8/28/2009

Play on Arizona -3.5 and Pittsburgh

Record: 8-11, +5.22

Today I really like Arizona minus the points. They haven't won a game yet while Green Bay won both of its games in preseason. Arizona lost last week at home, so they should be very motivated to rehab in front of their fans. They didn't score a lot so far, too, with 10 points in week 1 and only 6 last week. Time to come up big tonight.
Green Bay won both games jumping out to an early lead in both games. Time for them to relax a bit, and it will be their first road game as both other contests were at home. So this should be a completely different game which Arizona should leave as the winner.
I will play the spread of -3.5 on Arizona with 2 units at 1.99 or -101.

Other pick is on the Pirates who visit Milwaukee. I really don't know why the Brewers are favored so much. Ok, Milwaukee got swept in its last home series vs Cincinnati and now badly needs a win over visiting Pittsburgh that played at home yesterday but didn't need to make a very long trip here. As said Milwaukee is in bad form losing 8 of their last 11 and Pittsburgh won 7 of its last 9. Edge goes to Pirates.
Another point is the pitching duel. Zach Duke(10-11, 3.38) has very good numbers although he posts a losing record. That's because he often didn't get much run support. On the other side we have Brewer Manny Parra(8-10, 6.54) with bad numbers despite an acceptable 8-10 record. He's the opposite of Duke. He won 4 of his last six despite terrible performances, but he got much run support. That ended in his last two starts where he pitched bad again and lost both of them.
So we have the much better pitcher going for Pittsburgh and the Pirates also in better form which should mean runs for Duke. The only reason for those crazy odds is -as far as I can see- the Pirates playing on the road where they are 18-43 this season. But this record looks really bad and shouldn't go down much more, I would rather say they will be close to .50 for the rest of the season.
I will play on Pittsburgh here at 2.36 or +136 with 2 units.
Good Luck

8/25/2009

Play on Pittsburgh

Record: 7-11, +0.27

Ridiculous odds here. We have Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh tonight as the pitching matchup will be Joe Blanton(8-6, 3.86) vs. Ross Ohlendorf(11-8, 4.15) which is a very even matchup. Blanton allowed 3 runs only three times in his last 10 starts (never more than 3) while Ohlendorf allowed 3 runs two times and five runs once. Both have similar ERAs and WHIPs. Blanton is great in two starts against Pittsburgh while Ohlendorf was ok in his lone start vs Philadelphia. So we have a pretty even pitching duel and have to search for other factors.
We see both teams hot, especially Philadelphia on its 11-2 run while Pittsburgh won 5 of its last 6. Philadelphia's last day of rest was on 17th while Pittsburgh plays its third home series in a row with a day rest between each series. So the Pirates should be more rested.
If we weigh up all the factors mentioned here, we have a pretty even matchup, maybe with a very little advantage for the Phillies, but with odds of 2.65 or +165 for Pittsburgh I have to play on them with 3 units.
Good Luck