Free Picks: StLouis +14 and Detroit +17

Record: 26-39, -7.26


Today I will play both double digit dogs for different reasons. In both cases it is not about the dog being able to compete, but the favorites slowing down their game.

First we see New Orleans having had a great start winning their first 6 straight up and ATS. Since then they still won their games but couldn't cover the spread. I assume this will continue here as they almost already clinched a play off spot and now seem to take tempo out of their game. They should be able to control the game and win, but why should the run up the score wildly when they can sit back and hand the ball to their backs to avoid TOs and run the clock down. And, they still play on the road so 13.5 points seem too much to me as St Louis has the chance to show something tonight after their season is already over. But these are the games where they have a rare chance to shine if they can beat the unbeaten Saints. Probably that won't happen, but I'll buy half a point to get a spread of 14 which I will play at 1.94 or -106 and 3 units.
Second game will be pretty similar. We have the good Vikings team hosting the bad Lions. Detroit won a game at least after they went 0-16 last season. On the road they have been mostly blown out going 0-4 SU/ATS. This should change tonight as teams sometimes lose all road games but they very rarely lose all ATS. Minnesota usually dosn't blow out opponents. Last year they were very bad ATS when they were double digit favorites. That's because they often took leads and then handed the ball to Peterson. And why not? It's nice to have a guy like Peterson who can eat up the clock. This season they won by today's margin only once when they beat St Louis by 28. Don't think this happens again today. Again I'll buy the extra half point to make it +17 at 1.95 or -105. I give 2 units on this one. Good Luck.

DG