Record: 2-6, -6.82
Today we see the second game of the Giants/Mets series. Yesterday the Mets won 3-0 and that’s about the result I expect tonight too.
First we have two great pitchers on the mound as Johan Santana(13-8, 3.00) faces Matt Cain(12-4, 2.44). When you look at the last few starts of these two pitchers you might argue that Cain had two bad starts lately, but don’t forget on the one hand he averaged 8 innings during his last three and on the other hand the 9 ERs he allowed in his last two starts look worse than they are as he allowed 15 hits and 2 walks in 15 innings which is actually better than his WHIP over the season. And, on the road he is almost as sharp as in home games. For Santana it is almost the same story. In what seemed to be a bad start vs St Louis with five ERs, he allowed 9 hits and no walk in 8 innings, which is again better than his season WHIP. And at home he is almost a run better than on the road. So we have two starters who should do a fine job. Also, Thursday both teams had a day rest while yesterday both bullpens didn’t have too much work.
Second we have two offenses that aren’t able to hit. The Mets still have lots of injury trouble although they averaged 4 runs over their last five which is ok, but not great. The Giants win and lose with their pitching staff anyway. Their offense doesn’t play a big role as it is usually enough to win if they score 4 runs. However in their last five they averaged less than two runs which is really bad.
So we have two bad offenses facing two great pitchers. I don’t believe we see a lot of runs tonight. I play on the under 7 at 1.96 or -104 with 2 units.
Second matchup will be the Yankees facing the Mariners. Seattle sends rookie Luke French(2-2, 4.31) opposing Yankee Sergio Mitre(1-1, 7.04). French has pretty good overall numbers for a rookie, but those numbers got worse, especially since he is a Mariner. He allows way too many walks. And you know he faces a potent Yankee offense that averaged 6 runs over its last five games. French played against the Yankees when he was a Tiger and he was very good then, but don’t think he can do this again. And the Yankees offenses prefers hitting lefties.
Mitre, who starts for NY played for Florida till 07, but as a Yankee in 09 he is really bad. His ERA of more than seven matches with a WHIP of 1.91. He also averages only less than five innings and never reached the six inning mark this season, and never allowed less than 3 ERs. Even the lately bad Seattle offense should get him in trouble tonight. In their last four games the Mariners scored a combined five runs but look who the faced: Pettitte, Sabathia, Buehrle and Danks which are all at least good pitchers. Now they go down in competition against a bad Mitre.
Should be a high scoring affair tonight and I take the over 9.5 at 2.07 with 2 units.
Good Luck
8/14/2009
Play on Cincinnati RL
Record: 2-5, -5.82
Today I play on the Cincinnati Reds. They are back home after a road trip to San Francisco and St Louis, two teams with good pitching staffs, so their offense should be happy to see some worse pitchers the next few days as we've already seen yesterday in a 7-0 win. Washington came over from Atlanta where they lost both games of a two game series. Yesterday they were shut out and the two-hitter by Arroyo gave the Reds bullpen some rest too.
The Reds send Aaron Harang(6-13, 4.43) against Washington's Garrett Mock(1-4, 6.14). Mock was a relief pitcher for most of the season, but has started 5 games now. His last outing was his best one where he got his lone win on the season, but this was at home in pitcher friendly ballpark against an average Arizona Offense. Now he has to pitch in a much mor difficult place. Harang for the Reds may be 6-13, but he pitched much better than this record suggests. Too often he got no run support but this should change today as the Reds face one of the worst pitching staffs. Also, Harang is 0-1 in 4 starts against the Nationals although his ERA of 4.43 ain't bad.
I will play on another big win for Cincinnati tonight and play them on the run line at 2.31 or +131 for 1 unit.
Today I play on the Cincinnati Reds. They are back home after a road trip to San Francisco and St Louis, two teams with good pitching staffs, so their offense should be happy to see some worse pitchers the next few days as we've already seen yesterday in a 7-0 win. Washington came over from Atlanta where they lost both games of a two game series. Yesterday they were shut out and the two-hitter by Arroyo gave the Reds bullpen some rest too.
The Reds send Aaron Harang(6-13, 4.43) against Washington's Garrett Mock(1-4, 6.14). Mock was a relief pitcher for most of the season, but has started 5 games now. His last outing was his best one where he got his lone win on the season, but this was at home in pitcher friendly ballpark against an average Arizona Offense. Now he has to pitch in a much mor difficult place. Harang for the Reds may be 6-13, but he pitched much better than this record suggests. Too often he got no run support but this should change today as the Reds face one of the worst pitching staffs. Also, Harang is 0-1 in 4 starts against the Nationals although his ERA of 4.43 ain't bad.
I will play on another big win for Cincinnati tonight and play them on the run line at 2.31 or +131 for 1 unit.
8/11/2009
Play on Toronto (3.55, +255)
Record: 2-4, - 4.82 units
Finally two winners yesterday. Today shortly just one pick for one unit. Of course the Yankees are always the public bet and they are the faves here. But those odds are just ridiculous. Look at the starting pitchers:
We have Yankee Joba Chamberlain(8-2, 3.73) and Scott Richmond (6-6, 3.97) for Toronto. The ERA numbers are not so far away from each other. But Joba often gets much more run support by the potent Yankee offense. Both pitchers are pretty good over the season and both had a bad outing in their last start. So we should have pretty even odds so far. Of course the Yankees have great offensive firepower and they play at home, so they get the edge here. But on the other hand, New York's win streak has come to an end yesterday against this Jays sqad and often teams that were very focused in a series (and NY was against long time rival Boston), give us bettors a letdown situation in the next few games. We saw that yesterday, and we could very well see it again tonight.
So I will put 1 unit on Torono tonight at 3.55 or +255.
Good Luck
Finally two winners yesterday. Today shortly just one pick for one unit. Of course the Yankees are always the public bet and they are the faves here. But those odds are just ridiculous. Look at the starting pitchers:
We have Yankee Joba Chamberlain(8-2, 3.73) and Scott Richmond (6-6, 3.97) for Toronto. The ERA numbers are not so far away from each other. But Joba often gets much more run support by the potent Yankee offense. Both pitchers are pretty good over the season and both had a bad outing in their last start. So we should have pretty even odds so far. Of course the Yankees have great offensive firepower and they play at home, so they get the edge here. But on the other hand, New York's win streak has come to an end yesterday against this Jays sqad and often teams that were very focused in a series (and NY was against long time rival Boston), give us bettors a letdown situation in the next few games. We saw that yesterday, and we could very well see it again tonight.
So I will put 1 unit on Torono tonight at 3.55 or +255.
Good Luck
8/10/2009
Play on Seattle (2.15, +115), Boston (1.94, -106) and San Francisco (2.07, +107)
Record: 0-3, -6.00 units
After a break on holidays I'm back to post some winners now. First will be on Seattle that hosts the White Sox. Looks like a win for Chicago as they send Gavin Floyd (9-6, 3.91) against new Mariner Luke French (2-2, 3.93) who came over from Detroit.
But if you look deeper into the game, you see French probably motivated because he makes his home debut tonight and his 3.93 ERA is still good. You can also see Floyd playing very good lately, but against Seattle he is 1-2 with a 7.15 ERA. And, Seattle could wait at home for the White Sox coming the long way from Chicago. Nice underdog bet here, I put 2 units on this one at 2.15 or +115.
Next one will be on Boston against Detroit. Boston lost its last 6 while the Tigers won 4 of their last five. But those losses of Boston came on a road trip and they played the Yankees while Detroit was at home against an average Twins Team. The pitching matchup favors the Tigers with Edwin Jackson (8-5, 2.62) who pitches great on a consitent basis but doesn't get much run support (only 3.7 over his last 10 starts). He opposes Brad Penny(7-6, 5.20) who was bad lately although his last start in Tampa wasn't so bad as the numbers suggest. In head to head both pitchers aren't good.
I will go on the Sox here despite the pitching matchup, because they are finally at home now, and they have to make up for the losses against their rivals, and they need to win to keep at least the wild card spot for now, and they step down in competition from a great Yankees team right now, and Detroit steps down from an average Twins team. So I will put again 2 units on them at 1.94 or -106.
Third and last one tonight will be on the Giants hosting the Dodgers. SF has been a bit better lately than the Dodgers. And they need to win as the Rockies are very close now. LA goes with Hiroki Kuroda (4-5, 4.44) opposing Giant Jonathan Sanchez (5-9, 4.49). Kuroda has been fine lately going six Innings in all of his last 3 starts allowing 2, 2 and 3 ERs. But he is still winless against San Francisco in 4 starts. Sanchez on the other side is also winless against the Dodgers in five starts but his numbers improved over his last two starts so he could have a good day. Also Sanchez is much better at home where his number radically improve to 4-1 along with a 3.26 ERA. Enough for me to put 3 units on a more focused Giant team at 2.07 or +107.
Good Luck.
After a break on holidays I'm back to post some winners now. First will be on Seattle that hosts the White Sox. Looks like a win for Chicago as they send Gavin Floyd (9-6, 3.91) against new Mariner Luke French (2-2, 3.93) who came over from Detroit.
But if you look deeper into the game, you see French probably motivated because he makes his home debut tonight and his 3.93 ERA is still good. You can also see Floyd playing very good lately, but against Seattle he is 1-2 with a 7.15 ERA. And, Seattle could wait at home for the White Sox coming the long way from Chicago. Nice underdog bet here, I put 2 units on this one at 2.15 or +115.
Next one will be on Boston against Detroit. Boston lost its last 6 while the Tigers won 4 of their last five. But those losses of Boston came on a road trip and they played the Yankees while Detroit was at home against an average Twins Team. The pitching matchup favors the Tigers with Edwin Jackson (8-5, 2.62) who pitches great on a consitent basis but doesn't get much run support (only 3.7 over his last 10 starts). He opposes Brad Penny(7-6, 5.20) who was bad lately although his last start in Tampa wasn't so bad as the numbers suggest. In head to head both pitchers aren't good.
I will go on the Sox here despite the pitching matchup, because they are finally at home now, and they have to make up for the losses against their rivals, and they need to win to keep at least the wild card spot for now, and they step down in competition from a great Yankees team right now, and Detroit steps down from an average Twins team. So I will put again 2 units on them at 1.94 or -106.
Third and last one tonight will be on the Giants hosting the Dodgers. SF has been a bit better lately than the Dodgers. And they need to win as the Rockies are very close now. LA goes with Hiroki Kuroda (4-5, 4.44) opposing Giant Jonathan Sanchez (5-9, 4.49). Kuroda has been fine lately going six Innings in all of his last 3 starts allowing 2, 2 and 3 ERs. But he is still winless against San Francisco in 4 starts. Sanchez on the other side is also winless against the Dodgers in five starts but his numbers improved over his last two starts so he could have a good day. Also Sanchez is much better at home where his number radically improve to 4-1 along with a 3.26 ERA. Enough for me to put 3 units on a more focused Giant team at 2.07 or +107.
Good Luck.
Abonnieren
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