Play on Toronto

Record: 16-22, +2.87


For tonight I found only one game worth playing which is on the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay sends one of its best starters in James Shields(9-11, 4.03) who couldn't repeat last season numbers when he was one of the main reasons of the Rays' run to the World Series. However his ERA is not that much worse than last year, but the whole team is too inconsistent. Shield had a good ERA of 3.42 in mid season, gut has lowered it since then, especially in hs last few starts. In his last outing in Boston he was ok (3ERs in 6 innings), but still got the loss there. During his last 10, however, he was far too inconsistent to play him here. Toronto will send Scott Richmond(6-9, 5.03) to the mound who is actually worse than Shields, in his last four starts he allowed 5 or 6 runs in each one of them. But look at his opponents: in his last six he played against the Yankees, the Angels, Boston, Texas, Minnesota and Detroit which are all contenders for playoff spots or better. So he has really been tested during that span.

Tonight he will play against a Rays team that quit playing since their postseason dreams have gone. They lost 11 in a row and then went 2-2 at Baltimore, by far the worst team in the AL East. Toronto's season is over, too, they will post a losing record, but they still want to prove something as it seems. They split each of their last 4 series though they played tough competition, all playoff contenders: Yankees(twice), Minnesota and Detroit. One last point here: if you compare home/road play, you will find a big edge for Tampa Bay, but they play on turf which gives them an advantage against almost all teams. The only other teams playing on turf are Minnesota and -yes- Toronto. So part of that records come from turf play which is egalized here. That also translates on Richmond who is a run better at home(on turf). Should be good for him, too.

All this makes me play Toronto at nice dog odds of 2.67 or +167 with 1 unit. Good Luck.

DG