Record: 28-40, -5.70
Probably the last one for tonight is on Chicago minus the points.
The Bears had high hopes before the season started by acquiring Jay Cutler. And though his numbers aren't completely bad he threw way too many interceptions (20 of them). If he can get that number down they will be in the pack next season. They are at 4-7 and could try some things to already prepare for next season. But I think they will keep playing as long as they have a mathematical chance to go to the playoffs. Especially at home I assume they will play hard. They have a balanced team. Their Offense is 15th (14th Pass, 17th Rush), the Defense is 12th (13th Pass, 19th Rush). So there's nothing were they are great, but they have no weak spots as well. They lost 4 in a row but it was against good teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and hard fighting San Francisco. Now they host one of the worst teams.
The Rams are 1-10. I'm cautious with teams who have no wins yet as a team doesn't want to be winless. As they got their win, that's fine for me. The Rams Defense won't stop the Bears. They look good against the pass, but that's bacause teams prefer to run the clock down with leads against the Rams. Their Offense is even worse. They have the worst passing offense in the league, and with Bulger out, Boller didn't do better. At least they are 9th in rushing offense as they have one of the best backs in Stephen Jackson. But of course, that's too easy for opponents. They played well against New Orleans and Arizona at home in the Dome, but in Chicago they will have problems with the ground. In 5 road games they scored only a combined 44 points, 17 of them in their lone win at Detroit. Their other opponents were teams that aren't known as defensive powerhouses as well.
This spread looks good to me and I will take the -9.5 at 1.96 or -104 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/06/2009
Free Pick: Arizona ML
Record: 28-40, -5.70
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
Another pick in the NFL will be on the Cardinals.
This pick sat in my head all week long. I can't give you much to support this one, it's more about intuition. The Vikings are at 10-1 and are still only second place in the NFC as the Saints show no signs of weakness. Maybe they try to catch them, but I believe they'll be fine with the No. 2 spot. Of course they own the best Defense in the country as well as the No 3 rushing Offense behind workhorse Peterson. But they had 3 home games in a row and now had a long trip to Arizona. Maybe they are also a bit tired of chasing New Orleans that wins steadily.
Arizona doesn't look as good as they looked last year when they went to the SuperBowl and almost won. But don't forget, their regular season was even worse than this years'. They are at 7-4 and look like a safe bet to win the division. But the 49ers are only 2 games back and Arizona still has to go to SF, and as they lost to them at home already, it is a precarious situation for them. I'm sure they want to keep the lead at two games or make it 3 before heading to San Francisco. It will be all about their Defense, because the Offense will score some points. Even if Minnesota is No. 1 in Total Defense, this potent Offense will score with Kurt Warner, the great targets he has, and two nice backs behind him.
As said, this is a pick that is mainly build on intuition (all of my picks include intuition, but this one with much bigger weight). I will give them a shot at the Money Line at 2.6 with 2 units. Good Luck.
DG
12/05/2009
Free Pick: Tennessee ML
Record 27-40, -8.36 (1 pending)
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Tomorrow I will play Tennessee on the Money Line as they visit the Indy Colts.
The Colts are 11-0, of course, but they were lucky at times. In their last 5 games they won by 4, 3, 1, 2 and 8 points while last week they escaped with a fourth quarter rally against Houston. They struggle to cover the spread as in those five they went 1-4 ATS, and over the season they are 1-4 ATS at home, too. Of course if they had to bring in peak performances they could probably outscore most teams. But now, they seem to lean back waiting for the postseason. They can do so as they already clinched the division title and in AFC play they are chased by San Diego and Cincy, but both are at 8-3, so no time to panic for Indy. Home field advantage should be secured for the playoffs.
Tennessee is a pretty crazy team this year. They started 0-6with that crushing loss against New England before going into their bye week. Since then, however, they won all 5 games. Opponents weren't top teams, but they still beat some contenders as Houston, San Francisco or Arizona, and they didn't play any cupcake as Kansas City or Tampa Bay. So they still have a little chance to advance to postseason, but they have to win almost all games. Against the Colts I see good chances because of the points mentioned above. And if they get a lead, they can do what they do best which is running the ball behind Chris Johnson who's already rushed for almost 1400 yards this season.
You can also take the spread of almost a TD (I recommend to buy the half point for insurance), but I will bet on the Titans straight up at 3.32 with 3 units. Good Luck
DG
Free Pick: Arizona +7
Record: 27-40, -8.36
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today I will play on Arizona plus the points visiting the Southern Californa Trojans.
Very tight conference, this years' Pacific 10. No less than 5 teams could end up with almost the same record. Arizona is in 6th place right now, but they could climb up to get to a better bowl game. They seem motivated to do so, beating Arizona State in a rivalry game last week. By the way this won't be a factor here as USC had a rivalry game and won, too last week.
Arizona played well during the season being competitive in almost all games. Their losses were mostly close ones losing by 3 to Pac10 champs Oregon, for example.
Different is USC who had hopes to get to the Natinal Championship game, as they have every year. Their least goal is to get to the Rose Bowl where the played several years in a row if not having played for the National Championship. I assume they will be highly disappointed and frustrated not even going to the Rose Bowl this year as Oregon clinched the Pac10 title already. They could even finish with a loss here as they probably don't care much which bowl they will play. Their results were pretty bad this year as in their 8 wins they won luckly close games several times, e.g. against the Buckeyes. They beat their long time rivals UCLA last week which probably was their last goal this season.
I will play Arizona, which seems more interested in a better bowl, plus a TD at 1.885 or -113 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
11/28/2009
Free Pick: Florida State +25
Record: 27-39, -5.36
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
Today's free pick will be on College Football game between Florida and Florida State.
Florida State is a good team and won't be blown away today. First, Florida often won by smaller margins this season. They don't score lights out. It's their Defense that played great in most games. Second, Florida plays the most imaginably decisive game next week which will decide if they play for the National Championship again, no matter how big they win tonight. Third this is an in-state rivalry game and dogs are often much more motivated.
I will play the dog with + 25 at 1.90 or -111 with 3 units. Good Luck.
DG
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