Play on Toronto RL and Oakland

Record: 5-8, -0.27



First game here will be on Toronto that hosts the Angels tonight. The Jays go with Marc Rzepczynski(1-3, 3.98) against Halo Sean O'Sullivan(3-1, 5.91). Rzepczynski played very good as a rookie, but he seemed to worsen a few weeks ago. But he allowed 4 ERs only two times this season with both games being against the Yankees. And in his last outing he had an earned run in six innings at Tampa so he should be back on track if he even left it... O'Sullivan is a rookie, too, and although he's got a better record he is not the better pitcher. His record comes from good run support. In his last two games he couldn't reach the 5 inning mark and collected 6 ERs in both of those games.

Now we see Toronto in a slump losing six of their last seven and the Halos winning for weeks, but this is a new series and Toronto will be hot to show that the sweep by Boston was not for real and that they can score as they scored only a run in each of their last two. The Angels lost their last one, so one winning streak could be over, and they played poor Cleveland and has to go to Toronto now. We also know that Toronto's home record is only at 31-29 which should improve as they are usually much better at home where they play on turf. LA is 6-6 this year on turf and a bit worse against lefties (but only a bit, it shouldn't be a big argument here).

So this makes me play on Toronto with a big win tonight. I'll play them on the run line at 2.64 or +164 with 2 units. I also thought about the over, but I'm usually not very lucky (or good) with over/under bets.



Second pick will be on Oakland. They send Gio Gonzalez(4-3, 5.88) to the mound opposing Edwin Jackson(9-5, 2.85). What looks like a clear edge for Detroit isn't really that clear. Of course we know Jackson as a great pitcher this year and for sure he is over the season. But over his last few starts his WHIP really got down, he allowed too many hits along with some walks. He still was decent, but his ERA also went down a bit. And in his last nine starts Detroit won one then lost one. In his last game they won, so you know what happens now? (Of course don't take this seriously). Gonzalez started bad and he is very bad in two starts vs the Tigers and if you see his last start against the White Sox where he allowed six ERs in 5 innings you might say: No chance. But look: Despite this last start his ERA in his last 5 games is still 2.73 with a WHIP of 1.34, and without that Sox game he has a 1.46 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, so don't weigh too much into that game as over the 5 game span he is still very good. His big problem is that he has too many walks, but Detroit isn't good offensively, they like to hit but don't draw many walks. Plu, Gonzalez' ERA at home is 9.00 and this is a pitcher's park, so expect his numbers at home to improve.

Oakland also got a day rest here at home after the Yankees series while Detroit played their last one of the Seattle series at home yesterday. So the one team is rested at home coming from games vs the Yankees while the other team had to play vs an average Seattle team and had to travel a long way to the West.

At odds of 2.28 or +128 this can only mean we take the A's here with 2 units.