Free Pick: New York Jets ML

Record: 29-43, -11.50

Today's free pick will be on the New York Jets to win outright.

I read some analyses for that game and everywhere I saw people saying the Colts can't lose this one. Some said the Jets won't have the luck of two blown Field Goals again as was the case in San Diego. That may be true but the Chargers have still one of the best if offenses in the league, along with the Saints and Cards. So holding that offense to 17 points is very good and it's no coincidence that the Jets' defense is No 1 in the NFL. Others said there has never been a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. That's true as well, but some time it will happen, so why not now. Two years ago Eli Manning was close to a rookie and played pretty much like Sanchez now not throwing bombs and avoiding mistakes.

The Jets own the best defense and the best running game which will be a plus against Indy's bad run defense which kept Baltimore to less than 100 yards but an average of 4.6. This was because Baltimore fell behind early by two TDs and they had to throw. So it wasn't really good run defense by the Colts. This will be the key here for New York, not falling too far behind early. If Sanchez has to make big plays they'll fail, but the longer it is close the better are the Jets' chances. And Manning's targets aren't very playoff proven apart from Reggie Wayne who should be covered by Revis and Manning better not throw into his direction.

Nice value for the dog here which I will play at 4.11 or +311 with 2 units. Good Luck.

DG