Free Pick: Miami(Ohio) +18.5

Record: 23-34, -4.66


Today my free pick is a play on Miami(Ohio) plus the points visiting Northwestern.

Last week, I cashed with a play on Northwestern on the Money Line at Purdue. Looks strange that I go against them now but I have my reasons. In fact that win was a bit lucky and maybe I overrated them last week. They were down 3-21, but won outright in the end. That was mainly because of turnovers as Northwestern had only a lost fumble while Purdue lost five(!) and threw an interception. That bad stretch by the Boilermakers gave them the win in the end. Purdue even had the chance to come back as they were 1st and goal in the end but they couldn't convert it into a TD. Northwestern itself usually turns the ball over more than just once, so everything went their way last week. And they are not really known as a team that blows out its opponents. They only blew out Towson, all their other games were pretty close, two of them decided by last second field goals.

Miami is 0-5 so far but they had a really tough schedule. They started very bad into the season as expectations seemed too high for QB Raudabaugh. The last two games they started Zac Dysert who put up some nice numbers completing 62.2% for 698 yards although he had only a TD vs 2 INTs in both starts. He is described as Big Ben like. The Redhawks as a team were pretty nice in those two games although they lost both. At Western Michigan and Kent State they had 5 TOs in both games which were costly. WMI was outplayed by them 421-370 yards and 27-23 1st downs, but they trailed big numbers early so maybe WMI sat back a bit. At Kent Miami outplayed their opponents even bigger with an incredible 552-250 yards and 26-13 1st downs, but as said 5 turnovers cost them the win along with a blocked FG and a Kent kickoff return TD. So special teams need some work, too here. Last week they covered the number against Cincinnati in a 13-37 loss. Late in the third quarter they cut the Bearcats' lead to 13-23 and successfully tried an onside kick. They went to Cincy's 3 yard line and had a chance to get within 3, but Dysert slipped and threw an interception. Dysert was sacked 10 times, 6 in the 4th quarter, and some bad special team plays cost them points as well. They had a bad 6 yard punt and stupidly tried a fake punt at their own 27, both plays led to Cincinnati TDs.

So we saw Northwestern winning on many TOs and Miami losing on many TOs and bad special team play. If Miami can cut their TOs a bit and handle the ball better, they should cover the number. If not, we still have a good chance that Northwestern commit TOs on its own as they usually do. That is a lot of good chances on that play as I take Miami on the spread of +18.5 at 1.95 or -105 with 4 units. Good Luck.

DG