Play on Houston RL

Record: 10-16. -2.27



Today I recommend a play on Houston on the run line. We see Roy Oswalt(8-5, 3.77) going for Houston. He had two bad games about three weeks ago but since then he seems to be back on track. His WHIP numbers steadily improved the last three games in which he play against top teams like St Louis, Philadelphia and the Cubs who have also become better recently. Only his numbers agains the Braves are pretty bad at 0-2 and a 6.18 ERA in 6 starts, but actually he hasn't played them for a very long time except the one inning this season where he allowed a walk and had two Ks and then was stopped because of a rain delay.

His opponent will be Derek Lowe(13-9, 4.36) who started very good into the season but has moved on an average level since mid June. He went up and down all season and as his last few starts were ok, he has just played the Phillies as a good team.



I don't expect Lowe to allow too many runs as his career ERA vs the Astros is good at 3.10, but I don't expect the Braves to score many as well. They seem to be out of sync as they went 1-6 lately and their wild card chances are pretty small. They aren't too many games back, but there are other contenders in between and they can't expect all of them to struggle. Houston is out of the race, too, but they managed to play well in their last few games, and I expect them to keep on playing well, at least as long as they are at home. And posting a winning record is manageable for them if they keep winning their home games.



So I don't expect many runs and the better pitcher on the home side. Why play the run line and not the under you may ask. It's just because of the first two games in this series. The first won was won by Atlanta by 2-1, the second one went to Houston by the same result. Now, Houston is not a great pitcher park and as only a combined six runs have been scored in those two games I am carious to take the under(remember there is still a bullpen). And both of those games were won by a run so chances that this will happen again are rather small. That's why I take Houston on the run line at 2.86 or +186 with 1 units. Good Luck



DG