Play on Kansas City +13

Record: 11-19, -3.52


Today's pick will be on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points. The spread on Baltimore went up so much that I have to play on Kansas.

The Chiefs were really bad last year but they upgraded their team enough to be competitve here. Their Defense probably plays a 3-4 scheme with some new players who should give them a boost, especially rookie DE Tyson Jackson and LB Mike Vrabel who replaces gone Donnie Edwards. I really don't think this D gets blown out by a mediocre Ravens Offense that upgraded with Tackle Michael Oher which will be good for the running game. They usually don't throw a lot even if Joe Flacco is able to do, but he hasn't got the best receiving corps around him.

The Ravens, of course, have one of the best Defenses in the league, but Kansas City should be able to put some points on the board with an improved Offense, mainly with Matt Cassell. I don't think he's a great QB as his numbers from last year are a bit misleading playing for New England, one of the best Offenses in the league. Nevertheless, he is an upgrade and with an improved passing game(WR Bobby Engram came over though TE Tony Gonzalez is a major loss) top RB Larry Johnson should also be able to put up better numbers than last year. And the Ravens Defense had some changes this offseason. They also lost Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan which should affect them, too.

I expect the Ravens to win this one, their Defense is still too good, but they won't blow out the Chiefs. The reason why the spread moved that much is mainly because of public perceiptions from last year and preseason. Baltimore went 4-0 in preseason while Kansas City finished at 0-4. Now you probaly know that preseason results don't matter at all for the regular season, but if you want to argue with it, you also have to see the Chiefs going 0-4, but they never allowed more than 17 points. I will play them with the spread of +13 at 1.95 or -105 with 2 units. Good Luck.



DG