
DG
Difficult board tonight. Oddsmakers made some good numbers for tonight as I think. Only possible pick tonight is on the over in the Oakland/Texas game in my eyes.
We saw two blowout wins by Oakland in the first two games of this series. Oakland's offense really hit well. Texas on the other hand badly needs wins to keep hopes for the postseason alive. They didn't show the last two days. But I believe they will come back tonight scoring a lot of runs. They scored only one in the first two games, but that's not Texas. They can hit and they will do so tonight.
They will face Oakland's Trevor Cahill(8-12, 4.74) who had some nice outings in August but his numbers went down steadily in his two September starts where he combined for 8 innings allowing 6ERs, 11 hits and 4 walks. He's okay against Texas at 1-1, 4.15 ERA, but those two games were in Oakland which is a great pitcher park as today he has to play in hitter park in Arlington. Texas goes with Dustin Nippert(5-2, 3.95) who has nice numbers but his status as a starter is always in doubt, probably because he doesn't eat many innings. Sometimes he is a starter, sometimes a reliever. On September 12th against Seattle he came from bullpen and allowed 2ERs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. He pitched 20.1 innings against Oakland allowing only 5 ERs,but again we see those numbers coming from games in Oakland where he pitched 14 innings with 1 ER. Surprisingly he is better at home this year, but I wouldn't count on that tonight against the rising Oakland offense. Both bullpens had to work a lot yesterday which will be good for the pick, too.
Looks like a high scoring affair tonight, but as I'm not very successful in picking totals, I will play the over 10 at 2.14 or +114 with only a unit. Good Luck.
DG
9/15/2009
Play on San Francisco
Record: 13-21, -3.85
Second pick tonight will be on the Giants hosting Colorado. This is a nice matchup as San Francisco won the series opener yesterday and should be eager to cut down Colorado's lead for the wild card spot. We also see the Giants as one of the best home teams in the league at 47-25. Here, they are also 6-1 for the season against the Rockies. After struggling lately(lost 7 of their last 11) the Giants came back with two wins in a row where they scored really well, so the offense seems to be on a roll. On the other side we see Colorado going the opposite direction. They won 10 of 11 but lost their last three by a combined score of 6-19. So their offense seems to have taken a break right now. Their road record isn't bad at 37-36, but nothing special.
The Giants go with Barry Zito(9-12, 3.99) who has played a nice season so far. In his last few starts his numbers went down a bit but today he plays Colorado against whom he is 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA in his career. He even more liked them this year allowing only one ER in 21 innings. Colorado sends its ace Ubaldo Jimenez(13-10, 3.32) who played great, too, but his last start against Cincinnati was only average. Similar story as with Zito. The final point that convinced me playing SF here was that Jimenez had a sore hamstring. As this is a leg injury it may not affect him too much, but it is/was still an injury. And it made him to stay out two days ago which should have been his regular start, so even if the injury doesn't affect him at all he may still be a bit out of rhythm as his last start was 8 days before instead of six.
With all this said I would have expected even odds and as we see San Francisco as a dog with odds of 2.32 or +132 I will play them with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick tonight will be on the Giants hosting Colorado. This is a nice matchup as San Francisco won the series opener yesterday and should be eager to cut down Colorado's lead for the wild card spot. We also see the Giants as one of the best home teams in the league at 47-25. Here, they are also 6-1 for the season against the Rockies. After struggling lately(lost 7 of their last 11) the Giants came back with two wins in a row where they scored really well, so the offense seems to be on a roll. On the other side we see Colorado going the opposite direction. They won 10 of 11 but lost their last three by a combined score of 6-19. So their offense seems to have taken a break right now. Their road record isn't bad at 37-36, but nothing special.
The Giants go with Barry Zito(9-12, 3.99) who has played a nice season so far. In his last few starts his numbers went down a bit but today he plays Colorado against whom he is 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA in his career. He even more liked them this year allowing only one ER in 21 innings. Colorado sends its ace Ubaldo Jimenez(13-10, 3.32) who played great, too, but his last start against Cincinnati was only average. Similar story as with Zito. The final point that convinced me playing SF here was that Jimenez had a sore hamstring. As this is a leg injury it may not affect him too much, but it is/was still an injury. And it made him to stay out two days ago which should have been his regular start, so even if the injury doesn't affect him at all he may still be a bit out of rhythm as his last start was 8 days before instead of six.
With all this said I would have expected even odds and as we see San Francisco as a dog with odds of 2.32 or +132 I will play them with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Toronto RL
Record: 13-21, -3.85
First game tonight will be on Toronto visiting the Yankees. Toronto lost 20 of 28 during August and the beginning of September, but since then they have gone a nice 6-5. In their last five they averaged almost 5 runs which is pretty nice and should be more than enough today. New York is at top of the league and they will very probably have the best record heading into postseason giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They had a nice run winning 12 of 14, but they split their last four. Looks like it's time to sit back and peak when playoffs start. There's no value in winning 110 games and then lose in the first round.
Of course they still need some wins to secure first place, but today they face Roy Halladay(14-9, 3.03) who shuts them down frequently. He is 17-6 against them with a 2.83 ERA and also pitched seven complete games against them(5 in his last 9). His ERA went up a bit in his last ten starts, but don't forget the teams he pitched during those 10: Yankees twice, Red Sox twice and Tampa Bay even three times, all of them with potent offenses. He even had 4 complete games in that span. Don't expect too many Yankees runs. His opponent will be Sergio Mitre(3-2, 7.02) who has a winning record despite this ERA. The reasons are: the Yankees offense that gives him a lot of run support, and the fact that he sometimes pitches well, but the he sucks the next game. One of the teams he really doesn't like is Toronto. On September 6th he played the and allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks in just 4.1 innings. He played 3 of hs nine games this season against Toronto and the other two were better(how could they be worse!), but still far from good. And for the run support: the Yankees averaged 8.11 runs in Mitre's starts, that's why he is still 3-2. But no question: New York can't do that to Halladay.
With all those facts I believe Toronto will win by more than only one run, not only because of Mitre but the Yankee defense creates some errors at times, too. They usually egalize this by great hitting, but not today. Toronto on the run line at 2.56 or +156 with 2 units is the choice. Good Luck.
DG
First game tonight will be on Toronto visiting the Yankees. Toronto lost 20 of 28 during August and the beginning of September, but since then they have gone a nice 6-5. In their last five they averaged almost 5 runs which is pretty nice and should be more than enough today. New York is at top of the league and they will very probably have the best record heading into postseason giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They had a nice run winning 12 of 14, but they split their last four. Looks like it's time to sit back and peak when playoffs start. There's no value in winning 110 games and then lose in the first round.
Of course they still need some wins to secure first place, but today they face Roy Halladay(14-9, 3.03) who shuts them down frequently. He is 17-6 against them with a 2.83 ERA and also pitched seven complete games against them(5 in his last 9). His ERA went up a bit in his last ten starts, but don't forget the teams he pitched during those 10: Yankees twice, Red Sox twice and Tampa Bay even three times, all of them with potent offenses. He even had 4 complete games in that span. Don't expect too many Yankees runs. His opponent will be Sergio Mitre(3-2, 7.02) who has a winning record despite this ERA. The reasons are: the Yankees offense that gives him a lot of run support, and the fact that he sometimes pitches well, but the he sucks the next game. One of the teams he really doesn't like is Toronto. On September 6th he played the and allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks in just 4.1 innings. He played 3 of hs nine games this season against Toronto and the other two were better(how could they be worse!), but still far from good. And for the run support: the Yankees averaged 8.11 runs in Mitre's starts, that's why he is still 3-2. But no question: New York can't do that to Halladay.
With all those facts I believe Toronto will win by more than only one run, not only because of Mitre but the Yankee defense creates some errors at times, too. They usually egalize this by great hitting, but not today. Toronto on the run line at 2.56 or +156 with 2 units is the choice. Good Luck.
DG
9/14/2009
Play on Texas RL
Record: 12-20, -2.67
Second one for tonight will be on the Rangers hosting Oakland. This pick is even stronger than the first one so the stake will be a unit higher.
We see Texas going with Scott Feldman(16-4, 3.46) who's played a big season so far. His ERA at home is 1.1 higher than his overall ERA but that shouldn't be a problem as Rangers ballpark is one of the best hitters parks in the league. Feldman is also in great form as he won his last four games allowing only a run in more than 26 innings of work. He should be very motivated to keep this run going as he still has a shot to achieve the most wins among all MLB pitchers. He's also very good against Oakland at 3-2 and a 3.73 ERA. The Texas team played a great season as well and will be very motivated here, too. They do need wins, especially at home against bad teams like Oakland, because despite this great season they are trailing the Angels by six and the Red Sox by 4(wild card spot). We have a similar situation as with the Dodgers game as they have a weak opponent in the A's while LA play the Yankees tonight and then goes on for the series at Boston, so Texas can cut down their leads if they win 2 of the 3 at the very least against Oakland. They also have two series against the Angels later this month so chances are good for them.
Oakland sends Brett Tomko(4-3, 4.47) who came from the Yankees some weeks ago and started five games for the A's. His performance for the A's was pretty well with a 3.90 ERA. But this will be the first time he plays in a hitter park and if you look at his career stats against the Rangers you see him going 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA. So if you worry about Feldman's home ERA(of 4.56), look at Tomko's numbers in Rangers ballpark where he allows more than a run per inning. The A's have nothing to play for at 64-78 with ten wins behind third place Seattle. Teams that have nothing to play for don't win much on the road. Sometimes they play good at home in front of their fans, but they don't care much about road games.
Look for Texas to win this one big and take the 1.93 or -107 on the run line with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second one for tonight will be on the Rangers hosting Oakland. This pick is even stronger than the first one so the stake will be a unit higher.
We see Texas going with Scott Feldman(16-4, 3.46) who's played a big season so far. His ERA at home is 1.1 higher than his overall ERA but that shouldn't be a problem as Rangers ballpark is one of the best hitters parks in the league. Feldman is also in great form as he won his last four games allowing only a run in more than 26 innings of work. He should be very motivated to keep this run going as he still has a shot to achieve the most wins among all MLB pitchers. He's also very good against Oakland at 3-2 and a 3.73 ERA. The Texas team played a great season as well and will be very motivated here, too. They do need wins, especially at home against bad teams like Oakland, because despite this great season they are trailing the Angels by six and the Red Sox by 4(wild card spot). We have a similar situation as with the Dodgers game as they have a weak opponent in the A's while LA play the Yankees tonight and then goes on for the series at Boston, so Texas can cut down their leads if they win 2 of the 3 at the very least against Oakland. They also have two series against the Angels later this month so chances are good for them.
Oakland sends Brett Tomko(4-3, 4.47) who came from the Yankees some weeks ago and started five games for the A's. His performance for the A's was pretty well with a 3.90 ERA. But this will be the first time he plays in a hitter park and if you look at his career stats against the Rangers you see him going 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA. So if you worry about Feldman's home ERA(of 4.56), look at Tomko's numbers in Rangers ballpark where he allows more than a run per inning. The A's have nothing to play for at 64-78 with ten wins behind third place Seattle. Teams that have nothing to play for don't win much on the road. Sometimes they play good at home in front of their fans, but they don't care much about road games.
Look for Texas to win this one big and take the 1.93 or -107 on the run line with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on LA Dodgers RL
Record: 12-20, -2.67
Toaday's first play will be on the Dodgers who host the Pirates.
Pittsburgh will go with Daniel McCutchen(0-1, 4.85) opposing Dodger Jon Garland(9-11, 4.23) who came over from Arizona. Garland has had two starts with LA so far which both were well, ironically both were against his former team. For the Dodgers he is 1-0, 3.46 in those two games. Playing here in this big park should improve his numbers. His numbers against Pittsburgh are below average but he's had only 2 games (1 start) against them. McCutchen started his MLB career two weeks ago and had two average outings against Cincinnati and the Cubs.
Tonight, however, McCutchen has to play one of the best offenses in the NL, and LA has been tested lately against San Francisco who own one of the best pitching staffs in the league. They should have no problems to score some runs against the rookie. Plus, LA should be motivated here. They played contending San Francisco over the weekend which could point to a letdown situation, but actually it shouldn't be one as they lost yesterday and in this series against the Pirates they could make a big step towards the division title or the playoffs respectively as their biggest rivals Rockies and Giants play each other the next few days. So this is a big chance for them to get away from them. Pittsburgh's season is over as they will have a losing season and their only goal is to avoid the 100 losses mark. I wrote they will collect some road wins in their last few games, but now it seems they are just looking for some home wins to not lose 100 in the end. They will have some shots at home with remaining series against the Padres and the Reds. They also got a rare road win yesterday, so two in a row seems improbable with their road record of 19-52.
All that makes me play the much better team here in a good situation to win by two or more. I will play the run line at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Toaday's first play will be on the Dodgers who host the Pirates.
Pittsburgh will go with Daniel McCutchen(0-1, 4.85) opposing Dodger Jon Garland(9-11, 4.23) who came over from Arizona. Garland has had two starts with LA so far which both were well, ironically both were against his former team. For the Dodgers he is 1-0, 3.46 in those two games. Playing here in this big park should improve his numbers. His numbers against Pittsburgh are below average but he's had only 2 games (1 start) against them. McCutchen started his MLB career two weeks ago and had two average outings against Cincinnati and the Cubs.
Tonight, however, McCutchen has to play one of the best offenses in the NL, and LA has been tested lately against San Francisco who own one of the best pitching staffs in the league. They should have no problems to score some runs against the rookie. Plus, LA should be motivated here. They played contending San Francisco over the weekend which could point to a letdown situation, but actually it shouldn't be one as they lost yesterday and in this series against the Pirates they could make a big step towards the division title or the playoffs respectively as their biggest rivals Rockies and Giants play each other the next few days. So this is a big chance for them to get away from them. Pittsburgh's season is over as they will have a losing season and their only goal is to avoid the 100 losses mark. I wrote they will collect some road wins in their last few games, but now it seems they are just looking for some home wins to not lose 100 in the end. They will have some shots at home with remaining series against the Padres and the Reds. They also got a rare road win yesterday, so two in a row seems improbable with their road record of 19-52.
All that makes me play the much better team here in a good situation to win by two or more. I will play the run line at 1.91 or -109 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/13/2009
Play on Green Bay -4.5
Record: 11-19, -3.52 (one pending)
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Second pick for tonight will be on Green Bay minus the points. In my opinion the Packers are the favorites to win the division since Minnesota signed Brett Favre.
Chicago struggled on Defense last year as it ranked only 21st and even 30th against the pass. However they didn't do much in offseason to improve on it. They did try to improve their Offense by acquiring QB Jay Cutler who is a very good one, for sure. Behind him we have a very potent RB in Matt Forte. But that's it. If you have a great passer you need good Receivers, too. The Bears have got nice Receivers, but not great ones. And if a new QB comes over he needs some time with the team to fully integrate into the Offense.
Green Bay's Defense wasn't good last year as well, but they upgraded some positions and stole Defensive Coordinator Capers from New England. This should be a good mix to improve on that side of the field. On the Offense they have a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers who played well last year and should be even better if RB Ryan Grant gets back to his level from 2 years ago. Remember, Green Bay was 6-10 last year, but they were competitive in all games as they lost 7 games by 4 or less points.
With that said I'm sure Green Bay will win its home opener by more than X points, so I will play the spread of -4.5 on them at 1.95 or -105 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Play on Kansas City +13
Record: 11-19, -3.52
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.
The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.
The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.
I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
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