Record: 8-11, +5.22
Today I really like Arizona minus the points. They haven't won a game yet while Green Bay won both of its games in preseason. Arizona lost last week at home, so they should be very motivated to rehab in front of their fans. They didn't score a lot so far, too, with 10 points in week 1 and only 6 last week. Time to come up big tonight.
Green Bay won both games jumping out to an early lead in both games. Time for them to relax a bit, and it will be their first road game as both other contests were at home. So this should be a completely different game which Arizona should leave as the winner.
I will play the spread of -3.5 on Arizona with 2 units at 1.99 or -101.
Other pick is on the Pirates who visit Milwaukee. I really don't know why the Brewers are favored so much. Ok, Milwaukee got swept in its last home series vs Cincinnati and now badly needs a win over visiting Pittsburgh that played at home yesterday but didn't need to make a very long trip here. As said Milwaukee is in bad form losing 8 of their last 11 and Pittsburgh won 7 of its last 9. Edge goes to Pirates.
Another point is the pitching duel. Zach Duke(10-11, 3.38) has very good numbers although he posts a losing record. That's because he often didn't get much run support. On the other side we have Brewer Manny Parra(8-10, 6.54) with bad numbers despite an acceptable 8-10 record. He's the opposite of Duke. He won 4 of his last six despite terrible performances, but he got much run support. That ended in his last two starts where he pitched bad again and lost both of them.
So we have the much better pitcher going for Pittsburgh and the Pirates also in better form which should mean runs for Duke. The only reason for those crazy odds is -as far as I can see- the Pirates playing on the road where they are 18-43 this season. But this record looks really bad and shouldn't go down much more, I would rather say they will be close to .50 for the rest of the season.
I will play on Pittsburgh here at 2.36 or +136 with 2 units.
Good Luck
8/25/2009
Play on Pittsburgh
Record: 7-11, +0.27
Ridiculous odds here. We have Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh tonight as the pitching matchup will be Joe Blanton(8-6, 3.86) vs. Ross Ohlendorf(11-8, 4.15) which is a very even matchup. Blanton allowed 3 runs only three times in his last 10 starts (never more than 3) while Ohlendorf allowed 3 runs two times and five runs once. Both have similar ERAs and WHIPs. Blanton is great in two starts against Pittsburgh while Ohlendorf was ok in his lone start vs Philadelphia. So we have a pretty even pitching duel and have to search for other factors.
We see both teams hot, especially Philadelphia on its 11-2 run while Pittsburgh won 5 of its last 6. Philadelphia's last day of rest was on 17th while Pittsburgh plays its third home series in a row with a day rest between each series. So the Pirates should be more rested.
If we weigh up all the factors mentioned here, we have a pretty even matchup, maybe with a very little advantage for the Phillies, but with odds of 2.65 or +165 for Pittsburgh I have to play on them with 3 units.
Good Luck
Ridiculous odds here. We have Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh tonight as the pitching matchup will be Joe Blanton(8-6, 3.86) vs. Ross Ohlendorf(11-8, 4.15) which is a very even matchup. Blanton allowed 3 runs only three times in his last 10 starts (never more than 3) while Ohlendorf allowed 3 runs two times and five runs once. Both have similar ERAs and WHIPs. Blanton is great in two starts against Pittsburgh while Ohlendorf was ok in his lone start vs Philadelphia. So we have a pretty even pitching duel and have to search for other factors.
We see both teams hot, especially Philadelphia on its 11-2 run while Pittsburgh won 5 of its last 6. Philadelphia's last day of rest was on 17th while Pittsburgh plays its third home series in a row with a day rest between each series. So the Pirates should be more rested.
If we weigh up all the factors mentioned here, we have a pretty even matchup, maybe with a very little advantage for the Phillies, but with odds of 2.65 or +165 for Pittsburgh I have to play on them with 3 units.
Good Luck
8/22/2009
Play on Cleveland -3.5, Washington -3.5 and Texas
Record: 5-10, -4.27
Still angry about Toronto yesterday. Today we have a perfect scenario in Cleveland that lost 0-17 last week against Green Bay and should be highly motivated to turn things around today. They play against last year 0-16 Detroit. I don't care much about the lineups in preseason games as starters don't play very much. Matt Stafford gets the starting QB job for the Lions tonight, he should be motivated, too as he's battling for the starting job. But the Lions team is too bad as a whole. Last week I wanted to take them as they should have shown something after this cruel season. They did as they won by one but didn't cover the spread. So they have their win for now but didn't show major improvement.
As the Browns are the much more motivated team they should win this one easily and I put 4 units on the spread at -3.5 with odds of 1.90 or -111.
Second one will be on Washington that lost even bigger by 0-23 at Buffalo. They also have to prove something tonight and what better opponent could they have to prove their abilities as the reigning champs Steelers. The Steelers themselves won last week in a small rematch of last SuperBowl matchup against Arizona by 20-10. Time to relax a bit now for them and the Redskins should have no problems winning this one.
I'll give them a shot with 3 units at the -3.5 spread and odds of 1.98 or -102.
Last one will be Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Texas Rangers. Both teams fight for the wild card spot right now and the Rays won yesterdays series opener. Today they go with Matt Garza(7-8, 3.73) who did well over the season but had some suspect outings lately. His ERA is still solid but his WHIP decreased over the last few games. Also, his last start against the Rangers was really bad. Texas sends Tommy Hunter(6-2, 2.64) who also had two lesser starts lately but is still great for the season. His lone start against the Rays was on July 3rd and pitched great then.
So, with Tampa in better form and at home where they are 41-20 they should be the faves here, but surely not that high as Texas owns a good offense, too, and at least an equal pitcher. With odds of 2.63 or +163 I have to go with them by 2 units.
Good Luck
Still angry about Toronto yesterday. Today we have a perfect scenario in Cleveland that lost 0-17 last week against Green Bay and should be highly motivated to turn things around today. They play against last year 0-16 Detroit. I don't care much about the lineups in preseason games as starters don't play very much. Matt Stafford gets the starting QB job for the Lions tonight, he should be motivated, too as he's battling for the starting job. But the Lions team is too bad as a whole. Last week I wanted to take them as they should have shown something after this cruel season. They did as they won by one but didn't cover the spread. So they have their win for now but didn't show major improvement.
As the Browns are the much more motivated team they should win this one easily and I put 4 units on the spread at -3.5 with odds of 1.90 or -111.
Second one will be on Washington that lost even bigger by 0-23 at Buffalo. They also have to prove something tonight and what better opponent could they have to prove their abilities as the reigning champs Steelers. The Steelers themselves won last week in a small rematch of last SuperBowl matchup against Arizona by 20-10. Time to relax a bit now for them and the Redskins should have no problems winning this one.
I'll give them a shot with 3 units at the -3.5 spread and odds of 1.98 or -102.
Last one will be Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Texas Rangers. Both teams fight for the wild card spot right now and the Rays won yesterdays series opener. Today they go with Matt Garza(7-8, 3.73) who did well over the season but had some suspect outings lately. His ERA is still solid but his WHIP decreased over the last few games. Also, his last start against the Rangers was really bad. Texas sends Tommy Hunter(6-2, 2.64) who also had two lesser starts lately but is still great for the season. His lone start against the Rays was on July 3rd and pitched great then.
So, with Tampa in better form and at home where they are 41-20 they should be the faves here, but surely not that high as Texas owns a good offense, too, and at least an equal pitcher. With odds of 2.63 or +163 I have to go with them by 2 units.
Good Luck
8/21/2009
Play on Toronto RL and Oakland
Record: 5-8, -0.27
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.
Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).
So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.
Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.
Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.
At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.
8/20/2009
Play on Indianapolis ML
Record: 4-8, -1.80
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
Today I recommend a small play on preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis.
Indianapolis lost its first preseason game against Minnesota by 3-13. I suppose they don't want to lose a second one here at home. Tony Dungy used to rest his starters a lot and didn't care about preseason. New coach Jim Caldwell should care as he lost last week. He didn't give Manning a lot of playing time, but Manning said he needs more time with his staff to get things going. Today he should get about 20 plays. Backup QB Sorgi is still injured but third QB Curtis Painter wasn't bad last week as he just got 77 Yard but completed 10 of 17 passes.
The Eagles lost to New England by 2 last week in a nice game. Scares me a bit that accordingly to Andy Reid, McNabb will play the entire first half, but he misses all but one of his regular OL which is Center Jamaal Jackson. He also misses his best target in injured RB Brian Westbrook. And, when McNabb leaves they can't bring in Vick who isn't allowed to play today which should be a big plus as the reserves don't pass a lot usually, but Vick is known as a good runner.
So this should be a good bet as Manning is eager to play and Indy probably a bit more motivated so I'll take them on the ML at 2.53 or +153 with 1 unit.
Good Luck
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