Record: 33-44, -0.10
Today’s free pick will be on the Giants beating Atlanta by more than 3.
Atlanta played a great regular season last year, but when it came to the playoffs they stumbled against Super Bowl Champs Green Bay. This year they did a good job as well posting a 10-6 record which is better than the Giants‘.
They have some nice weapons in RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White on offense. They put up the score at times but if you look closer at it, you can see they struggled against better teams. The only good teams they beat was Detroit and maybe Tennessee.
The Giants only had a 9-7 record qualifying for postseason play as the worst of then remaining NFC teams. Several weeks ago, nobody (including me) would have bet a cent on the Giants making the playoffs. Since then, however they played very focused and concentrated which reminds me of their Super Bowl run in 2007.
They are very balanced on offense and defense. With Eli Manning they have a very smart playmaker who even showed late game comeback abilities, especially lately. With Jacobs there’s also a good RB as well as a nice receiving staff – among them deep threat Cruz on whom the Falcons defense has to have two or four eyes.
On defense they have a tough line which can put a lot of pressure on Turner. The secondary behind Rolle is also very smart.
In all, the Giants have the home field advantage against a Falcons team that usually plays on turf. The Giants mediocre record shouldn’t scare you as they lost to some bad teams but won or played tough against the good teams as Green Bay when they lost 35-38, the same result they lost to the Patriots in 2007. I don’t believe in such things but when I see them playing a Super Bowl run as in 2007 wouldn’t surprise me that much. Giants –3 is the pick with 3 units at 2.07 or +107.
DG
2/11/2011
Free Pick: New York Knicks ML
Record: 32-44, -4.27
This is my free pick for tonight’s matchup between the New York Knicks hosting the champs from LA.
The Lakers are on a long road trip which includes seven games. They’ve already played three of them winning all of those contests. Despite the Lakers rolling right now I like the Knicks here. LA won its last game in Boston which is always a big game, especially the last few years as these two teams dominate the league. Additionally, the Celtics won a few days earlier in LA so this was important and a revenge game for the guys around Kobe. They played very hard and got the win in a good defensive effort. So this could be a letdown spot for them as well as a sandwicher as their next game will be in Orlando, a contender as well.
The Knicks on the other hand didn’t play well lately, but they are good at home and they have the revenge factor on their sides tonight. A few weeks ago they were crushed in LA, so they should want some payback here.
The Knicks with the revenge factor against the tired Lakers off a big game yesterday in a letdown and sandwich spot is the play here. I will take them at 2.38 or +138 with 3 units.
Good Luck.
DG
This is my free pick for tonight’s matchup between the New York Knicks hosting the champs from LA.
The Lakers are on a long road trip which includes seven games. They’ve already played three of them winning all of those contests. Despite the Lakers rolling right now I like the Knicks here. LA won its last game in Boston which is always a big game, especially the last few years as these two teams dominate the league. Additionally, the Celtics won a few days earlier in LA so this was important and a revenge game for the guys around Kobe. They played very hard and got the win in a good defensive effort. So this could be a letdown spot for them as well as a sandwicher as their next game will be in Orlando, a contender as well.
The Knicks on the other hand didn’t play well lately, but they are good at home and they have the revenge factor on their sides tonight. A few weeks ago they were crushed in LA, so they should want some payback here.
The Knicks with the revenge factor against the tired Lakers off a big game yesterday in a letdown and sandwich spot is the play here. I will take them at 2.38 or +138 with 3 units.
Good Luck.
DG
1/23/2011
Free Play: Pittsburgh -4
Record: 31-44, -8.12
This is a late pick as I see Green Bay having the big lead in Chicago.
I saw the Jets playing two emotional games against the Colts with revenge on their minds for the Conference Championship loss last year, while last week they had revenge on their minds as well playing at the Pats where they were blown out badly during the season. Probably, they are a bit exhausted which could show later in the game. They don't have the revenge factor here as they beat Pittsburgh at the same place as tonight. So this time it should be the Steelers to take revenge. They had an off week and played their rivals Baltimore last week. In the beginning they looked a bit rusty but later in that game they came back to turn the game around.
Another thing is the Packers seemingly to win in Chicago. It is very improbable that two no 6 seeded teams march on through the playoffs to the SuperBowl winning all games on the road. So if Green Bay wins and covers its spread I will take Pittsburgh at -4 and odds of 1.962 or -104 with 4 units. If the Bears turn the game around I will go down to 2 units. Good Luck
DG
This is a late pick as I see Green Bay having the big lead in Chicago.
I saw the Jets playing two emotional games against the Colts with revenge on their minds for the Conference Championship loss last year, while last week they had revenge on their minds as well playing at the Pats where they were blown out badly during the season. Probably, they are a bit exhausted which could show later in the game. They don't have the revenge factor here as they beat Pittsburgh at the same place as tonight. So this time it should be the Steelers to take revenge. They had an off week and played their rivals Baltimore last week. In the beginning they looked a bit rusty but later in that game they came back to turn the game around.
Another thing is the Packers seemingly to win in Chicago. It is very improbable that two no 6 seeded teams march on through the playoffs to the SuperBowl winning all games on the road. So if Green Bay wins and covers its spread I will take Pittsburgh at -4 and odds of 1.962 or -104 with 4 units. If the Bears turn the game around I will go down to 2 units. Good Luck
DG
1/08/2011
Free Pick: New York Jets ML
Record: 30-44, -9.27
As the first underdog pulled the upset I actually don’t wanna put a play on the second underdog as well. But as I’m pretty convinced of the second one I will put a small play on them.
I had the Jets a year ago as they took a 17-3 lead but were worn down by the potent Colts offense. This year the Jets are even better in my eyes as their offense is not that one dimensional as last year. Their defense is still very strong while the Colts had big problems during the regular season. They had to fight for each and every single game, especially lately. Maybe that shows today later in the game. The only reason they won their division was the great play by Manning.
The one thing that moves me to pick the Jets again is the revenge situation. It seems that they are very hungry and motivated for that game. I will put a unit on the Jets at 2.15 or +115.
Good Luck.
DG
As the first underdog pulled the upset I actually don’t wanna put a play on the second underdog as well. But as I’m pretty convinced of the second one I will put a small play on them.
I had the Jets a year ago as they took a 17-3 lead but were worn down by the potent Colts offense. This year the Jets are even better in my eyes as their offense is not that one dimensional as last year. Their defense is still very strong while the Colts had big problems during the regular season. They had to fight for each and every single game, especially lately. Maybe that shows today later in the game. The only reason they won their division was the great play by Manning.
The one thing that moves me to pick the Jets again is the revenge situation. It seems that they are very hungry and motivated for that game. I will put a unit on the Jets at 2.15 or +115.
Good Luck.
DG
Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks ML
Record: 29-44, -13.50
After a long break I am back posting the first wild card game.
I'll back the Seahawks here on the money line. As you know they are the first team ever to get to the play offs despite posting a losing record. They haven't done anything special this year while the Saints did a good job as the reigning champs. I cannot give you any convincing stats that will point to Seattle as the winning team but it is always dangerous to play against such teams. It is a pick based on psychological opportunities as I call them. I remember a few years ago when I cashed with the Giants when they went to the Super Bowl. They were the dogs in each post season contest but developed a winner mentality.
The same effect could play a part today as nobody believes in Seattle. They are a play off team that gets 10 points at home! So if they lose it is no desaster, they've got nothing to lose. In contrary, they have the chance to kick out the reigning champs. I'm sure they will fight for their lives and maybe the Saints underestimate the challenge they will be facing. The weather will be cold and possibly wet which won't be negative for Seattle although I believe NO will be ready for that.
To sum it up, I think odds are way too high on Seattle and often we found the case that defending champs were kicked out because everyone puts in everything against them. Maybe the Saints are cool enough to beat them, but if they do so it will be a blowout so the spread doesn't look attractive to me, while a shot with a unit on the Seahawks at 5.23 or +423 is worth tonight.
Stay tuned as there may be a second pick tonight. Tomorrow it's too difficult to call a winner, but the Jets/Colts matchup might be a good opportunity.
After a long break I am back posting the first wild card game.
I'll back the Seahawks here on the money line. As you know they are the first team ever to get to the play offs despite posting a losing record. They haven't done anything special this year while the Saints did a good job as the reigning champs. I cannot give you any convincing stats that will point to Seattle as the winning team but it is always dangerous to play against such teams. It is a pick based on psychological opportunities as I call them. I remember a few years ago when I cashed with the Giants when they went to the Super Bowl. They were the dogs in each post season contest but developed a winner mentality.
The same effect could play a part today as nobody believes in Seattle. They are a play off team that gets 10 points at home! So if they lose it is no desaster, they've got nothing to lose. In contrary, they have the chance to kick out the reigning champs. I'm sure they will fight for their lives and maybe the Saints underestimate the challenge they will be facing. The weather will be cold and possibly wet which won't be negative for Seattle although I believe NO will be ready for that.
To sum it up, I think odds are way too high on Seattle and often we found the case that defending champs were kicked out because everyone puts in everything against them. Maybe the Saints are cool enough to beat them, but if they do so it will be a blowout so the spread doesn't look attractive to me, while a shot with a unit on the Seahawks at 5.23 or +423 is worth tonight.
Stay tuned as there may be a second pick tonight. Tomorrow it's too difficult to call a winner, but the Jets/Colts matchup might be a good opportunity.
Abonnieren
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