Record: 10-19, -8.27
Nice bet today on Wake Forest hosting Stanford.
Wake Forest lost its opener last week against Baylor. Wake is at home today while Stanford has a long road travel behind them. Stanford mostly works with its running game with RB Toby Gerhart who rushed for 121 yards last week in a 39-13 win at Washington State. This shouldn't be a big problem for Wake as they own a very good Defense where most of the line is back from last year. New Stanford QB Luck probably has to do some work which should be a problem for the young guy.
Wake Forest, losing by 3 to Baylor, has a versatile Offense using different RBs behind top QB Riley Skinner who should be the key here. He had decent numbers last week but threw 3 interceptions which shouldn't be the case today as he is usually not at all prone to throw INTs which you can see from his last years' stats. He's also behind an experinced O-Line, so be sure he will improve this week.
The -3 spread is a joke as I think they will win by double digits, so I will play them here at 1.95 or -105 with 5 units(highest possible stake). Good Luck.
DG
9/12/2009
9/11/2009
Play on Cleveland and Chicago WS
Record: 10-17, -3.27
Today I will play on the Cleveland Indians. They play against the Royals who recently achieved e series sweep against the Tigers.
The Royals send Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.22) who is probably this years' best pitcher. Despite his great ERA he owns a 13-8 record and it gets even worse if you look at his team starts. The Royals unbelievably lost 9 of Greinke's last 12 team starts and 13 of his last 18. Of course this comes from very poor offensive play as Greinke gets very few run support. It almost seems he has to pitch a shutout complete game to gain a win. His career numbers against the Indians are ok at 6-8, but a nice 3.62 ERA. On the home side we see Justin Masterson(4-7, 4.40) who came over from Boston. Though his numbers are average, he seems to feel comfortable at home in Cleveland where he has allowed only 10 hits (but 10 walks, too) in 15.1 innings and only one ER since his arrival.
So we have the pitching edge going to the Royals, but Masterson has good stuff and if he doesn't walk too many players he should be able to shut down this bad KC offense. The Indians lost their last three here at home against Texas, but of course the Rangers are way better than KC, especially on the hitting side. Cleveland also lost its last game 10-0 which creates a good spot here, because losing at home by double digits and scoring not a single run makes players angry. They had a day rest to get together and should now be eager to show their fans a much improved performance. Kansas won 4 in a row, but all at home. Now they have to play on the road which is a new situation. Maybe scoring one or two runs against Greinke will be enough for Cleveland, or they score against the KC bullpen who hopefully gets some innings. I will take them as dogs on a nice 2.28 or +128 with 2 units.
Second one will be on the White Sox who play on the road versus the Angels. Both teams own a nice winning stretch here.
The Sox send Gavin Floyd(11-9, 3.84) who did well of late going 6 or more innings in his last five games while putting up good numbers. He's good against LA with 1-2 and a 3.38 ERA while that win came 5 weeks ago when he held them to two runs(one earned) in 8 innings and a 6-2 Sox win. LA will go with Joe Saunders(12-7, 4.97) who actually owns the better record but his ERA of almost five is way too much. He started well into the season, but since the end of June his ERA went down from 3.66 to 4.97. His last three starts were ok, but he played Detroit, Seattle and Kansas City. His last game looked ok with only 2 ERs over 5.1 innings but he allowed 10 hits and a walks against the bad Kansas offense. His career stats vs Chicago at 2-2 and a 3.98 ERA are ok, but nothing special.
As said, both teams have nice winning stretches of late as Chicago won 6 of its last 8 and LA 6 of its last 7. The Angels did it by very good pitching, but they averaged only 3 runs over their last 9 games which probably won't be enough tonight. The Sox alternately won and lost in their last five games and while baseball is a game of streaks, I expect another win here. I will play the Sox as dogs at 2.24 or +124 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on the Cleveland Indians. They play against the Royals who recently achieved e series sweep against the Tigers.
The Royals send Zack Greinke(13-8, 2.22) who is probably this years' best pitcher. Despite his great ERA he owns a 13-8 record and it gets even worse if you look at his team starts. The Royals unbelievably lost 9 of Greinke's last 12 team starts and 13 of his last 18. Of course this comes from very poor offensive play as Greinke gets very few run support. It almost seems he has to pitch a shutout complete game to gain a win. His career numbers against the Indians are ok at 6-8, but a nice 3.62 ERA. On the home side we see Justin Masterson(4-7, 4.40) who came over from Boston. Though his numbers are average, he seems to feel comfortable at home in Cleveland where he has allowed only 10 hits (but 10 walks, too) in 15.1 innings and only one ER since his arrival.
So we have the pitching edge going to the Royals, but Masterson has good stuff and if he doesn't walk too many players he should be able to shut down this bad KC offense. The Indians lost their last three here at home against Texas, but of course the Rangers are way better than KC, especially on the hitting side. Cleveland also lost its last game 10-0 which creates a good spot here, because losing at home by double digits and scoring not a single run makes players angry. They had a day rest to get together and should now be eager to show their fans a much improved performance. Kansas won 4 in a row, but all at home. Now they have to play on the road which is a new situation. Maybe scoring one or two runs against Greinke will be enough for Cleveland, or they score against the KC bullpen who hopefully gets some innings. I will take them as dogs on a nice 2.28 or +128 with 2 units.
Second one will be on the White Sox who play on the road versus the Angels. Both teams own a nice winning stretch here.
The Sox send Gavin Floyd(11-9, 3.84) who did well of late going 6 or more innings in his last five games while putting up good numbers. He's good against LA with 1-2 and a 3.38 ERA while that win came 5 weeks ago when he held them to two runs(one earned) in 8 innings and a 6-2 Sox win. LA will go with Joe Saunders(12-7, 4.97) who actually owns the better record but his ERA of almost five is way too much. He started well into the season, but since the end of June his ERA went down from 3.66 to 4.97. His last three starts were ok, but he played Detroit, Seattle and Kansas City. His last game looked ok with only 2 ERs over 5.1 innings but he allowed 10 hits and a walks against the bad Kansas offense. His career stats vs Chicago at 2-2 and a 3.98 ERA are ok, but nothing special.
As said, both teams have nice winning stretches of late as Chicago won 6 of its last 8 and LA 6 of its last 7. The Angels did it by very good pitching, but they averaged only 3 runs over their last 9 games which probably won't be enough tonight. The Sox alternately won and lost in their last five games and while baseball is a game of streaks, I expect another win here. I will play the Sox as dogs at 2.24 or +124 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
9/10/2009
Play on Houston RL
Record: 10-16. -2.27
Today I recommend a play on Houston on the run line. We see Roy Oswalt(8-5, 3.77) going for Houston. He had two bad games about three weeks ago but since then he seems to be back on track. His WHIP numbers steadily improved the last three games in which he play against top teams like St Louis, Philadelphia and the Cubs who have also become better recently. Only his numbers agains the Braves are pretty bad at 0-2 and a 6.18 ERA in 6 starts, but actually he hasn't played them for a very long time except the one inning this season where he allowed a walk and had two Ks and then was stopped because of a rain delay.
His opponent will be Derek Lowe(13-9, 4.36) who started very good into the season but has moved on an average level since mid June. He went up and down all season and as his last few starts were ok, he has just played the Phillies as a good team.
I don't expect Lowe to allow too many runs as his career ERA vs the Astros is good at 3.10, but I don't expect the Braves to score many as well. They seem to be out of sync as they went 1-6 lately and their wild card chances are pretty small. They aren't too many games back, but there are other contenders in between and they can't expect all of them to struggle. Houston is out of the race, too, but they managed to play well in their last few games, and I expect them to keep on playing well, at least as long as they are at home. And posting a winning record is manageable for them if they keep winning their home games.
So I don't expect many runs and the better pitcher on the home side. Why play the run line and not the under you may ask. It's just because of the first two games in this series. The first won was won by Atlanta by 2-1, the second one went to Houston by the same result. Now, Houston is not a great pitcher park and as only a combined six runs have been scored in those two games I am carious to take the under(remember there is still a bullpen). And both of those games were won by a run so chances that this will happen again are rather small. That's why I take Houston on the run line at 2.86 or +186 with 1 units. Good Luck
DG
Today I recommend a play on Houston on the run line. We see Roy Oswalt(8-5, 3.77) going for Houston. He had two bad games about three weeks ago but since then he seems to be back on track. His WHIP numbers steadily improved the last three games in which he play against top teams like St Louis, Philadelphia and the Cubs who have also become better recently. Only his numbers agains the Braves are pretty bad at 0-2 and a 6.18 ERA in 6 starts, but actually he hasn't played them for a very long time except the one inning this season where he allowed a walk and had two Ks and then was stopped because of a rain delay.
His opponent will be Derek Lowe(13-9, 4.36) who started very good into the season but has moved on an average level since mid June. He went up and down all season and as his last few starts were ok, he has just played the Phillies as a good team.
I don't expect Lowe to allow too many runs as his career ERA vs the Astros is good at 3.10, but I don't expect the Braves to score many as well. They seem to be out of sync as they went 1-6 lately and their wild card chances are pretty small. They aren't too many games back, but there are other contenders in between and they can't expect all of them to struggle. Houston is out of the race, too, but they managed to play well in their last few games, and I expect them to keep on playing well, at least as long as they are at home. And posting a winning record is manageable for them if they keep winning their home games.
So I don't expect many runs and the better pitcher on the home side. Why play the run line and not the under you may ask. It's just because of the first two games in this series. The first won was won by Atlanta by 2-1, the second one went to Houston by the same result. Now, Houston is not a great pitcher park and as only a combined six runs have been scored in those two games I am carious to take the under(remember there is still a bullpen). And both of those games were won by a run so chances that this will happen again are rather small. That's why I take Houston on the run line at 2.86 or +186 with 1 units. Good Luck
DG
9/08/2009
Play on St. Louis and Phi/Was Under9
Record: 8-16, -4.78
Today I recommend a play on St. Louis. They play their second game at Milwaukee after they won 3-0 yesterday with their ace Chris Carpenter. They will send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.63) to the hill with his great 2.65 ERA since he is a Cardinal what he is for just two games so far. For Boston he was bad this season with 2-5 and 8.32 ERA but this is another league now. For pitchers it is much easier to play in the NL because the AL is the superior league and there is the DH which isn't the case here. He opposes Manny Parra(10-10, 6.47) who is on a 6-2 run but that mostly came from great run support. In that stretch he allowed 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6 and 2 runs and only once made more than six innings. In his last outing he got the win against that same Cardinals team and Smoltz. But don't worry, Smoltz didn't really pitch bad. He allowed 4 ERs, but that came on only 6 hits and no walk in 6 innings, so this was a bit of bad luck. 3 of those 4 runs came in the 6th so today his coach should know when to take him off the field. Parra had 2 ERs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6.1 innings which isn't really better than Smoltz' performance. Parra's WHIP of 1.84 speaks for itself. Even if Smoltz will last only 5 or 6 innings St Louis still has a rested bullpen as Carpenter pitched a complete game yesterday.
Of course we also see one of the top teams in the league against a team that had high hopes in midseason but blew away its playoff chances during the last few weeks. I expect St Louis to keep on winning and a frustrated Brewer crew that probably already gave up its postseason dreams.
I play on St Louis at 1.82 or -121 with 2 units.
Second play is the under at the Philadelphia/ Washington matchup. Here we have Philly Pedro Martinez(3-0, 3.52) who is back on track since he is in Philadelphia. After he needed his first two or three games he seems to be fully back now and even those games weren't bad as the Phillies won all of his 5 starts. He's also 5-3, 2.74 against Washington in his career. For the Nationals we see John Lannan(8-10, 4.09) who wasn't good lately but I believe this game against the World Champions he will be motivated to show his abilities as the season for the Nationals has long been over. Of course his career stats vs the Phillies aren't good at 0-5 and a 5.89 ERA, but that mostly came on games in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. At home he is 5-1, 2.62 for the season and this is why I think he will be good tonight. Another addition is that the game will be played in pitcher friendly National Stadium.
The Phillies have a strong offense but look at their scoring lately: they haven't scored more than 4 runs since August 24. I don't believe that they explode tonight in a pitcher park against one of Washington's best pitchers, especially at home.
I play the under 9 at 1.87 or -115 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
Today I recommend a play on St. Louis. They play their second game at Milwaukee after they won 3-0 yesterday with their ace Chris Carpenter. They will send John Smoltz(3-6, 6.63) to the hill with his great 2.65 ERA since he is a Cardinal what he is for just two games so far. For Boston he was bad this season with 2-5 and 8.32 ERA but this is another league now. For pitchers it is much easier to play in the NL because the AL is the superior league and there is the DH which isn't the case here. He opposes Manny Parra(10-10, 6.47) who is on a 6-2 run but that mostly came from great run support. In that stretch he allowed 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6 and 2 runs and only once made more than six innings. In his last outing he got the win against that same Cardinals team and Smoltz. But don't worry, Smoltz didn't really pitch bad. He allowed 4 ERs, but that came on only 6 hits and no walk in 6 innings, so this was a bit of bad luck. 3 of those 4 runs came in the 6th so today his coach should know when to take him off the field. Parra had 2 ERs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6.1 innings which isn't really better than Smoltz' performance. Parra's WHIP of 1.84 speaks for itself. Even if Smoltz will last only 5 or 6 innings St Louis still has a rested bullpen as Carpenter pitched a complete game yesterday.
Of course we also see one of the top teams in the league against a team that had high hopes in midseason but blew away its playoff chances during the last few weeks. I expect St Louis to keep on winning and a frustrated Brewer crew that probably already gave up its postseason dreams.
I play on St Louis at 1.82 or -121 with 2 units.
Second play is the under at the Philadelphia/ Washington matchup. Here we have Philly Pedro Martinez(3-0, 3.52) who is back on track since he is in Philadelphia. After he needed his first two or three games he seems to be fully back now and even those games weren't bad as the Phillies won all of his 5 starts. He's also 5-3, 2.74 against Washington in his career. For the Nationals we see John Lannan(8-10, 4.09) who wasn't good lately but I believe this game against the World Champions he will be motivated to show his abilities as the season for the Nationals has long been over. Of course his career stats vs the Phillies aren't good at 0-5 and a 5.89 ERA, but that mostly came on games in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. At home he is 5-1, 2.62 for the season and this is why I think he will be good tonight. Another addition is that the game will be played in pitcher friendly National Stadium.
The Phillies have a strong offense but look at their scoring lately: they haven't scored more than 4 runs since August 24. I don't believe that they explode tonight in a pitcher park against one of Washington's best pitchers, especially at home.
I play the under 9 at 1.87 or -115 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
9/07/2009
Play on Tampa Bay
Record: 8-15, -2.78
Bad Football weekend. Today I'll go back to the MLB with a small play on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game against the Yankees.
The Rays go with Matt Garza(7-9, 4.01) opposing Yankees ace CC Sabathia(16-7, 3.48). Sabathia played very well of late as he is 8-1 in his last ten starts, but remember who the opponents were! He didn't play many good teams during that stretch. OK, There was Boston twice(both of them he won), the Tigers(also a win) and tonight's opponent Tampa Bay(which was the loss in those 10 games). The rest was offensively average or below average teams. In his career he played very good against the Rays at 7-2 and a 2.95 ERA. His last start, however, he lost as mentioned. Garza did play average over his last few starts, but I think it is a bit misleading as his WHIP was still good in that span though he suffered some runs. If we look at his opponents, we see great hitting teams in his last seven starts with Boston twice, the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and the Blue Jays who hit well at times, too. He is also able to eat some innings as he averages way over six per game. He is only 1-3 vs the Yanks, but his ERA of 3.80 is still pretty well.
The Yankees won seven in a row, but recently lost 2 of their last 3 which could be a sign that the winning stretch is over. The Rays on the other side have had a bad losing streak of late, but there were many close losses and they usually weren't blown out. One big aspect to me is yesterday's loss against the Tigers when they led 3-1 but suffered 4 runs in the ninth inning. They should be angry and fired up tonight, especially in the first game. They also badly need wins if they want to get a shot at the wild card spot which isn't lost yet but as said they really need a winning streak. This streak should start today against a Yankee team that owns a comfortable lead in the AL East. Possibly they lay back a bit now to get back on fire when playoffs start.
So we have the pitching edge for New York, but in my eyes it is not that big as odds suggest. And as a team the Rays should win and are in a good position to do so as they are probably fired up against a Yankee team that can sit back and relax a bit. So I will play the Rays here with 2 units at 2.80 or +180.
Good Luck
Bad Football weekend. Today I'll go back to the MLB with a small play on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game against the Yankees.
The Rays go with Matt Garza(7-9, 4.01) opposing Yankees ace CC Sabathia(16-7, 3.48). Sabathia played very well of late as he is 8-1 in his last ten starts, but remember who the opponents were! He didn't play many good teams during that stretch. OK, There was Boston twice(both of them he won), the Tigers(also a win) and tonight's opponent Tampa Bay(which was the loss in those 10 games). The rest was offensively average or below average teams. In his career he played very good against the Rays at 7-2 and a 2.95 ERA. His last start, however, he lost as mentioned. Garza did play average over his last few starts, but I think it is a bit misleading as his WHIP was still good in that span though he suffered some runs. If we look at his opponents, we see great hitting teams in his last seven starts with Boston twice, the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and the Blue Jays who hit well at times, too. He is also able to eat some innings as he averages way over six per game. He is only 1-3 vs the Yanks, but his ERA of 3.80 is still pretty well.
The Yankees won seven in a row, but recently lost 2 of their last 3 which could be a sign that the winning stretch is over. The Rays on the other side have had a bad losing streak of late, but there were many close losses and they usually weren't blown out. One big aspect to me is yesterday's loss against the Tigers when they led 3-1 but suffered 4 runs in the ninth inning. They should be angry and fired up tonight, especially in the first game. They also badly need wins if they want to get a shot at the wild card spot which isn't lost yet but as said they really need a winning streak. This streak should start today against a Yankee team that owns a comfortable lead in the AL East. Possibly they lay back a bit now to get back on fire when playoffs start.
So we have the pitching edge for New York, but in my eyes it is not that big as odds suggest. And as a team the Rays should win and are in a good position to do so as they are probably fired up against a Yankee team that can sit back and relax a bit. So I will play the Rays here with 2 units at 2.80 or +180.
Good Luck
Abonnieren
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