9/16/2009

Play on Oakland/Texas over 10

Record: 15-21, +1.91

Difficult board tonight. Oddsmakers made some good numbers for tonight as I think. Only possible pick tonight is on the over in the Oakland/Texas game in my eyes.
We saw two blowout wins by Oakland in the first two games of this series. Oakland's offense really hit well. Texas on the other hand badly needs wins to keep hopes for the postseason alive. They didn't show the last two days. But I believe they will come back tonight scoring a lot of runs. They scored only one in the first two games, but that's not Texas. They can hit and they will do so tonight.
They will face Oakland's Trevor Cahill(8-12, 4.74) who had some nice outings in August but his numbers went down steadily in his two September starts where he combined for 8 innings allowing 6ERs, 11 hits and 4 walks. He's okay against Texas at 1-1, 4.15 ERA, but those two games were in Oakland which is a great pitcher park as today he has to play in hitter park in Arlington. Texas goes with Dustin Nippert(5-2, 3.95) who has nice numbers but his status as a starter is always in doubt, probably because he doesn't eat many innings. Sometimes he is a starter, sometimes a reliever. On September 12th against Seattle he came from bullpen and allowed 2ERs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. He pitched 20.1 innings against Oakland allowing only 5 ERs,but again we see those numbers coming from games in Oakland where he pitched 14 innings with 1 ER. Surprisingly he is better at home this year, but I wouldn't count on that tonight against the rising Oakland offense. Both bullpens had to work a lot yesterday which will be good for the pick, too.
Looks like a high scoring affair tonight, but as I'm not very successful in picking totals, I will play the over 10 at 2.14 or +114 with only a unit. Good Luck.
DG

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