Free Pick: PSU -5

Record: 26-38, -3.26

Was on vacation, so I couldn't give free picks last 2 weeks. Today I'm back with a nice play on Penn State hosting the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Nittany Lions were the top favorite in the Big Ten along with Ohio State. The only lost to surprisingly good Iowa. Nevertheless I see a big advantage for them here. They average more than 30 PPG, but their Defense is even better allowing less than 10 PPG. They have returning power with top QB Daryl Clark who completed 63.1% of his passes for 2158 yards and 18 TDs against 7 picks. This Offense is great as along with a great passer they also have a great RB in Evan Royster who has run for 859 yards in 8 games so far with 5 TDs and an average gain of almost 6 yards. This is a very tough offense to stop.

Of course the Buckeyes have a good defense, too, allowing about 12PPG, but three times they held opponents to zero which were cupcakes Toledo, New Mexico State and Illinois. So this stat is a bit misleading. Their Offense averages more than 30 PPG as well, but it is a bit one dimensional behind Terelle Pryor who is definitely a great QB but everything is about him. His completion% is average at 54.6 along with 1543 yards and 13 TDs vs 9 INTs. He's also their best runner with 554 yards averaging 5.0 per run. Here he gets a little help from Brandon Saine. In all, they lack help for Pryor as they lost some starters from last year.

So while PSU plays the better defense, the more balanced offense and at home this spread of -5 looks like a present which I will take with 4 units at 1.971 or -103. Good Luck.

DG