Free Pick: Tennessee +14

Record: 25-37, -5.76


Nice spot tonight as I'll go with the Tennessee Volunteers visiting Alabama as my free pick.

The Volunteers come in at 3-3 and a 1-2 Conference record which looks average at best. On the other side we have the number 1 ranked Crimson Tide that's, of course, a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. Let's have a closer look on the teams.

Alabama has a good QB in Greg McElroy(59.5% coml., 1325Y, 9TDs, 3INTs) and a great RB in Mark Ingram(135R - 905Y, 8TDs) who averages 6.7YpR and posted unbelievably high numbers last week as he ran for 246 yards against good South Carolina. Despite these players it can be said that the best part of 'Bama is their Defense as it allows less than 12 points per game. In their last 5 games they allowed more than 7 points only once. For Tennessee we see QB Jonathan Crampton(57.6%, 1210Y, 13TDs, 9INTs) and RB Montario Hardesty(125R, 672Y, 6TDs) at the key positions. Their Defense looks good enough to compete as 26 against Auburn was the most they have allowed so far. In their losses they have never been blown out. However we can say few about their road performance as 5 of their six games have been at home so far. On the one hand they lost that road game 13-23, on the other hand it was against the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators.

If we look at the trends we have an edge for Tennessee as they've never been blown out, as said, and Alabama sitting back with leads, as it seems. In their last few games their scoring as well as their win margin steadily went down. As you can see from last week, they get an early lead and then Ingram keeps running and running and running. He picks up enough first downs and the Defense doesn't allow much so they were still able to pick up easy wins. Now Tennessee gave up some rushing yards against Auburn(224) and Florida(208) but those teams needed 48 or 44 rushed to put up these numbers. Those games looked like Alabama games as Tigers and Gators got leads and then kept running. Today it could go the same way. But I think Tennessee will be much more motivated against nation's No 1 team, while 'Bama just wants to get a win somehow to head into a bye week and prepare for the matchup against their hardest opponents from LSU who are hunting them at 5-1, 3-1.

One last point: we see Tennessee at 1-2 and Alabama at 4-0 in SEC, which looks like a mismatch. But if you look closer at it, you'll find out this: if you combine their opponents' records Alabama's wins came against teams with a combined 5-10 record while Tennessee's record came against teams that are a combined 9-4!

Now, this is an especially strong play for me so I will play the spread of +14 at 1.90 or -111 with 5 units as I see the only possibility for Tennessee not covering in giving up too many turnovers. Shouldn't happen... Good Luck.

DG