Play on Minnesota

Record: 23-33, -2.66

Hi everybody,

this is a recommendation on a small play on the Minnesota Twins tonight. It's their first game of the series against the Yankees.

I know you might think I'm crazy and everyone jumps on the Yankee train, but let's face the stats first: The Yankees go with CC Sabathia(19-8, 3.37) who played a good seasonand he is also very good against the Twins at 13-8 and a 3.05 ERA. Most of that came from his time in Cleveland. If it had been all for the Yankees he would have gone 20-2 or so as he gets much more run support here in New York. Well, he is an ace and the superior ptcher against Twin Brian Duensing(5-2, 3.64) who played nice as a rookie, but has struggled in his last few outings and was put back into the bullpen in his last game. Now he starts again, and he never started against New York, but he had one relief outing where he allowed 4 ERs in 2.2 innings. Of course the Yankees like him as a lefty, especially here in New York.

So why play on Minnesota that used much of its bullpen yesterday while the Yankees are rested? That's it! Rested often means rusted. How often have you seen playoff teams letting the regular season roll out, maybe resting some key players and then having become rusty in their first few games in postseason. Maybe the Yankees have the same problem here. Their last few games were completely meaningless, and even if they don't want to lean back and rest, they do. Nobody wants to put too much effort into meaningless games. And today everyone speaks about the big favorite from New York. If you hear people talking on the streets or on TV, the Yanks have already won. Not the game, but the series. That doesn't help any team. And now we look at the Twins. They are the chanceless underdogs, they are already counted out by the media, the fans and experts, and by the oddsmakers which you can see from the ridiculous odds. If you look at the stats you see only New York. But believe me, that Detroit game yesterday geve them a push, they probably still feel the adrenalin inside them. And they are free from any pressure. That's a very important thing, many teams that achieved something they haven't achieved for a long time show that freeness from pressure.

I know this is a bit speculation and a pick mainly built on psychological aspects, but I will try this one even if the Twins could also been blown out today. I'll give 2 units on them at 4.30 or +330. Good Luck.

DG