7/23/2009

Play on Minnesota Twins (2.37, +237)

Today we have a nice matchup with the Twins visiting the Angels. First, let`s face the situation here.
The Twins played in Oakland yesterday while the Halos where in Kansas, so althouogh LA has the home game, they still had the longer way. They also had a very emotional win yesterday trailing 2-6 after the 6th Inning. So, this could be a typical letdown situation for them. On the other hand we have the Twins, and they lost yesterday against a usually average A's team in an embarrassing 16-1 blowout. Believe me, they will be very focused today.

If we look at the pitching duel, we see Scott Baker(8-7, 5.10) opposing Jered Weaver(10-3, 3.48). If we compare their numbers in the brackets, we see a clear advantage for LA. And even the H2H numbers look better for Weaver, but Baker had 2 bad starts lately, but should be back on track after holding a potent Texas Offense to one run in 8 Innings. I believe he could earn his first win in his 7th start against the Halos. Weaver on the other hand started great into the season, but in his last six starts he allowed 27 ERs in just 33.1 Innings. Amazingly to me, he still has this good ERA of 3.48 and, even more amazing: In those six start he still got 3 wins and only 1 loss, mostly because of great run support by his Offense.

So to me these factors fit very well. Again in short, we have a focused Twins Team after an embarrasing loss against an Angels Team that won late yesterday in a great comeback win and could be in a letdown situation. And, we have a good pitching Scott Baker who has come back on track against Weaver who is due to a loss after pitching bad lately which few noticed, because he still gained wins and his numbers are still good.

So, I´ll play 2 units on the Twins with odds of 2.37 (+137). Good Luck.

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