Play on Chicago Cubs

Record: 18-25, -1.13


Today's first play( a second one should follow) will be on the Chicago Cubs who play their second game in San Francisco tonight.

The Cubs go with Carlos Zambrano(8-6, 3.91) opposing Tim Lincecum(14-6, 2.47). Zambrano has played six games now since a minor injury. The first two were bad but since then he has recovered and pitched well although he struggled a bit against Milwaukee last week. He still walks way too many batters as he had 3 or 4 walks in each of his last ten starts with one exception. However his ERA is great with so many walks. His career numbers against SF are good as well at 4-1 and a 3.26 ERA. Additionally, we see his ERA almost 2 runs better on the road than at home. He also has to play for something because the Cubs probably trade him away so he surely wants to show the league his abilities. Lincecum is a Cy Young canditate but probably won't win it because he's got only 14 wins. If he wins his 2, maybe 3 remaining games, he really has a shot on it, although I believe it will go to Cardinal Chris Carpenter. Nevertheless, he has been great all over the year, and his home numbers are better than on the road, and his career numbers against Chicago are very good, too at 3-1, 2.55 ERA. However, his ERA went up a bit over his last few starts and his team went only 4-4 in his last 8. 2 or 3 times he pitched bad, but mostly it is because of lack of run support.

One big point here is the Cubs team as I think. They've played very well of late to at least finish the season with a nice winning record. The Giants go the other direction losing too many games of late, although they had good chances to advance to postseason, but for now it seems very improbable. Maybe they are also a bit frustrated because of that which gives us very nice value on the odds for the Cubs tonight.

So I will play the Cubs as dogs at 2.48 or +148 with 3 units. Good Luck.

DG